Op UNIFIER - CAF and the Ukraine Crisis

[Czech_pivo]

I really don't think Poland can convert the lines in Ukraine to standard gauge before the Russians, assuming they are absorbing Ukraine wholesale and Poland gets involved, show up to Polish held Ukraine demanding they leave or else.

Poland buried a lot of the reports for the ex, so best of luck there.

Poland never makes it.

Ukraine never makes it.

NATO never tries it.

There, simulation over.

GLONASS, no?

I don't even know why we are considering this a surprise.

I bet dollars to donuts this is coming around the Olympics.

As for any Polish, Russian flare up in Ukraine assuming Ukraine falls, again, it likely won't be a surprise. Russia is going to show up in Polish occupied Ukraine with overwhelming force and a deadline for Poland to bug off. Washington and Moscow talk, Washington talks to Warsaw, Poland leaves.

Possible, but if the US/France/UK go the UN route and establish a UN peacekeeping mandate it stops RUSSIA cold and keeps a rump Ukraine that Poland marched into, alive and a constant irritation for Russia.
And don’t say it can’t happen, they ignored Russia in the ex-Yugo and marched into Sarajevo and pushed the Serbs back. NATO also bombed Belgrade, Russia’s baby brother and there was little Russia could do about it.

 

[Altair]

Possible, but if the US/France/UK go the UN route and establish a UN peacekeeping mandate it stops RUSSIA cold and keeps a rump Ukraine that Poland marched into, alive and a constant irritation for Russia.

I'm sure Russia wouldn't veto that. China too. I'm sure that the permanent security council members with veto power will allow the UN to stifle their ambitions.

And don’t say it can’t happen, they ignored Russia in the ex-Yugo and marched into Sarajevo and pushed the Serbs back. NATO also bombed Belgrade, Russia’s baby brother and there was little Russia could do about it.

The west of the 90s and the west of today are barely comparable and the Russia of the 90s and the Russia of today are barely comparable.

The west of today wants nothing to do with fighting. They speak loudly and carry a small stick. They got bullied out of Afghanistan by the bloody Taliban, they are threatening Russia with...sanctions. Invade Ukraine and we will make banking harder for you!

Dear god, its pathetic. But it's the reality.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Simple, two letters - EU.

One is in the EU and one is not.
One has to follow their rules, regulations and guidelines and one does not.
One has access to massive amounts of EU funding and bureaucrats for skills sets they lack and the other does not.
‘PHARE’ is the answer to many of these questions -

Phare - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This is some of what I personally worked on during my times in the CR.

Also, don't forget that Romania gained its independence in the mid-late 19th century while Ukraine did not gain its independence until the fall of th USSR in the early 90s.

 

[suffolkowner]

Poland buried a lot of the reports for the ex, so best of luck there.
Yes but what I've gathered so far is that Poland had prepositioned 4 divisions east of the Vistula river to guard the Suwalki Gap. If this is their actual plan than I have no words that could accurately describe how asinine that would be
Poland never makes it.
Why?
Ukraine never makes it.
Why?
NATO never tries it.

There, simulation over.

GLONASS, no?
No take a look at Russian air operations in Syria again
I don't even know why we are considering this a surprise.
The surprise is when the expected exercise isn't an exercise anymore
I bet dollars to donuts this is coming around the Olympics.
I hope not but it would be the biggest mistake Putin could make and the end of modern Russia
As for any Polish, Russian flare up in Ukraine assuming Ukraine falls, again, it likely won't be a surprise. Russia is going to show up in Polish occupied Ukraine with overwhelming force and a deadline for Poland to bug off. Good luck to Russia fighting Poland and Ukraine at the same time

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I'm far from an expert, but I think you overestimate Russia, and underestimate NATO.

I'm sure Russia wouldn't veto that. China too. I'm sure that the permanent security council members with veto power will allow the UN to stifle their ambitions.

The west of the 90s and the west of today are barely comparable and the Russia of the 90s and the Russia of today are barely comparable.

The west of today wants nothing to do with fighting. They speak loudly and carry a small stick. They got bullied out of Afghanistan by the bloody Taliban, they are threatening Russia with...sanctions. Invade Ukraine and we will make banking harder for you!

Dear god, its pathetic. But it's the reality.

I don't consider the total of conventional and Special Forces of the US to be a 'small stick'. Seriously.

I doubt China OR Russia thinks "small stick", either...

 

[suffolkowner]

I'm far from an expert, but I think you overestimate Russia, and underestimate NATO.


I don't consider the total of conventional and Special Forces of the US to be a 'small stick'. Seriously.

I doubt China OR Russia thinks "small stick", either...

Unfortunately I can understand Altairs position as the US and or NATO could put an end to this pretty easily with some strong words backed up by some force movements, but instead crickets

 

[Altair]

I'm far from an expert, but I think you overestimate Russia, and underestimate NATO.


I don't consider the total of conventional and Special Forces of the US to be a 'small stick'. Seriously.

I doubt China OR Russia thinks "small stick", either...

Its a small stick if you are not willing to use it.

Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades | CNN Politics

President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.

www.cnn.com

President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.

You know what a small stick is? Sanctions.

"That is not on the table," he said. "We have a moral obligation and a legal obligation to our NATO allies if they were to attack under Article 5, that's a sacred obligation. That obligation does not extend to ... Ukraine."
Instead, Biden said he told Putin in direct terms that the economic consequences of an incursion would be devastating.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Its a small stick if you are not willing to use it.


You know what a small stick is? Sanctions.

A 2 x 4 sitting on the ground next to me is the same size when I pick it up and swing it at your head. There's a difference between not having a 2 x 4, and not wanting to use it if you don't have to.

Use the sanctions if possible to prevent WWIII. I'm not itching to start flying around with warshots in the bombbay, personally...I don't have anything against being tough and smart...

 

[Altair]

@suffolkowner

Yes but what I've gathered so far is that Poland had prepositioned 4 divisions east of the Vistula river to guard the Suwalki Gap. If this is their actual plan than I have no words that could accurately describe how asinine that would be

I don't get the logic behind that either to be honest.

Why?

The Polish army is what, 150k? The Russians can likely bring double that to bear on any Polish attacking force, and this is assuming Poland isn't hampered by the logistics of attacking Russia.

Why?

Ukraine can barely fight the separatists in the Donbass, they cannot attack Russia, get real.

No take a look at Russian air operations in Syria again

I don't know what I'm looking for, if you want to share something please share it.

The surprise is when the expected exercise isn't an exercise anymore

You think Biden and Putin are talking because of this "exercise"?

I hope not but it would be the biggest mistake Putin could make and the end of modern Russia

You're betting on Ukraine coming out on top of a Russia Ukraine war? You should put some money down on betting sites, you would make a lot of money.

Good luck to Russia fighting Poland and Ukraine at the same time

Russia Beats the hell out of Ukraine, when Ukraine is done, they turn to focus on whatever Polish forces are in Ukrainian territory.

Not that hard of a plan.

 

[Altair]

A 2 x 4 sitting on the ground next to me is the same size when I pick it up and swing it at your head. There's a difference between not having a 2 x 4, and not wanting to use it if you don't have to.

Depends on your goals. If the goal is to prevent Ukraine from being invaded, its a small stick that wont do squat. Russia doesn't give a damn about sanctions.

If your goal is to punish Russia for conquering Ukraine, then sure, slightly bigger stick. Shame about Ukraine though.

Use the sanctions if possible to prevent WWIII. I'm not itching to start flying around with warshots in the bombbay, personally...I don't have anything against being tough and smart...

Smart.

If only France and the UK used sanctions against Germany in 1939, they could have prevented WW2

 

[Eye In The Sky]

If only France and the UK used sanctions against Germany in 1939, they could have prevented WW2

Is that a realistic comparison? If we're going to use WWII references, can I speak to the will of the nation in the US when push comes to shove? Pearl Harbor maybe?

IF Russian can just 'do what they want unchecked'....what are they waiting for? No one can stop them, they don't care about the West/NATO...so, why wait?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Its a small stick if you are not willing to use it.


You know what a small stick is? Sanctions.

How many of you are aware of this Brigade? This past summer they did joint maneuvers with US troops outside of Lwow.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian_Brigade

This will also show the lengths Poland and Lithuania is going to in regards to the Ukraine.

Lublin Triangle - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Altair]

Is that a realistic comparison? If we're going to use WWII references, can I speak to the will of the nation in the US when push comes to shove? Pearl Harbor maybe?

IF Russian can just 'do what they want unchecked'....what are they waiting for? No one can stop them, they don't care about the West/NATO...so, why wait?

Circle back to this come March, if Ukraine is a smoking ruin I think its fair to say that they didn't wait.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I'm not asking about "this March"; I am asking you your opinion - NATO and the US are of no consequence to Russia, Russian forces will wipe out all opposition with ease....so. Why is Russia waiting? Why did they wait last week, yesterday, and today?

 

[Altair]

I'm not asking about "this March"; I am asking you your opinion - NATO and the US are of no consequence to Russia, Russian forces will wipe out all opposition with ease....so. Why is Russia waiting? Why did they wait last week, yesterday, and today?

Several reasons.

Putin likes doing his ops during the olympics. Not sure if its a fetish or a strategy at this point, you need to ask him.

Secondly, Putin seems the set the ground. He uses the forces in Donbass to harass the Ukrainian forces. He builds up and demobilizes all the time to make it so that Ukraine doesn't know what is going to happen.

He might have wanted to see if Ukraine got the lesson after the Crimea and Donbass, and give them time to return to the fold.

Lastly, he needs to understand his opponents. Maybe he doesn't do this under trump. Maybe he doesn't do this under Merkel. But neither of them are around right now, so maybe that's why.

 

[Altair]

How many of you are aware of this Brigade? This past summer they did joint maneuvers with US troops outside of Lwow.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian_Brigade

This will also show the lengths Poland and Lithuania is going to in regards to the Ukraine.

Lublin Triangle - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

If this was really a thing, wouldn't it make more sense to send them to Ukraine now to make any Russian invasion harder?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Lastly, he needs to understand his opponents. Maybe he doesn't do this under trump. Maybe he doesn't do this under Merkel. But neither of them are around right now, so maybe that's why.

Maybe it’s because he’s a psychopath who’s 69yrs old and is realizing that he’s not going to live forever.
Maybe he’s realizing that Russia’s population is lower today than what is was back in 1989.
Maybe he’s realizing that Russia’s death rate is higher than it’s birth rate and the combined affects of this means that every year Russia is actually getting weaker and weaker.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If this was really a thing, wouldn't it make more sense to send them to Ukraine now to make any Russian invasion harder?

Why send it now? No reason to send it at this point.

 

[Altair]

Maybe it’s because he’s a psychopath who’s 69yrs old and is realizing that he’s not going to live forever.
Maybe he’s realizing that Russia’s population is lower today than what is was back in 1989.
Maybe he’s realizing that Russia’s death rate is higher than it’s birth rate and the combined affects of this means that every year Russia is actually getting weaker and weaker.

Something I learned about the matrix movies back in the day is the why matters a lot less than the is.

Why Russia might invade Ukraine matter a hell of a lot less than Ukraine being invaded.

Why send it now? No reason to send it at this point.

Deterrence.

 

[suffolkowner]

If I was Ukraine or Poland I'd blow all the oil and gas lines and yes Biden is screwing this up big time. What is the point of spending a trillion dollars on your defence establishment and having troops in the UK, Germany, and Italy nevermind S.Korea and Japan. Why all the tough talk about China when you can't even stand up to Russia?

The Polish army is what, 150k? The Russians can likely bring double that to bear on any Polish attacking force, and this is assuming Poland isn't hampered by the logistics of attacking Russia.

Double thats it. The point is the attacking force has the advantage but theres a huge difference between taking ground and holding it

Ukraine can barely fight the separatists in the Donbass, they cannot attack Russia, get real.

Ukraine has had no trouble with the separatists the only thing that swung the tide was the introduction of Russian forces. The numbers say different

I don't know what I'm looking for, if you want to share something please share it.

You seem pretty confident in Russian superiority to not know that they were navigating by smartphone and could barely generate a sortie a day

You think Biden and Putin are talking because of this "exercise"?

They're talking because of Putin's ongoing exercises right? Why do you think they're talking? There's a reason and impetus behind the talking what do you think the reason is? The point was how do you tell the difference between an exercise and the real thing?

You're betting on Ukraine coming out on top of a Russia Ukraine war? You should put some money down on betting sites, you would make a lot of money.

No I'm betting on war having consequences. I mean maybe the Russian army is so awesome that they are going to conquer a country of 40 million in a matter of days and then hold it for all time with not one service member lost

Russia Beats the hell out of Ukraine, when Ukraine is done, they turn to focus on whatever Polish forces are in Ukrainian territory.

Not that hard of a plan.

It's easy when you say it fast enough. Sort of like how easy every other war in history has been. I mean the US should only have needed a couple of divisions in Vietnam right?