New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy

[Nvlgzr]

Irving costs are not out of control. Not even close to it. We've barely paid anything. I think you'll find that once the bills start showing up the Parliamentary budget office estimates for the RCD will be shown to be way off. Especially as DND is now starting to break down contract costs for entire projects into separate line items in the press.

The main example is the submarine project. Korea is stating that the project will likely be around $2billion per submarine. The project estimates $60 -$100 billion for the life cycle costs over the entire submarines life. So $24 billion for the actual submarine leaving $36 - 76 billion for all the other stuff (ordinance, fuel, repair, maintenance, crew costs etc...). This is a much better way of explaining to taxpayers where the money goes.

The RCD program itself estimates are full lots of related spending, and once they get building there will be a better appreciation of the full costs. That program includes the Land Based Test Facility at Harlen Point (HMCS Assiniboine), the new training facility, the new secure stores facility, the missiles/ordinance as well as life cycle costs.

The gov't accrual accounting just really gives everyone sticker shock all the time.

We will never know the actual costs for Irving as they are not a publicly traded company and therefore have no obligation to publish their profit / loss statements. By the same token, the governments have not been very forthcoming on payments to Irving.

 

[Czech_pivo]

My point is that most bloggers here expect 12 subs to be a given. The government has not promised 12. 12 is what they are aiming for but in 10 years when a handful are delivered; expect the mood and budget to change. Remember back in Mulroney’s day we were expecting nuc subs and 18 city class frigates. We got 0 & 12. We are still paying for that decision.Just saying. Hanwha, TKMS and RCN shouldn’t get their hopes up until there is a firm contract with major penalties if the government decides to cut back.

True
Its no different than the current situation with the River class. They talk about 15 but we've only delivered cash for 3 so far and that's it. They could scrap the remaining 12 and pivot to building 12 of these CDC's, where we'd walk right back to the year 1999 in having 3 destroyers and in this case 12 'light' frigates. Viola! A Canadian solution to a Canadian issue. All it really takes is 3yrs from now a silver tongued US President who starts whispering soothing words in our PM's ear while promising a 'happy ending' to happen. For my 2 cents, I want the 'fear' to stay real for a long long while. I want people to wake to the reality that the world is a mean mean place, that bad things happen to good people and we need the 'watchers on the wall' to protect all of us.

 

[Nvlgzr]

True
Its no different than the current situation with the River class. They talk about 15 but we've only delivered cash for 3 so far and that's it. They could scrap the remaining 12 and pivot to building 12 of these CDC's, where we'd walk right back to the year 1999 in having 3 destroyers and in this case 12 'light' frigates. Viola! A Canadian solution to a Canadian issue. All it really takes is 3yrs from now a silver tongued US President who starts whispering soothing words in our PM's ear while promising a 'happy ending' to happen. For my 2 cents, I want the 'fear' to stay real for a long long while. I want people to wake to the reality that the world is a mean mean place, that bad things happen to good people and we need the 'watchers on the wall' to protect all of us.

I agree with your sentiment. As long as Trump remains belligerent, the push to scale up our forces will remain. Hopefully the next president will be just as forceful in pushing the buildup of NATO members contributions. Not sure what you meant by “happy ending”.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I agree with your sentiment. As long as Trump remains belligerent, the push to scale up our forces will remain. Hopefully the next president will be just as forceful in pushing the buildup of NATO members contributions. Not sure what you meant by “happy ending”.

Have a look at the urban dictionary term for it.

 

[suffolkowner]

Irving costs are not out of control. Not even close to it. We've barely paid anything. I think you'll find that once the bills start showing up the Parliamentary budget office estimates for the RCD will be shown to be way off. Especially as DND is now starting to break down contract costs for entire projects into separate line items in the press.

The main example is the submarine project. Korea is stating that the project will likely be around $2billion per submarine. The project estimates $60 -$100 billion for the life cycle costs over the entire submarines life. So $24 billion for the actual submarine leaving $36 - 76 billion for all the other stuff (ordinance, fuel, repair, maintenance, crew costs etc...). This is a much better way of explaining to taxpayers where the money goes.

I thought the actual sub is in the $1Billion range with another $Billion in initial spares etc.
Google AI says that Batch 2 sub 2,( number 5) cost $733 million USD
starting to get a feel for the massive scale of this procurement

 

[Czech_pivo]

I thought the actual sub is in the $1Billion range with another $Billion in initial spares etc.
Google AI says that Batch 2 sub 2,( number 5) cost $733 million USD
starting to get a feel for the massive scale of this procurement

I want to see Real Estate listings for houses to include the 'all in cost' over a 40yr life cycle.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I want to see Real Estate listings for houses to include the 'all in cost' over a 40yr life cycle.

Using AI to answer the question: 'What would be the total cost of ownership over a 40yr period for a house that was purchased for 1 million CAD in 2026.'

Based on 2026 Canadian real estate trends, a $1 million CAD home purchased with 20% down ($200,000) will likely have a 40-year total cost of ownership exceeding $2.8 million to $3.5 million+ CAD, depending on interest rates, inflation, and maintenance needs.

It goes on to break down a number of cost categories.

Principal + Down Payment - 1$ million CAD
Mortgage Interest - 600,000 - 900,000$
Property Taxes - 400,000 - 600,000$
Maintenance Repairs - 600,000 - 1,000,000$
Insurance & Utilities - 300,000 - 500,000$
Closing Costs - 30,000 - 50,000$

Estimated Costs - 2,930,000$ - 4,050,000$

This breakdown is over 500,000$ HIGHER than the first one, so using the Federal Governments funding logic, this would be the one that should be used. Imagine listing a house for 1$ million but you've got to include all of these other costs over a 40yr life cycle so that the potential buyers doesn't see a price of 1$ million they see the all in cost of 4$ million. How many people would switch over to renting instead of buying?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Interesting analysis - wonder what could be lifted and shifted over to our situation.

 

[GLP4X]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Davie's new final assembly hall is suppose to be 180m x 90m x 30m (under the crane). That should hold 2 Program Icebreakers (23.8m beam) and 2 St. Laurent-class (12.8m beam, CDC stand in) side be side with ~17m of work space between them. That would give us the production room for the CDCs, assuming module production keeps up / Ontario Shipyards gets subcontracted.

 

[Underway]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Davie's new final assembly hall is suppose to be 180m x 90m x 30m (under the crane). That should hold 2 Program Icebreakers (23.8m beam) and 2 St. Laurent-class (12.8m beam, CDC stand in) side be side with ~17m of work space between them. That would give us the production room for the CDCs, assuming module production keeps up / Ontario Shipyards gets subcontracted.

Maybe? But honestly I would prefer them to build their icebreakers and CCG ships at a higher clip. If there is another RCN ship to be built after Preserver then it should be more JSS.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Maybe? But honestly I would prefer them to build their icebreakers and CCG ships at a higher clip. If there is another RCN ship to be built after Preserver then it should be more JSS.

Tankers are in short supply (no pun intended) everywhere. We would do well to be the ally with that contribution to the battle space.

 

[IKnowNothing]

There is documentation on this. From Leadmark 2050.





Obviously the specifics have been OBE but the base thinking hasn't changed.

RCD's are the expeditionary (away game) ships. They are to either join an allied task group or sail in an RCN TG of 3 or 4 (4 is the preferred option) around an AOR. The TG may or may not have a submarine attached to it and MPA support.

As far as specifics if they were to magically appear today they would join Standing NATO TG 1 or 2 for Operation Reassurance as a single ship or go to the Pacific with the OP HORIZON (and others). Contingency would bring the TG as described above together to do something a single ship cannot do.

There is also the potential that another nations ship joins our TG to provide their own capability (like we join others).

Thanks for this


The big thing that came to mind reading it and thinking about the scope creep in the CDC's was- if they end up a MiniFax with Strike length VLS and helo capability (big ifs)

• does it make sense to keep the 6 Rivers designated for the 1 per coast "Ready" ships, or could/ would that tasking be delegated to the CDCs?
• if you have 9 Helo equipped CDC's covering off defense of Canada, 6-9 Helo equipped Rivers for purely expeditionary and or task group use, does it make sense to change the loadout of the other 6-9 Rivers / introduce a more specialized sub class? Or if not "Hard" changes, incorporate increased modularity in the design so that certain Rivers could sail with no helo and increased VLS via Mk 70?

*For the sake of discussion I'm counting the national ASW helo fleet as a constant/constraint that doesn't change with CDC

 

[Rainbow1910]

Davie talked a huge game trying to muscle their way into the NSS, only to go entirely silent and apparently be unable to even deliver a pair of ferries to Transport Canada after gobbling up a bunch of money from the Quebec Government. At this point, Davie seems less interested in bringing its Canadian operation up to speed and getting on with its NSS contracts, and more interested in buying foreign shipyards to boost their overall profit abroad. They've already began farming out work that should be done in Canada to their new Finnish Helsinki yard for their Polar Icebreaker, to the point that we don't actually know how much work on this ship will actually be done in Canada.

Davie has 1 Polar Icebreaker and 6 Program Icebreakers, the latter is being farmed out abroad seemingly and the former haven't been started. Before we start talking about handing them CDC work, maybe they should get to work finishing their yard work and working on what they've already been given?

Commande de deux traversiers | La construction se fait attendre chez Davie

Pendant qu’il grandit en Finlande et aux États-Unis, Davie est enlisé dans un important contrat ici. Six ans après avoir obtenu une commande de Transports Canada pour deux traversiers parce qu’il était considéré comme le seul à pouvoir remettre la marchandise à temps, le chantier maritime de...

www.lapresse.ca

At the time, Ottawa cited the urgency of obtaining two ferries quickly to justify its decision to award the contract directly to Davie, without going through a traditional competitive tender.

This case, which concerns a contract worth several hundred million, dates back to 2019. The ferries Madeleine, which connects the islands of the same name to Prince Edward Island, and Holiday Island, which connects Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, are nearing the end of their useful life.

They "must be replaced as quickly as possible", announced the federal notice.

"Davie is the only Canadian shipyard that has the capacity to design two ro-ro passenger ferries of more than 80 metres within the requested timeframe," the document said, justifying its decision to do business with the Quebec shipyard.

At the time, the agreement came at the right time for the Quebec shipyard. The latter was still a few years away from being included in the National Shipbuilding Strategy, which guarantees the construction of icebreakers for the Coast Guard.

Since then, Davie has been thinking big. He was promised $630 million by the Legault government to modernize his Lévis shipyard in addition to buying a shipyard in Finland at a cost of $100 million. He also wants to invest up to $1 billion in Texas to build icebreakers there.

According to the federal documents we consulted, the delivery schedules had already been established: 2026 for the successor to the Madeleine (MV Jean-Lapierre) and 2027 for the successor to the Holiday Island. These targets seem utopian and no one dares to put forward new dates.

Notes prepared for Transport Canada's federal deputy minister, Arun Thangaraj, as part of an appearance before a parliamentary committee last June, did not provide any details.

"The delivery date is under discussion with Davie," they say.

In an email exchange with La Presse, Transport Canada finally indicated on Friday that the delivery years that appeared in the contract award notice were "provisional and subject to change." The precise reasons behind the changes, however, have not been specified despite our requests.

This turn of events forced Transport Canada to procure two replacement ferries built abroad (Spain and Norway). Together, the two ships cost nearly $200 million.

The companies that were promised the ferries seem to have turned the page. The Coopérative de transport maritime et aérien (CTMA) was to operate the Jean-Lapierre ferry. Its general manager, Emmanuel Aucoin, no longer seems to want it.

"Our Madeleine II [the used ship] is doing a remarkable job, we can see it, it is efficient," Mr. Aucoin told the regional station CFIM last January. We don't think we're putting in any energy and we don't want the government to put it in to replace him with the Jean-Lapierre."

This isn't the first time a ferry contract has become complicated for Davie. An order for two ships with the Société des traversiers du Québec a decade ago resulted in delays and cost overruns.

To help it rejuvenate its Lévis facilities, the Legault government offered Davie $325 million in loans. La Presse revealed on October 21 that the entire amount is "forgivable," with no obligation to repay.

 

[suffolkowner]

Maybe? But honestly I would prefer them to build their icebreakers and CCG ships at a higher clip. If there is another RCN ship to be built after Preserver then it should be more JSS.

But another JSS would be built by Seaspan?

Davie talked a huge game trying to muscle their way into the NSS, only to go entirely silent and apparently be unable to even deliver a pair of ferries to Transport Canada after gobbling up a bunch of money from the Quebec Government. At this point, Davie seems less interested in bringing its Canadian operation up to speed and getting on with its NSS contracts, and more interested in buying foreign shipyards to boost their overall profit abroad. They've already began farming out work that should be done in Canada to their new Finnish Helsinki yard for their Polar Icebreaker, to the point that we don't actually know how much work on this ship will actually be done in Canada.

Davie has 1 Polar Icebreaker and 6 Program Icebreakers, the latter is being farmed out abroad seemingly and the former haven't been started. Before we start talking about handing them CDC work, maybe they should get to work finishing their yard work and working on what they've already been given?

Commande de deux traversiers | La construction se fait attendre chez Davie

Pendant qu’il grandit en Finlande et aux États-Unis, Davie est enlisé dans un important contrat ici. Six ans après avoir obtenu une commande de Transports Canada pour deux traversiers parce qu’il était considéré comme le seul à pouvoir remettre la marchandise à temps, le chantier maritime de...

www.lapresse.ca

The shine has come off Davie's self promotion without delivery. Disappointing