Op UNIFIER - CAF and the Ukraine Crisis

[Good2Golf]

At this point, I think most of Europe has forgotten how to fight a near peer war

Probably wishing they hadn’t been so negative on nuclear power. Now their Vlad’s energy slaves…

 

[KevinB]

Ever hear it's not the size of the dog in a fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog?

The USA could crush Russia, Europe could crush Russia, but if neither has the will to fight Russia, then Russia wins.

And you're right, China is taking notes.

Bingo

Hard Times breed hard men (or a hard populace) - the West is soft now as we have become so enamored with comforts, and tired by GWOT - that it appears we no longer have the strength of will to stand up to challenges.

 

[Remius]

Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades | CNN Politics

President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.

www.cnn.com

Predictable.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades | CNN Politics

President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.

www.cnn.com

Predictable.

This is an opportunity to match Russia's game and send in some proxy forces.

'BlakanWater Inc.' has a nice ring to it

 

[Good2Golf]

Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades | CNN Politics

President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.

www.cnn.com

Predictable.

Doesn’t give Putin anything to demonize and weakens his position defending his actions against Ukraine defending against him…

 

[Good2Golf]

This is an opportunity to match Russia's game and send in some proxy forces.

'BlakanWater Inc.' has a nice ring to it

Maybe the “Waggoner Group?”

 

[MilEME09]

This is an opportunity to match Russia's game and send in some proxy forces.

'BlakanWater Inc.' has a nice ring to it

Get the CIA to have the taliban or ISIS-K stir up trouble in Dagistan or Chechnya?

 

[KevinB]

Get the CIA to have the taliban or ISIS-K stir up trouble in Dagistan or Chechnya?

You really don't even need anyone to stir up issues in Chechnya - but Vlad will also burn it down - he has no qualms with very extreme measures to deal what he considered internal dissent.

As far as US forces - we already have troops in the Ukraine with TF Raven, not enough to do anything - but would be messy if they incurred casualties due to Russian actions.

Biden Is Running Out of Time to Help Ukraine Fend Off Russia

Kyiv’s pleas for more U.S. guns to hold off Moscow have prompted a political knife fight in Washington.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

You really don't even need anyone to stir up issues in Chechnya - but Vlad will also burn it down - he has no qualms with very extreme measures to deal what he considered internal dissent.

As far as US forces - we already have troops in the Ukraine with TF Raven, not enough to do anything - but would be messy if they incurred casualties due to Russian actions.

Biden Is Running Out of Time to Help Ukraine Fend Off Russia

Kyiv’s pleas for more U.S. guns to hold off Moscow have prompted a political knife fight in Washington.

foreignpolicy.com

Those US troops are like a stone's throw away from the Canadian troops stationed there. Both sets of troops are like under 20-25k to the Polish border.

 

[KevinB]

Those US troops are like a stone's throw away from the Canadian troops stationed there. Both sets of troops are like under 20-25k to the Polish border.

The Russians aren't known for their concern about others should they decided to act -- they will hit bases within 1m of the Polish border should they feel it has troops that would oppose them.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The Russians aren't known for their concern about others should they decided to act -- they will hit bases within 1m of the Polish border should they feel it has troops that would oppose them.

Any sense if the US/CDN troops based there even have personal weapons?

 

[KevinB]

Any sense if the US/CDN troops based there even have personal weapons?

Yes - but I doubt they have any significant stores of ammunition, it is a training Force - at least the ones in public -- I would assume that we also have other forces that aren't as public doing other less than public things in the area too.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Yes - but I doubt they have any significant stores of ammunition, it is a training Force - at least the ones in public -- I would assume that we also have other forces that aren't as public doing other less than public things in the area too.

Either way, personal weapons won't really do them much good, unless they're paired up with some Ukie tank-hunting groups.....

I'm still of the thought if the Russian's attempt to ingest all of Ukraine that the Poles attempt to hold the Lvov, Tarnopol, Ivano-Frankvisk, Kolomayya, Chernivsti pocket. Holding that area covers off the entire Slovak, Hungarian and Romanian frontiers. They might even get formal or informal help from those countries as it covers off their borders from the Russians. This can provide a rump state for the Ukrainian government, setting up a possible UN peacekeeping mission that Canada for certain would participant in.

 

[Altair]

Either way, personal weapons won't really do them much good, unless they're paired up with some Ukie tank-hunting groups.....

I'm still of the thought if the Russian's attempt to ingest all of Ukraine that the Poles attempt to hold the Lvov, Tarnopol, Ivano-Frankvisk, Kolomayya, Chernivsti pocket. Holding that area covers off the entire Slovak, Hungarian and Romanian frontiers.

If they did it, it would be without the go to from Washington, pretty much them going rogue. I'm sure Washington will let it be known they are on their own.

This, the same polish military that got spanked just trying to hold their own territory will last all of 5 minutes versus the Russians in Ukraine. This isn't as big a huge deal, so long as Russia doesn't attack Poland proper, but for a nationalistic semi strongman government, getting smacked around by Russia has dire political repercussions at home.

They might even get formal or informal help from those countries as it covers off their borders from the Russians. This can provide a rump state for the Ukrainian government, setting up a possible UN peacekeeping mission that Canada for certain would participant in.

Please.

 

[daftandbarmy]

As a reminder, the last time the Poles trusted the Allied Western Powers to help them within the context of a mutual assistant treaty, this happened:

Poland, First to Fight - The Warsaw Institute Review

Poland was the first country to firmly resist the brutal expansion of the totalitarian powers that were utterly indifferent to the rights of weaker countries. Poland’s armed resistance to German aggression on September 1, 1939, was a turning point in world politics towards the Third Reich...

warsawinstitute.review

 

[MilEME09]

Which is why Poland has essentially acted how it has to become the big kid in Eastern Europe. They may be in NATO, but they trust no one to help them.

 

[CBH99]

I was going to say…

I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the Poles as getting whipped if they and the Russians have a clash.

If the reference was to WW2 — anybody would have been whipped by Germany as it was in 1939…

 

[Altair]

I was going to say…

I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the Poles as getting whipped if they and the Russians have a clash.

If the reference was to WW2 — anybody would have been whipped by Germany as it was in 1939…

The reference was to their own military exercise held in January 2021, where the goal was hold poland for 22 days until help arrived and they held on for...4 days.

If the get spanked by Russia in 4 days in Poland proper, how long do they last on their own versus Russia in Ukraine?

 

[CBH99]

The reference was to their own military exercise held in January 2021, where the goal was hold poland for 22 days until help arrived and they held on for...4 days.

If the get spanked by Russia in 4 days in Poland proper, how long do they last on their own versus Russia in Ukraine?

Ah, seen & agreed.

 

[MilEME09]

The reference was to their own military exercise held in January 2021, where the goal was hold poland for 22 days until help arrived and they held on for...4 days.

If the get spanked by Russia in 4 days in Poland proper, how long do they last on their own versus Russia in Ukraine?

Any extra 2 days till they reach the polish border. That said, if shit hit the fan, all bets are off as to who jumps in the poop storm.