New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy

[Nvlgzr]

Irving costs are not out of control. Not even close to it. We've barely paid anything. I think you'll find that once the bills start showing up the Parliamentary budget office estimates for the RCD will be shown to be way off. Especially as DND is now starting to break down contract costs for entire projects into separate line items in the press.

The main example is the submarine project. Korea is stating that the project will likely be around $2billion per submarine. The project estimates $60 -$100 billion for the life cycle costs over the entire submarines life. So $24 billion for the actual submarine leaving $36 - 76 billion for all the other stuff (ordinance, fuel, repair, maintenance, crew costs etc...). This is a much better way of explaining to taxpayers where the money goes.

The RCD program itself estimates are full lots of related spending, and once they get building there will be a better appreciation of the full costs. That program includes the Land Based Test Facility at Harlen Point (HMCS Assiniboine), the new training facility, the new secure stores facility, the missiles/ordinance as well as life cycle costs.

The gov't accrual accounting just really gives everyone sticker shock all the time.

We will never know the actual costs for Irving as they are not a publicly traded company and therefore have no obligation to publish their profit / loss statements. By the same token, the governments have not been very forthcoming on payments to Irving.

 

[Czech_pivo]

My point is that most bloggers here expect 12 subs to be a given. The government has not promised 12. 12 is what they are aiming for but in 10 years when a handful are delivered; expect the mood and budget to change. Remember back in Mulroney’s day we were expecting nuc subs and 18 city class frigates. We got 0 & 12. We are still paying for that decision.Just saying. Hanwha, TKMS and RCN shouldn’t get their hopes up until there is a firm contract with major penalties if the government decides to cut back.

True
Its no different than the current situation with the River class. They talk about 15 but we've only delivered cash for 3 so far and that's it. They could scrap the remaining 12 and pivot to building 12 of these CDC's, where we'd walk right back to the year 1999 in having 3 destroyers and in this case 12 'light' frigates. Viola! A Canadian solution to a Canadian issue. All it really takes is 3yrs from now a silver tongued US President who starts whispering soothing words in our PM's ear while promising a 'happy ending' to happen. For my 2 cents, I want the 'fear' to stay real for a long long while. I want people to wake to the reality that the world is a mean mean place, that bad things happen to good people and we need the 'watchers on the wall' to protect all of us.

 

[Nvlgzr]

True
Its no different than the current situation with the River class. They talk about 15 but we've only delivered cash for 3 so far and that's it. They could scrap the remaining 12 and pivot to building 12 of these CDC's, where we'd walk right back to the year 1999 in having 3 destroyers and in this case 12 'light' frigates. Viola! A Canadian solution to a Canadian issue. All it really takes is 3yrs from now a silver tongued US President who starts whispering soothing words in our PM's ear while promising a 'happy ending' to happen. For my 2 cents, I want the 'fear' to stay real for a long long while. I want people to wake to the reality that the world is a mean mean place, that bad things happen to good people and we need the 'watchers on the wall' to protect all of us.

I agree with your sentiment. As long as Trump remains belligerent, the push to scale up our forces will remain. Hopefully the next president will be just as forceful in pushing the buildup of NATO members contributions. Not sure what you meant by “happy ending”.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I agree with your sentiment. As long as Trump remains belligerent, the push to scale up our forces will remain. Hopefully the next president will be just as forceful in pushing the buildup of NATO members contributions. Not sure what you meant by “happy ending”.

Have a look at the urban dictionary term for it.

 

[suffolkowner]

Irving costs are not out of control. Not even close to it. We've barely paid anything. I think you'll find that once the bills start showing up the Parliamentary budget office estimates for the RCD will be shown to be way off. Especially as DND is now starting to break down contract costs for entire projects into separate line items in the press.

The main example is the submarine project. Korea is stating that the project will likely be around $2billion per submarine. The project estimates $60 -$100 billion for the life cycle costs over the entire submarines life. So $24 billion for the actual submarine leaving $36 - 76 billion for all the other stuff (ordinance, fuel, repair, maintenance, crew costs etc...). This is a much better way of explaining to taxpayers where the money goes.

I thought the actual sub is in the $1Billion range with another $Billion in initial spares etc.
Google AI says that Batch 2 sub 2,( number 5) cost $733 million USD
starting to get a feel for the massive scale of this procurement

 

[Czech_pivo]

I thought the actual sub is in the $1Billion range with another $Billion in initial spares etc.
Google AI says that Batch 2 sub 2,( number 5) cost $733 million USD
starting to get a feel for the massive scale of this procurement

I want to see Real Estate listings for houses to include the 'all in cost' over a 40yr life cycle.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I want to see Real Estate listings for houses to include the 'all in cost' over a 40yr life cycle.

Using AI to answer the question: 'What would be the total cost of ownership over a 40yr period for a house that was purchased for 1 million CAD in 2026.'

Based on 2026 Canadian real estate trends, a $1 million CAD home purchased with 20% down ($200,000) will likely have a 40-year total cost of ownership exceeding $2.8 million to $3.5 million+ CAD, depending on interest rates, inflation, and maintenance needs.

It goes on to break down a number of cost categories.

Principal + Down Payment - 1$ million CAD
Mortgage Interest - 600,000 - 900,000$
Property Taxes - 400,000 - 600,000$
Maintenance Repairs - 600,000 - 1,000,000$
Insurance & Utilities - 300,000 - 500,000$
Closing Costs - 30,000 - 50,000$

Estimated Costs - 2,930,000$ - 4,050,000$

This breakdown is over 500,000$ HIGHER than the first one, so using the Federal Governments funding logic, this would be the one that should be used. Imagine listing a house for 1$ million but you've got to include all of these other costs over a 40yr life cycle so that the potential buyers doesn't see a price of 1$ million they see the all in cost of 4$ million. How many people would switch over to renting instead of buying?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Interesting analysis - wonder what could be lifted and shifted over to our situation.

 

[GLP4X]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Davie's new final assembly hall is suppose to be 180m x 90m x 30m (under the crane). That should hold 2 Program Icebreakers (23.8m beam) and 2 St. Laurent-class (12.8m beam, CDC stand in) side be side with ~17m of work space between them. That would give us the production room for the CDCs, assuming module production keeps up / Ontario Shipyards gets subcontracted.