Liberal Party of Canada Leadership

[ballz]

What about a third option ... moving further right on economics / fiscal policies, while remaining left / progressive on social issues ... in other words, the new Progressive Conservatives.

Not many people in Canada are on board with the social policies of the Conservative Party, and they know it, that's why they always try and focus everything on the economy, and deflect most attention away from social issues.

 

[Edward Campbell]

What about a third option ... moving further right on economics / fiscal policies, while remaining left / progressive on social issues ... in other words, the new Progressive Conservatives.

Not many people in Canada are on board with the social policies of the Conservative Party, and they know it, that's why they always try and focus everything on the economy, and deflect most attention away from social issues.

I don't agree with any of your points.

First: the Stephen Harper Conservatives are occupying the "right on economics" and staking out the "centre" on social issues.

Second: many, many people in Canada are "on board" with the Tory social policies. But, most Canadians are not left or progressive on social issues; they are looking for the "centre" that the Conservatives are trying to define. There is, certainly, a progressive wing but it already belongs to the NDP. There are, broadly, two kinds of social conservatives in Canada: the religious right which is, largely in rural Canada and which does have some choices but, broadly, supports the Conservatives; and the New Canadians who have some quite conservative values on issues which do not, in most ways, coincide, at all, with the religious right. They appear, to me, to have moved into the Conservative camp. The social battleground is the "centre."

Third: the reason Prime Minister Harper focuses "everything" on the economy is because it is the ONLY issue that really matters right now; to focus his and his party's attention anywhere else would be irresponsible.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Not many people in Canada are on board with the social policies of the Conservative Party, and they know it, that's why they always try and focus everything on the economy, and deflect most attention away from social issues.

Last I checked, the key social issues which define us as Canadians (in the sense that they are different from the US) such as abortion, health care, gay marriage, etc weren't as clear cut as it is made to seem by the media... I may be quoting old data, but abortion and gay marriage were almost a 50/50 split for both in terms of actual support. 

That said, social issues such as the ones mentioned above, are, have been, and will continue to be window dressing and university level debating points that have no real bearing on the future... economics, as Mr. Campbell notes, is the only key issue of any real value, WAS the only issue of any value during the last several elections, and will continue to be the only issue of value. At the end people vote with the wallets unless times are VERY good 

 

[Good2Golf]

Well, since John Manley is out of the picture and Denis Codere and Dominic Leblanc would be sound but unpopular choices, it will be between Trudeau and Garneau.  Frankley, Garneau is a little too condescending, so I say "le Dauphin" should give it a go...

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is a somewhat fawning survey of Justin Trudea:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/justin-trudeaus-success-grounded-in-hard-work/article4576484/

I think that whoever eventually becomes Liberal leader (I am fairly sure it will be a French-Canadian) will, as many pundits say, find that the road to power leads through Quebec which means that the first enemy is the NDP, not the Conservatives. But, in order to appeal to Quebecers the conventional wisdom is that the Liberal Party of Canada must adopt a leftish economic policy which will not play well in "New Canada," West of the Ottawa River.

In the next election 225 of 338 seats will be West of the Ottawa River (42+34+14+14+121) "Old Canada," East of the Ottawa River will have only 113, 78 of them in Quebec; a majority requires 169 seats. It is, theoretically, possible to win a majority without having a single seat anywhere East of Ontario ~ very, very hard but mathematically possible. Give the Tories 10 safe seats in "Old Canada," then they need only 159 of the 225 in "New Canada," say 25 in BC, 32 in AB, 13 in SK, 11 in MB and 78 in ON; they currently have 21 in BC, 27 in AB, 13 in SK, 11 in MB and 73 in ON so the required gains are 4 of 8 new seats in BC, 5 of the 6 new seats in AB, no changes in SK and in MB and just 5 of the 15 new seats in ON. That result is clearly attainable - make it a bit easier and give the Tories 15 of the 113 seats in "Old Canada" and it becomes quite achievable. That being the case, the question becomes: can the new Liberal leader displace Mulcair and the NDP and return to Stornoway, which is a reasonable "intermediate objective?"

How to beat Mulcair? Two choices:

1. Attack his left wing/social democrat policies as being bad for Canada ~ this will not appeal to Quebec voters so the "intermediate objective" is unlikely to be attained; or

2. Go father left than the NDP and appeal to Quebec nationalism ~ this will not appeal to "New Canada," making the "final objective" (24 Sussex Drive in 2019) harder to achieve.

Rock, meet Hard Place.

Is your assessment based on the addition of more seats?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Yes.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Toronto Sun offers us their editorial cartoonist's look into the future:

http://storage.canoe.ca/v1/dynamic_resize/sws_path/suns-prod-images/1297317724630_COMICS.jpg?quality=80&stmp=1348960837169&size=650x
Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act
from the Toronto Sun

 

[ballz]

I don't agree with any of your points.

First: the Stephen Harper Conservatives are occupying the "right on economics" and staking out the "centre" on social issues.

Contrary to the current theme in Canada and the US, political parties can agree on certain things. I just don't see why the Liberals have to push further left on economics when its clear Canadians are feeling pretty right-wing about economics right now.

Second: many, many people in Canada are "on board" with the Tory social policies. But, most Canadians are not left or progressive on social issues; they are looking for the "centre" that the Conservatives are trying to define. There is, certainly, a progressive wing but it already belongs to the NDP. There are, broadly, two kinds of social conservatives in Canada: the religious right which is, largely in rural Canada and which does have some choices but, broadly, supports the Conservatives; and the New Canadians who have some quite conservative values on issues which do not, in most ways, coincide, at all, with the religious right. They appear, to me, to have moved into the Conservative camp. The social battleground is the "centre."

Perhaps I shouldn't have said left, I should have said "Left of where the Conservatives are." I think the "centre" that the Conservatives are trying to define is actually a shade to right of where the actual centre amongst the population is. This is where I think the Liberals could do themselves some good. Similar right-wing fiscal policy which is already proven to resonate with the Canadians, but more left of the Conservatives social policies, where the centre actually is.

Third: the reason Prime Minister Harper focuses "everything" on the economy is because it is the ONLY issue that really matters right now; to focus his and his party's attention anywhere else would be irresponsible.

While I agree that the economy is the biggest issue right now, if the PM Harper and the Conservatives felt that focussing everybody's attention on a certain social issue was to their advantage, then the would also give plenty of limelight to those issues, aka the LGR and "Tough-on-Crime," things that they knew would resonate with Canadians.

economics, as Mr. Campbell notes, is the only key issue of any real value, WAS the only issue of any value during the last several elections, and will continue to be the only issue of value. At the end people vote with the wallets unless times are VERY good

Of course, but what if two parties had very similar economic policies that you agreed with? How would you decide between the two?

 

[bridges]

I have to agree with ballz - my sense is that there's little appetite for the socially conservative policies that you see coming out from time to time, from the CPC.  Now if only there were a socially progressive and fiscally conservative party... 

"It helped him beat the heavily favoured Senator Patrick Brazeau in a charity boxing match this year."

Getting rather tired of hearing about that boxing match!  It's getting to be the equivalent of dad's pirouette behind Her Majesty.  I hope the authors are not seriously suggesting that it's relevant to this leadership campaign.

 

[Remius]

I have to agree with ballz - my sense is that there's little appetite for the socially conservative policies that you see coming out from time to time, from the CPC.  Now if only there were a socially progressive and fiscally conservative party... 

I'm not so sure about that.  Immigration reforms, as an example are being lauded by most as being a step in the right direction.  EI reforms, while not popular in some circles is another example of social policies where I think they hit the mark.

 

[bridges]

I'm not so sure about that.  Immigration reforms, as an example are being lauded by most as being a step in the right direction.  EI reforms, while not popular in some circles is another example of social policies where I think they hit the mark.

A matter of opinion, of course.  Those examples have both social and financial implications - particularly the EI - and they have both positive and negative potential ramifications for our society, depending on whom you talk to.  I should have been more specific; I was thinking of things like the recently-defeated "let's study when life begins" motion.  I very much doubt we'd see that coming from the Liberals, much less the NDP or Green.

And as for Mr. Trudeau's vision for the country... too much more of this will help nobody (except the CPC):

:crickets:

 

[dapaterson]

I for one fully embrace the idea of Justin as leader of a political party and Prime Minister in 2015.

Imagine the cheering throngs at rallies!  Imagine the motivated young people getting involved in the political process!  Imagine the increased tourism in his hometown of Stratford, Ontario!


Yes, it's time.  Justin Bieber of leader of the Liberal Party of Canada!  You know that he wouldn't be getting the job by riding on his fathers coat-tails.

 

[bridges]

Yes, it's time.  Justin Bieber of leader of the Liberal Party of Canada!  You know that he wouldn't be getting the job by riding on his fathers coat-tails.

OK, but no more chugging milk before political rallies.       

 

[ModlrMike]

I should have been more specific; I was thinking of things like the recently-defeated "let's study when life begins" motion.  I very much doubt we'd see that coming from the Liberals, much less the NDP or Green.

I think you've misunderstood why that particular motion was allowed to come forward:

a. the PM needed to show that the party was generally not in favour of the motion;
b. the PM needed to allow the back bench social conservatives some ability to show their constituents that they still mattered, and
c. it is not in the nature of the torries to stifle free speech because they dislike the content of the speech.

Of the three enumerated points, I think point "a" was the most important. This is the theatre of politics where what one is seen to do is often as valuable as what one actually does.

 

[bridges]

I think you've misunderstood why that particular motion was allowed to come forward:

a. the PM needed to show that the party was generally not in favour of the motion;
b. the PM needed to allow the back bench social conservatives some ability to show their constituents that they still mattered, and
c. it is not in the nature of the torries to stifle free speech because they dislike the content of the speech.

Of the three enumerated points, I think point "a" was the most important. This is the theatre of politics where what one is seen to do is often as valuable as what one actually does.

Your point "a" proves my point as well - that this wouldn't even be necessary in any other major party, because it would never have come up in the first place.  I doubt the action of defeating such motions wholly undoes the negative effects of their being raised at all, in spite of the PM's best efforts.

Ultimately all of this is a sidebar discussion, but I think the new Liberal leader & the party as a whole will only benefit from any more socially conservative motions from the CPC back-bench, even if they are just an exercise.

 

[Edward Campbell]

A significant slice of the CPC back bench, and some of the front bench too, have strong social conservative credentials. The Liberals used to have many of a similar bent, see e.g. Tom Wappel, but Jean Chretien and Paul Martin pretty much drove them out, despite the wishes of their constituents.

I repeat there are two separate and distinct social conservative communities in Canada:

1. One is largely rural and almost entirely Christian; and

2. The second is centered on the new Canadian communities. While one or two issues overlap, a distaste for public recognition/celebration of gay pride for example, they have strongly different views on others, like abortion.

The first group, despite parties like Christian Heritage, really has nowhere to go but they bring their firmly held beliefs to the Conservatives. The second group is much sought after by all three parties ~ the Conservatives seem to have them , for now, especially in suburban Ontario and in the suburbs around Vancouver.

I, personally, am a social liberal and I rather dislike the Christian right but most social conservative are, in all other respects, pretty normal Canadians and if they can put up with my social views then I can accept theirs. That is something which is not possible in the NDP or in the modern Liberal Party of Canada, and both parties are intellectually worse off for excluding ideas they don't like.

 

[Edward Campbell]

This non news is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1264831--justin-trudeau-to-kick-off-liberal-leadership-campaign-in-quebec-b-c-and-ontario

Justin Trudeau to kick off Liberal leadership campaign in Quebec, B.C. and Ontario

Susan Delacourt
Ottawa Bureau

OTTAWA—Justin Trudeau is launching his bid to be Liberal leader with a call for the party to reclaim its role as the voice of Canada’s middle class.

At a Quebec community centre in his home riding of Papineau on Tuesday evening, Trudeau will confirm the worst-kept secret of Canadian politics and announce he is running to lead the Liberal party.

He will also be kicking off his campaign this week in Mississauga and Richmond, B.C., in rallies that are expected to attract large crowds.

“We’re just hoping that people who are curious or who want to see what he’s all about will come out to see him, and gauge whether they want to support him,” said former Liberal MP Navdeep Bains, who is co-hosting the Mississauga event on Thursday evening, along with fellow former MP Omar Alghabra.

Trudeau, son of a prime minister who led the Liberals from 1968 to 1984, reportedly decided in August to take the plunge into the leadership race and has amassed an organization ready to move into high gear this week. Observers and potential rivals will be watching closely to see just how large and formidable that organization is — and whether anyone will stand a chance next to the candidate dubbed the one with star power.

Last week, a mere hint of Trudeau’s intention to announce his candidacy started his name trending internationally on social media.

In the speech Trudeau is set to deliver in all three rallies this week, the 40-year-old MP is expected to set himself a challenge that on the surface seems contradictory — to get people fired up about the moderate middle of Canadian politics, the Liberals’ traditional spot on the political spectrum.

Trudeau also reportedly wants to attract people who are turned off politics altogether — especially those who have tuned out the Liberals in the past decade, as the party fell to third place in the Commons for the first time in its history.

Very deliberately, Trudeau is visiting two areas of big population growth in Canada for his first two stops after Montreal — regions set to get more seats in the House of Commons when the 2015 election is held.

Mississauga is due to get one more seat under the redrawn electoral map for 2015, while Richmond is being broken into two new ridings in British Columbia.

Members of Trudeau’s team say they believe the next election will be fought in these burgeoning population centres and the goal of any new Liberal leader will be to prove that he or she is competitive there.

These are also places where newcomers to Canada have settled, another constituency the Liberals feel they have lost to aggressive courting efforts by the Conservatives the past few years.

Though the contest doesn’t officially get under way until the middle of November, several contenders have already indicated their intention to run, including Deborah Coyne, Shane Geschiere and Jonathan Mousley.

Two other Montreal MPs are also considering their chances — Marc Garneau, who was Canada’s first man in space, and Denis Coderre, a former cabinet minister in previous Liberal governments. British Columbia MP Joyce Murray has also become more seriously interested in being a candidate in recent weeks, and question marks still hang over MPs such as Dominic LeBlanc and David McGuinty, on whether they will run.

Former MP and leadership candidate Martha Hall-Findlay has also said she will run if she can clear her debts from the last race and raise enough for a new campaign. Other possible contenders include former Liberal candidates David Bertschi and Taleeb Noormohamed, as well as Toronto lawyer George Takach.

  The middle class?  :

 

[Rifleman62]

Susan must be just slobbering at this news. For the last few years she had invent things to write. Now she can sing the joyous news of "Trudeau"!! And there will be many others in the media party joining her.

 

[ModlrMike]

I have the distinct impression this will turn into another coronation. Will they never learn?

 

[GAP]

Susan must be just slobbering at this news. For the last few years she had invent things to write. Now she can sing the joyous news of "Trudeau"!! And there will be many others in the media party joining her.

On power play tonight she was almost having an organism espousing the attributes of dear Justin.....