Liberal Party of Canada Leadership

[a_majoor]

Jean Chrétien was ousted as party leader by Paul Martin Jr, and resigned as party leader and PM in 2003, handing over the reigns to Mr Dithers, a choice many Liberals probably regret now......

 

[a_majoor]

A look at the leadership race to date. All I can say is they will get what they pay for...

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/03/michael-den-tandt-justin-trudeaus-last-obstacle-is-the-threat-of-complacency/

Michael Den Tandt: Justin Trudeau’s last obstacle is the threat of complacency

Michael Den Tandt, Postmedia News | 13/03/03 7:19 PM ET
More from Postmedia News

Justin Trudeau speaks at the Liberal party leadership debate in Halifax on Sunday. The critical differences between Trudeau and the rest of the field are neither his face, nor his hair. They are organization and a calculated populism that is at odds with his pedigree.

Justin Trudeau is the Liberal party’s Hail Mary pass: Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair, both smart, battle-tested warriors, will have him for a snack. Or he will go supernova. This is the argument. But it grows increasingly shaky, it seems to me, based on the available evidence.

Following another debate in Halifax Sunday, from which Trudeau emerged with nary a scratch to his Teflon waistcoat, this is what now becomes intriguing: the lengths to which the man’s detractors will go to discount his political skills, because of how he looks, and the spelling of his last name.

Trudeau is routinely castigated for lack of substance. In fact, he’s sticking to the classic leadership-race playbook, employed with success by Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien in their time: Give the punters a broad, simple frame that defines where you stand on issues; get to know as many as you can; raise money; and organize, organize, organize.

What is that frame? Trudeau has cast himself as a moderately libertarian Liberal – a “traditional” liberal, as his key advisor, Gerry Butts, has said. That will make him philosophically palatable to swing voters. At the same time, he rejects the “top-down” policy process of recent Grit regimes. Implicit is that no Green Shift, or similarly unpalatable plank, will appear in the next Liberal red book. Remind you of anyone?

    Grit economic policy in 2015 is liable to look something like Harper economic policy

Neither Trudeau nor his people will concede this. But Grit economic policy in 2015 is liable to look something like Harper economic policy — save for tweaking and packaging. Why? Because red-meat rhetoric aside, Harper & Co. haven’t been much interested in bucking centrist public opinion, either. If popular sentiment leads policy, and sentiment is broadly centrist, then the “new” Liberal party’s policies will be broadly centrist, with a socially progressive inflection. It’s simple logic.

What Trudeau will offer that’s different, it seems to me, is a “fresh” approach to government — as his marketing will have it, “youthful” and “engaged,” as opposed to “closed” or “top-down.” The core of the strategy will be democratic reform, based on the already-released plan to restore power to individual MPs. This will go before the voters, by the way, in year nine of the Harper regime. Think Dalton McGuinty in Ontario, circa 2003, after nearly a decade of difficult Mike Harris reforms.

Let’s take stock of the Dauphin as horseflesh, as the campaign enters its home stretch. Yes, to repeat the sophistry, he has the hair, though now chopped short to make him look more serious. He’s also better prepared, more comfortable on his feet, more easily bilingual (with the exception perhaps of Garneau) and sharper at reading audiences than any of his competitors.

His teams are better organized, and better at fundraising than the rest of the field combined. He’s been planning this for months — since long before he announced, and long before the famous boxing match. What does that suggest about his thought process?

Related

    Trudeau blasts Garneau over ‘negative campaign’ in penultimate Liberal debate
    John Ivison: Justin Trudeau has a lock on leadership — and a policy-free campaign
    ‘My values and my heart are in the right place’: Justin Trudeau says he’s not worried by ‘cynics’

He understands tactics: He has managed to keep ahead of the one issue in this race, so far, that could have hurt him — his speaking for hire, during his time as an MP — by pre-emptively releasing his financials. And he comes with an over-arching strategy, linked to policy generation, to channel mainstream aspirations. That is the underlying import of “the middle class,” in Trudeau’s rhetoric. It is the reason why he has thus far mainly stuck to generalities, despite the barbs, I suspect. He wants to preserve freedom of movement to chart policy, and to deviate from past party dogma when necessary.

The critical differences between Trudeau and the rest of the field are neither his face, nor his hair. They are organization and a calculated populism that is at odds with his pedigree. His nearest political antecedent is Jean Chretien — not Pierre Trudeau. His appearance and celebrity are tools, which he has used time and time again this past year to gull opponents into complacency. Marc Garneau discovered that Sunday when, after weeks of attacking Trudeau for his lack of “substance,” he found himself branded, at a critical juncture in the race, the candidate of negativity. Ouch. Martha Hall Findlay, who jabbed Trudeau for his wealth in the previous outing and was tarred and feathered for her efforts, this time stuck to safer ground.

Joyce Murray is now the lone remaining contender still apparently going for broke. Her pitch is electoral co-operation with the New Democrats and Greens. But Mulcair has zero interest in electoral co-operation. Neither do the vast majority of his MPs. They want to form government on their own hook. As a practical possibility for 2015, therefore, co-operation is not on. In making Murray leader Liberals and Liberal supporters would be committing seppuku. They won’t do that.

This leaves us now, as at the outset, with one outcome. Trudeau wins. It’s over. The threat of complacency, for the remaining weeks of this campaign, will be his greatest obstacle.

 

[ModlrMike]

It's easy to emerge from a fight without a scratch when nobody's carrying knives.

 

[GAP]

When's the coronation again?  :

 

[Remius]

When's the coronation again?  :

It pretty much happened a few months ago.

Trudeau as leader will likely garner him some seats in Quebec eroding the NDP base.  He has no chance out west except for maybe some Sask and BC seats.  The east coast will likely vote for his party with him at the helm and if he can take enough Ontario seats...well...

The problem for the NDP is that so far we've seen one member cross over to the Bloc, and I suspect that we will see a slow trickle over the next few years.  A trickle that will hurt Mulcair no matter how good he might seem to some.  The NDP will have to work hard to balance out that they are a federal option without pissing off the seperatists in their midsts.  All of that will be to Trudeau's benefit.

With Trudeau surviving a bloodless leadership campaign, he remains undamaged goods.  The campaign has also served to give more name recognition to Garneau, Finlay, Murray etc. surrounding himself with a strong team of potential Ministers in waiting.

Also Trudeau has created (call this leadership race a practice run) a campaign team that is media saavy and likely has a plan to deal with the negative attacks he will likely face from the Conservative communications machine.

I mentioned this before, as long as Trudeau can get his party into second place, or even better for him, reduce the Conservatives to a minority situation we may see him as the PM following Harper.

 

[ModlrMike]

I mentioned this before, as long as Trudeau can get his party into second place, or even better for him, reduce the Conservatives to a minority situation we may see him as the PM following Harper.

Perhaps, but the Liberals have a habit of sacrificing their leaders on the altar of all or nothing. It may be premature to think that Trudeau might be immune from that fate.

 

[Remius]

Of course but desperation makes people do strange things.  The liberals have never been in third place.  Always first or second.  The advantage for Trudeau is that there is nowhere to go but up.  If they remain in third after the next election I would agree.  Previous leaders from Chretien on saw a steady erosion and or loss.  He, by making gains, will provide the first tangible tastes of victory.  All he has to do is set expectations low enough to ensure the semblance of solid victory.  If he can motivate the apathetic voters, even more so.

 

[a_majoor]

Not sure if this is a good or bad thing for the Young Dauphin, but since the LPC has been running on empty for up to 20 years (it is telling that the core of EVERY election campaign except for Stephan Dion's quixotic attempt has been the 1993 Red Book), it is actually difficult for contenders like Marc Garneau or Martha Hall Findley to "sell" their policy platforms as being in any way "Liberal". There is no philosophical or intellectual core for them to hang their policies on, and indeed with the tectonic shifts by the CPC and NDP to close off the middle, we see Marc Garneau articulating policy proposals that would fit comfortably in any pronouncements by Thomas Mulcair, while Martha Hall Findley should be standing right beside Jim Flaherty when she pronounces on Marketing Boards.

Since there is no core values for the LPC to defend, not making any policy pronouncements really has no downside: there is nothing to defend or repudiate anyway. Until the LPC fixes that (and they have wasted all the time since 2006 when it finally became obvious to everyone that they had lost their way), then the LPC will only be able to fight tactical battles in selected ridings in order to win seats and grow in Parliament; but they are up against a powerful strategic machine in the form of a well funded and demographically ascendent CPC. The NDP will also be fighting tactically for all their Quebec seats to maintain their power base (as well as strategically to grab Green and Orange Liberal voters across Canada), and the BQ will be back as a spoiler as well.

Will legions of Justin Beiber fans be induced to vote Liberal? Will there be enough of them to make a difference? My prediction is the Government and Opposition will tag team the Young Dauphin in the house to expose his lack of maturity and decorum, constantly ridicule him for not having any plan and leave the LPC crushed yet again in 2015.

 

[Remius]

Thucydides: 

Very good point, but as well funded and demographically ascendent (which to be frank could decend just as easily) as the CPC might be now, Trudeau's machine should not be dismissed or underestimated.  His machine is proving to be quite effective at getting their message (as vague as it might be) out to the masses.

If this is even mildly accurate http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/03/04/pol-trudeau-supporters-numbers.html
then I think the Conservatives and NDP will be facing a stronger contender than some would like to portray him as.  Those numbers is accurate are hard to ignore.  Even Lowell Green is shocked lol.

He could very well pull and Obama and if so people couldn't give a damn about core values.  They'll drink the Hope kool aid.  then again once he's the leader, he might just take the two years he has to formulate policy or play the waiting game, weather the storm until the campaign starts.

 

[a_majoor]

There is definitely that  aspect to look for, but I wonder just how engaged the "Justin Beiber" vote actually is. The sort of people I run into at political gatherings are quite focused and actively engaged (and actively engaged right now, as we speak); while the Justin Beiber crowd drifts along.

2015 could well be a battle between a disorganized mob and packs of wolves and velociraptors. Certainly there will be a percentage of people who will come into the campaign asking questions and suddenly discovering that the answers are not coming from the Young Dauphin's camp. Others will be carved off by better "shiny toys" that have been crafted in CPC and NDP workshops for years (especially the NDP, which has only benefited from the LPC's relentless leftwards drift), while others will just become bored of the whole thing when they see there is nothing inside the tent once the Young Dauphin has induced them to come inside (so they walk right out again).

And of course no matter what, for the LPC the key battlefield is Quebec, so any time and resources they take away from that battle is a net loss for them.

 

[Remius]

There is definitely that  aspect to look for, but I wonder just how engaged the "Justin Beiber" vote actually is. The sort of people I run into at political gatherings are quite focused and actively engaged (and actively engaged right now, as we speak); while the Justin Beiber crowd drifts along.

This will be telling come the convention. If JT does indeed have 150 000 supporters (keeping in mind that these are not paying party members) it will be important to see how many actually cast a vote in his favour.  If that many (or a significant chunk) non-party members make the effort to vote for him it might be a sign of things to come, considering that if he can get that many to come out and engage in the political process in what is more or less an internal affair.  The true measure of those numbers will be on voting day.  As well it would seem he is amassing quite a war chest. 

Defining him and is team as a disorganised mob in the next election is not giving him the approriate credit I think.  That line of thinking could be dangerous as it lulls us into thinking this thing is in the bag come 2015.  I think after he wins the leadership, the Trudeau machine will already be focusing on 2015.  He's been able to pre-emptively stop a variety of attacks against him and he is playing to the masses.  Rather than a disorganised mass It will be a mass but with very shrewd and elusive targets that might just keep the wolves and veloceraptors chasing their tails unless the same packs of wolves and super reptiles fully understand that they are not facing the same prey as before. 

I for one see him as a very real threat to both the Conservatives and the NDP. 

 

[Journeyman]

Will legions of Justin Beiber fans be induced to vote Liberal?

I'm having trouble aligning "Beiber fans" and "legal voting age."

 

[Fishbone Jones]

This will be telling come the convention. If JT does indeed have 150 000 supporters (keeping in mind that these are not paying party members) it will be important to see how many actually cast a vote in his favour.  If that many (or a significant chunk) non-party members make the effort to vote for him it might be a sign of things to come, considering that if he can get that many to come out and engage in the political process in what is more or less an internal affair.  The true measure of those numbers will be on voting day.  As well it would seem he is amassing quite a war chest. 

Defining him and is team as a disorganised mob in the next election is not giving him the approriate credit I think.  That line of thinking could be dangerous as it lulls us into thinking this thing is in the bag come 2015.  I think after he wins the leadership, the Trudeau machine will already be focusing on 2015.  He's been able to pre-emptively stop a variety of attacks against him and he is playing to the masses.  Rather than a disorganised mass It will be a mass but with very shrewd and elusive targets that might just keep the wolves and veloceraptors chasing their tails unless the same packs of wolves and super reptiles fully understand that they are not facing the same prey as before. 

I for one see him as a very real threat to both the Conservatives and the NDP.

There's a ton of non Liberals out there that joined just so they could vote and screw with the machine.

He's only going to be a threat because of his dad's "Trudeaumania'. He'll get the same vote from the same sort of young, empty headed types that voted for his dad because of charisma and not his substance or political and business acumen.

 

[a_majoor]

Just to clarify, the disorganized mob I was talking about is the "Justin Beiber" voters; not the various political war machines that are attempting to corral and brand them. Sorry for the ambiguity.

No doubt the Young Dauphin was selected by the LPC brain trust in the expectation that "star power" can draw enough votes to win an election. We will see just how well that works when the public is exposed to a few years of immature outbursts, political pandering to Quebec (to challenge the NDP/BQ) and a severe lack of vision or even a clear understanding of what the questions are, much less possible answers by the new leader.

Since the LPC brain trust is part of that crowd that believes the Montreal-Toronto axis is the natural core of Canada and have missed the demographic and economic boat that sailed to the West in the 1980's (sounds a bit like JRR Tolkien's history of Canada), they will have a difficult time convincing people that a personality cult is the way to go.

 

[a_majoor]

More on what I called the "Justin Beiber" crowd and how they will affect the LPC:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/08/kelly-mcparland-the-liberal-party-trusts-its-future-to-the-twittersphere/

Kelly McParland: The Liberal party trusts its future to the Twittersphere

Kelly McParland | 13/03/08 9:26 AM ET
More from Kelly McParland | @KellyMcParland

The Liberal party has been sending out press notices for days, lauding the fact almost 300,000 people have signed up to choose their new leader.

“It’s an incredible surge for us,” said spokeswoman Sarah Bain after party president Mike Crawley confirmed that 294,002 people are eligible to vote under the new rules, which welcome “supporters” who aren’t actual party members.

The exciting news from the Justin Trudeau campaign is that the Liberal leadership candidate has lured 150,000 new “supporters” to the party. That’s more than the NDP had in total memberships a year ago.

Of course, there’s a slight difference: Trudeau’s troops are “supporters”, not actual party members. As in, no commitment, just a willingness to temporarily lend some attention to the party as it looks for its latest leader. Still, that’s way more than any of the other candidates have managed, which is presumably the reason Trudeau’s handlers released the number just a few hours after the latest debate, which, of course, they say their guy won.

Crawley tweeted that there had been a “huge diverse pre-cutoff surge of supporters. Exceeded expectations. Need couple of days to scrub list.”

Justin Trudeau pre-empted the surprise a week ago, when his campaign reported he’d signed up 150,000 supporters all on his lonesome. Some of his backers say the real number is closer to 170,000. If everyone is telling the truth, that means more than 50% of the swollen ranks of eligible voters is already committed to backing Trudeau, leaving the seven other challengers to split the rest. You have to ask: So why bother with the formalities?

That’s just one of the oddities that’s emerged since the party decided to create a new class of “supporters.” Unlike party members, they don’t have to pay a fee or commit to the party itself. Consider that just 4,605 Liberal members voted on the final ballot of the 2006 leadership race, which Stéphane Dion won with 2,521 votes. There were 3,453 votes in the one and only 2003 ballot, won by Paul Martin with 94%. Michael Ignatieff’s elevation in 2009 was a formality, because all the other candidates pulled out rather than have an actual contest.

So, 300, 000 is a bit of an increase. And, if you’re a Liberal, do you really want those additional 290,000 or so newcomers — who weren’t interested enough to fork over $10 for full membership — deciding who will run the party? It’s no exaggeration to suggest this vote could make or break the Liberal party as a force in Canadian politics: one more failed leader could cement its place as a third-place party, lacking the money or ground troops to operate effectively as a national institution.

Given the lack of serious debate that has characterized the leadership race, it will be in the hands of the new leader to set the policies and the tone on which the party will base its future appeals to the electorate. Trudeau, the all-but-certain winner, has run a campaign that deliberately steered clear of substantive issues, arguing the first priority is to engage the voters. So the party, in effect, has  consigned its future to whoever proves most popular among people with a relatively marginal interest in politics, and who may wander off in pursuit of other passing fancies once the actual vote is over.

Kate Monfette, a member of Trudeau’s team, says his volunteer list alone tops 10,000, which is more people than chose the last three leaders combined. “But this number only represents the start of a process,” said Monfette. “We need to continue working hard to ensure that these people confirm their (membership) with the party and that they vote in April.”

It’s just a suggestion, but should you be letting people vote before they decide if they like the party, rather than after? It’s like, first you hand over the car, then you ask the driver if he wants to buy it. “Nah, I’ll just drive it for a year or two and bring it back when I’m finished.”

If so much of consequence was to be left to voters of such limited commitment, why didn’t the party  just commission a poll — or several — and give the job to whoever came out on top? It would have been faster and cheaper, and the outcome would probably have been the same.  For many — perhaps most — of the 300,000 “supporters”, clicking on “Justin” is no more meaningful than choosing between Katy Perry and Justin Bieber as celebrity of the day.

There must be Liberals who find this disconcerting. Politicians usually don’t mind posing with celebrities, but parties don’t usually recruit them as leader (Ronald Reagan being a possible exception). Sure it’s nice that 300,000 Canadians could be convinced to show some temporary interest in the party, but attention spans in the Twitter age are notoriously short. Is it really a good idea to invite them to pick your party leader before they move on to the next passing fad?

Justin Trudeau today; Kim Kardashian’s miscarriage scare tomorrow. Hey, and what’s with Taylor Swift dissing Liz Lemon? It’s politics by unique page views. To Liberals, is that progress?

 

[a_majoor]

Latest in the Liberal Drama Queen sweepstakes. I tend to agree with one of the commentators that the "glitch"is "supporters" have no commitment to the LPC so are simply not engaged enough to register to vote:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/03/12/trudeau-camp-calls-for-one-week-extension-blames-technical-problems-for-low-voter-registration/

Trudeau camp calls for one-week extension, blames technical problems for low voter registration

Joan Bryden, Canadian Press | 13/03/12 | Last Updated: 13/03/12 11:53 AM ET
More from Canadian Press

OTTAWA — Less than a third of the almost 300,000 members and supporters who signed up to choose the Liberal party’s next leader have so far registered to vote, prompting front-runner Justin Trudeau’s camp to complain about a host of technical glitches and request a one-week extension on registration.

With only three days left to register, just 89,000 had registered by Monday evening.

Federal Liberals have discovered the dangers of trying to win over the Twitterverse, with its notoriously short attention span and resistance to actual human interaction.

Just last week Justin Trudeau’s camp was crowing over his success in signing up 150,000 “supporters”, later increased to a possible 165,000. To be a “supporter,” all you have to do is agree to temporarily identify yourself as holding a limited interest in the Liberal leadership race, and who might emerge as the winner.

This week the numbers have taken a hit: of 294,000 brand new party “supporters” – including Justin’s total plus the other seven candidates — only 89,000 have roused themselves enough to actually register to vote. And the deadline for registering is Thursday.

Members and supporters must register by Thursday in order to be entitled to vote.

The party boasted last week that 294,000 people had signed up over the course of the leadership contest.

Most signed up free of charge, taking advantage of the party’s new supporter class, which was intended to broaden the Liberal base and engage more than just card-carrying, dues-paying members in the leadership vote.

While only a fraction so far have bothered to take the next step, spokeswoman Sarah Bain says the party is pleased with the number who’ve registered.

She said the party has seen “a healthy surge” in registrations as the Thursday deadline looms.

However, the Trudeau team — which has boasted of signing up as many as 165,000 supporters — has written the co-chairs of the leadership vote rules committee, expressing concern about numerous technical glitches that are preventing people from registering.

Related

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Trudeau representative Cyrus Reporter asks that registration be extended by one week and that the party “engage additional resources” to create a “high intensity phone bank” to contact anyone who has not yet registered.

It’s vital that new supporters’ first experience with the party be rewarding if there is to be any hope of them eventually becoming full-fledged party members, donors or election volunteers, Reporter argues.

“In effect, these new recruits are ‘kicking the tires’ of our party,” he writes.

“Unfortunately, unless action is taken, we will have an unacceptable number of supporters who will not be able to participate in the activity that they have signed up for: voting for our new leader.”

Reporter identifies a particular problem with the “tens of thousands” of supporters — in fact, the Trudeau team says its more than 100,000 — who signed up without providing email addresses. He says only five per cent of those people have registered so far.

The party had to use regular mail to send registration forms to people without email addresses. According to Reporter:

    The first batch of mailings included incorrect numerical codes that didn’t allow recipients to register.
    The final mailing was sent only last Thursday and Friday and many people still haven’t received their registration forms. Canada Post has told the Trudeau team that supporters outside Ontario won’t receive the forms until one or two days before Thursday’s registration deadline.
    English-speaking supporters in Quebec have received registration packages in French.

Reporter says individuals who did provide email addresses have also experienced some problems. For instance, some have found there is no “submit” button on their online registration form; the party has told them to update their browsers, with minimal advice on how to do that.

The Trudeau team submitted help requests on behalf of 124 supporters who did not receive an online registration email from the party, although they have valid email addresses.

As well, Reporter says the camp has received numerous emails from people who registered but did not receive confirmation. After reviewing the party’s registration list, he says about half of these individuals are not registered “even though they thought that they were.”

The Ontario wing of the party has also asked that the registration period be extended.

Bain said it’s up to the party’s board and leadership committee to determine if an extension on registration is warranted or feasible. As far as party officials are concerned, Thursday “is a major deadline,” she added.

Regardless of how many actually end up voting, interim Liberal leader Bob Rae last week said the supporter experiment has already been a success. It’s added thousands of new names and contact information to the party’s database, which is used to tap donors, recruit volunteers and target sympathetic voters during elections.

Still, the failure to register by two-thirds of supporters thus far suggests they have little attachment to the party, likely won’t vote for the next leader during the week of April 6 and may not prove to be particularly useful to the party after that.

From the comments

I think it's funny that grown men and women think that people signing up as liberal "supporters" - with absolutely no commitment of any kind - really care about voting. If these people cared enough to vote, they would have figured out a way by now. If they haven't, they're not really interested.

getting the names of 165K people really has no value JT.

 

[The Bread Guy]

MP Marc Garneau is dropping out of the race to lead the federal Liberals and will support his MP colleague Justin Trudeau, CBC News has learned.

The former astronaut and MP for Montreal's Westmount-Ville-Marie riding will make the announcement at 11 a.m. ET in Ottawa.

Thursday is the last day for supporters to register to vote. By Monday night, less than a third of those signed up with the party had registered to vote in the leadership contest ....

CBC.ca, 13 Mar 13

 

[GAP]

Smart move...he was not going to be able to overcome the Trudeaumania wave, so back off, show support, move on.

No sense in  :deadhorse:

 

[The Bread Guy]

Smart move...he was not going to be able to overcome the Trudeaumania wave, so back off, show support, move on.

And if one believes some recent numbers, it may be a coronation....

Garneau: survey of 6,000 Liberals shows Trudeau at 72%, Garneau 15%, Joyce Murray 7.4%, Martha Hall Findlay 5.2%

 

[Fishbone Jones]

He knew he couldn't win so he's going to back the annointed one, hoping to get a plumb shadow cabinet job in exchange for his support.

Yup, just the kinda guy, the kind with real conviction to a cause, that we should vote for :

Then they have the gall to wonder how they lost grip of the Canadian voter :facepalm: