North Korea (Superthread)

[AirDet]

It looks like Japan wants a piece of N. Korea too. They have dispatched ships to join in "exercises" with Carl Vinson Strike Group.

http://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/04/12/17/japan-plans-joint-show-of-force-with-us-carrier-headed-to-korean-peninsula-sources

 

[Kirkhill]

China's Global Times warns North Korea to stop nuclear and missile activities

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-global-times-warns-north-korea-to-stop-nuclear-and-missile-activities

BEIJING (REUTERS) - North Korea should halt any plan for nuclear and missile activities "for its own security", an influential Chinese newspaper said on Wednesday (April 12), warning that the United States is making clear it does not plan to "co-exist" with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang.

The Korean peninsula has not been so close to a "military clash" since North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, the Global Times said in an editorial.

"Not only is Washington brimming with confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria, but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honours his promises,"said the paper run by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily.

"The US is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting further nuclear tests. It doesn't plan to co-exist with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang," it said. "Pyongyang should avoid making mistakes at this time."

The Global Times, whose stance does not equate with Chinese government policy, said that Beijing would likely react strongly to any North Korean test.

"If the North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese society will be willing to see the (UN Security Council) adopt severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North," the paper said.....

Meanwhile, from the NY Times yesterday:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/world/asia/trump-china-trade-north-korea.html?ref=todayspaper

...Several former American officials said China was ...unlikely to respond as Mr. Trump now wants.

"He's clearly groping for leverage over China," said Evan S. Medeiros, a former top China adviser to President Barack Obama who is now head of Asia research at Eurasia Group. 

But Mr. Medeiros added: "Linking such distinct issues seldom works...

I suggest that President Trump might have found some leverage and Mr. Medeiros might want to "recalibrate".

Explicit linkage of trade and defence.  Bumps security costs for everybody else making them less competitive. 

Cheap energy, low taxes makes America more of an investment opportunity.  Makes everyone else less competitive.

And no barriers have yet been raised.  Candidate Trump reminded everyone of what could happen and why they might want to play nice.

 

[MilEME09]

There's another hidden message here too, the Chinese - DPRK Border from what I've read has a fair bit of smuggling and illegal crossing happening all the time. 150,000 Chinese troops could be China's way of cracking down on this. The fact that this news paper which I suspect also has ties to communist party officials when it develops such articles means China is running out of patience with the DPRK.

 

[Kirkhill]

From the above:

...but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honours his promises,"said the paper run by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily.

I'm not sure if I'm reading a poor translation (possible) or if the Communist Party of China is of the opinion that honouring promises is an undesirable trait in politicians and leaders.  If so, I don't think they are alone in that belief.

 

[The Bread Guy]

More grist for the mill -- RUS-state media says this:

Data on Sending 150,000 Chinese Troops to N Korea Border ‘Fabrication’ – Beijing

China’s Defense Ministry denied on Wednesday information on the alleged deployment of an additional 150,000 servicemen of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) to the border with North Korea, saying the data was fabricated.

BEIJING (Sputnik) – Various media reports alleging the deployment of troops have emerged since Monday.

"The information is a total fabrication," the Defense Ministry said, when asked if China had sent an additional contingent to the border with North Korea ...

So far, nothing to see on the English-language CHN def media here, but here's a Google Translation of something from the Chinese page, looking like a question to a PLA spokesperson:

Ministry of Defense News Bureau reporter asked
Source: Defense Department Network Editor: Liu Shangjing 2017-04-12 18:28

Q: According to foreign media reports, in response to the North Korean emergency, the Chinese military to the border between China and Canada* sent 150,000 soldiers, please confirm.

A: The above reports are purely fabricated.

* - Gotta love Google Translate, right?  When I do a translation of the shorter phrase, "DPRK" comes up instead of "Canada".
op:

 

[tomahawk6]

More on PLA deployment to the North Korean border. IF the North undertakes another nuclear test this week Trump may well launch some type of strike. There is alot of talk about a possible decapitation strike which would paralyze the decision making structure and might see new leadership emerge. This would make the entire region safer. It would be a tempting option. But you cant miss. Follow up with a limited PLA invasion and see who emerges from the leadership struggle.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-tensions-reports-of-chinese-troops-on-border-20170411-gviljw.html

 

[Lightguns]

More on PLA deployment to the North Korean border. IF the North undertakes another nuclear test this week Trump may well launch some type of strike. There is alot of talk about a possible decapitation strike which would paralyze the decision making structure and might see new leadership emerge. This would make the entire region safer. It would be a tempting option. But you cant miss. Follow up with a limited PLA invasion and see who emerges from the leadership struggle.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-tensions-reports-of-chinese-troops-on-border-20170411-gviljw.html

Don't see the Chinese in it without Trump seceding something in the South China Seas to them.  Pissing Vietnam and Philippines.

 

[Rifleman62]

I believe the current government in the Philippines are not US friendly.

 

[Kirkhill]

Don't see the Chinese in it without Trump seceding something in the South China Seas to them.  Pissing Vietnam and Philippines.

I think Trump is giving China what they want.  He has backed off on calling them currency manipulators already and has promised that he would consider their assistance in managing North Korea during trade negotiations.  China, like the US and most other folks, are first of all concerned about their economy.  Trade is the big issue.

Islands in the South China Seas are important but lesser issues.  The Carl Vinson, heading for North Korea, has been sailing the South China Seas since Feb 17 and WW III hasn't broken out yet.

The Chinese response at the time was distinctly muted.

The U.S. carrier strike group arrives in the South China Sea amid growing expectations that the Trump administration will intensify U.S. operations in the area, where China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan are mired in disputes over maritime entitlements and islets. The United States has no territorial claims in the region, but supports free navigation for civilian and military vessels alike.

As I discussed earlier this month, the new carrier strike group may serve as a vector for expanded U.S. freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea. The Obama administration carried out four FONOPs in the South China Sea after China began constructing seven artificial islands in the Spratly group.

Asked about possible oncoming FONOPs in the South China Sea by ships associated with the Carl Vinson strike group, Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry said that China “[urged] the US to refrain from challenging China’s sovereignty and security and to respect regional countries’ efforts to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.”

The most recent FONOP was carried out by the USS Decatur, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, on October 21, 2016, near China-occupied features in the Paracel Islands.

http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/us-carrier-strike-group-arrives-in-the-south-china-sea/

"Please don't do that."

Just as interestingly, all of this manoeuvring of the Carl Vinson is apparently being done "under the guns" of China and its "ship killing" ballistic missiles in the waters between China and the Phillipines, Taiwan and Japan. 

 

[GAP]

I think NK will do something to provoke the US......awaiting the response.....

 

[jollyjacktar]

Lot's of interesting photos here from the "it's my grandpa's birthday" parade.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4413582/Thousands-North-Korean-troops-parade-Pyongyang.html?offset=72&max=100&jumpTo=comment-196828616#comment-196828616

 

[Rifleman62]

I wish I could get a hold of the National NK diet that keeps everyone, (but one), including the military, even the Generals & other favored ones who supposedly have first crack at food, skinny. Beats Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig etc. NK should market the diet to get millions in foreign currency.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I wish I could get a hold of the National NK diet that keeps everyone, (but one), including the military, even the Generals & other favored ones who supposedly have first crack at food, skinny. Beats Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig etc. NK should market the diet to get millions in foreign currency.

Some of those bitches in fancy dresses sure have not missed too many meals by the looks of them, the men too.  That, or they're using the same diet techniques of Theresa Spence from Atawapiskat.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Reports are in that the missile suffered from Peenemunde Explotation and did a V2 alllll over the place.  Someone will have some spaining to do to Ricky Kim.  Don't envy that team meeting.  ;D

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/north-korea-missile-launch-attempt-fail-kim-jong-un-1.4072095

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4415314/North-Korea-attempts-launch-missile-fails.html

 

[Jarnhamar]

Tomahawks for Kim

 

[SupersonicMax]

How the US kicks the door down is going to be tricky.  You want to surprise them (Stealth) take out all of their ability to retaliate in South Korea/Japan/Guam/US (that's many well conceiled and protected ICBMs and Artillery pieces, airbases, airplanes, subs), and you want the initial attacks on those targets to be synchronized (you don't want them to be able to react to the initial attack by launch targetted weapons before they are attacked).

All that in the densest IADS the world has to offer.  I don't think TLAMS will do.

Difficult proposition indeed...

 

[tomahawk6]

How the US kicks the door down is going to be tricky.  You want to surprise them (Stealth) take out all of their ability to retaliate in South Korea/Japan/Guam/US (that's many well conceiled and protected ICBMs and Artillery pieces, airbases, airplanes, subs), and you want the initial attacks on those targets to be synchronized (you don't want them to be able to react to the initial attack by launch targetted weapons before they are attacked).

All that in the densest IADS the world has to offer.  I don't think TLAMS will do.

Difficult proposition indeed...

At the time Saddam's air defenses were also in depth but a couple of Apache gunships took out the radar sites which opened a nice lane for the strike packages. In the case of the North I doubt they are ready for a PLA cross border invasion. All we really want to neutralize I think is the leadership and the launch sites.The Chinese could handle that for us and we wouldnt have to do much but play defense.

 

[jollyjacktar]

No wonder his missiles are shit, look at the craftsmanship.  ;D

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416256/Are-Kim-Jong-s-missiles-FAKE.html

 

[tomahawk6]

The Vinson strike group is being followed by a Russian and Chinese intel ships.Pretty standard I think.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-russian-spy-vessels-us-064750794.html

 

[MilEME09]

How the US kicks the door down is going to be tricky.  You want to surprise them (Stealth) take out all of their ability to retaliate in South Korea/Japan/Guam/US (that's many well conceiled and protected ICBMs and Artillery pieces, airbases, airplanes, subs), and you want the initial attacks on those targets to be synchronized (you don't want them to be able to react to the initial attack by launch targetted weapons before they are attacked).

All that in the densest IADS the world has to offer.  I don't think TLAMS will do.

Difficult proposition indeed...

Read on Tactical Shit this morning (not the best news source I know) that the Carriers Reagan and Nimitz are also on route to Korea. If Trump is trying to show of American Military might, three carriers off Korea would give a large air force to flex. On a Similar note the US still has 18 MOAB's in it's innovatory which reportedly expire next year, dropping those on the artillery sites threatening Soul might be an idea.