Op UNIFIER - CAF and the Ukraine Crisis

[Czech_pivo]

Here’s a good article to have a read on Putin. It’s from October of 2014, but you get a sense of what Putin’s thinking was back then and what he was proposing to Poland back then. He knows the lay of the land in Poland, from a historical perspective, he’s smart. Because of what he suggested back in 2014, he’s aware that the Poles very well may move into Lwow if Ukraine is going under the Russian yoke.

Putin does think about partitioning Ukraine

The rights and wrongs of Sikorski’s statement that Putin suggested partitioning Ukraine to Donald Tusk.

www.politico.eu

 

[Altair]

If I was Ukraine or Poland I'd blow all the oil and gas lines and yes Biden is screwing this up big time. What is the point of spending a trillion dollars on your defence establishment and having troops in the UK, Germany, and Italy nevermind S.Korea and Japan. Why all the tough talk about China when you can't even stand up to Russia?

That's what is being laid bare.

Double thats it. The point is the attacking force has the advantage but theres a huge difference between taking ground and holding it

There is. But I don't think Poland can take or hold much ground in an offensive against Russia.

Ukraine has had no trouble with the separatists the only thing that swung the tide was the introduction of Russian forces. The numbers say different

Right, the introduction of Russian forces. So I doubt they would be able to attack those same Russian forces.

You seem pretty confident in Russian superiority to not know that they were navigating by smartphone and could barely generate a sortie a day

Its less that I am confident in Russian superiority than I am doubtful of the abilities of Ukraine or Poland.

They're talking because of Putin's ongoing exercises right? Why do you think they're talking? There's a reason and impetus behind the talking what do you think the reason is? The point was how do you tell the difference between an exercise and the real thing?

I think they are talking because this time looks a hell lot more like and invasion than an exercise. These russians are not in the field doing maneuvers right now, they are building up.

No I'm betting on war having consequences. I mean maybe the Russian army is so awesome that they are going to conquer a country of 40 million in a matter of days and then hold it for all time with not one service member lost

Wars have consequences and they go both ways. Russia may lose a lot of men in any attempt, but so long as they win I believe they will find the cost worth it.

Thats the difference between them and us right now.

It's easy when you say it fast enough. Sort of like how easy every other war in history has been. I mean the US should only have needed a couple of divisions in Vietnam right?

If vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA viewed vietnam as a historic part of their country, yes, yes a couple of more divisions could have done the job.

 

[Altair]

Here’s a good article to have a read on Putin. It’s from October of 2014, but you get a sense of what Putin’s thinking was back then and what he was proposing to Poland back then. He knows the lay of the land in Poland, from a historical perspective, he’s smart. Because of what he suggested back in 2014, he’s aware that the Poles very well may move into Lwow if Ukraine is going under the Russian yoke.

Putin does think about partitioning Ukraine

The rights and wrongs of Sikorski’s statement that Putin suggested partitioning Ukraine to Donald Tusk.

www.politico.eu

If Putin thinks Lwow is a Polish city you may have a good point.

 

[MilEME09]

Thing about Russia we got to keep in mind is that their armed forces are primarily conscripts. Georgia, Ukraine, etc.... have been primarily Spetznaz, the VDV, and other elite professional elements of the Russian Armed forces. While the Western military district has likely been rotating troops in and out of Ukraine for the past few years, the vast majority of the armed Forces of the Russian federation are Green conscripts with little experiance who would likely get routed by their more well trained, and better equipped western counter parts. Doesn't matter if they out number our tanks 10 to 1 if they lack the training and just drive them through open ground and get wiped out. Russia, while slowly reforming the armed forces to be more professional would likely have it's butt handed to it in a conventional fight once their elite units were tied down due to the lack of experience of their other troops.

 

[Altair]

Thing about Russia we got to keep in mind is that their armed forces are primarily conscripts. Georgia, Ukraine, etc.... have been primarily Spetznaz, the VDV, and other elite professional elements of the Russian Armed forces. While the Western military district has likely been rotating troops in and out of Ukraine for the past few years, the vast majority of the armed Forces of the Russian federation are Green conscripts with little experiance who would likely get routed by their more well trained, and better equipped western counter parts. Doesn't matter if they out number our tanks 10 to 1 if they lack the training and just drive them through open ground and get wiped out. Russia, while slowly reforming the armed forces to be more professional would likely have it's butt handed to it in a conventional fight once their elite units were tied down due to the lack of experience of their other troops.

Last I heard Russia had 300k conscripts and 600k contract soldiers.

If they are invading Ukraine, I doubt its the conscripts doing the heavy lifting.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I've seen a couple interesting videos a little while back of Russian soldiers dressing like trash conscripts then changing their dress and pulling out modern and seemingly high end equipment. Possible they play into the just a bunch of conscripts stereotypes.

Putin vs Biden? The US won't be able to Murder-Drone some local farmer and feign competence (e.g retribution for the Afghanistan airfield attack)

In any case this will be a fablous opportunity for Canada to send peace keepers. Canada's back or whatever that slogan was.

 

[Altair]

I've seen a couple interesting videos a little while back of Russian soldiers dressing like trash conscripts then changing their dress and pulling out modern and seemingly high end equipment. Possible they play into the just a bunch of conscripts stereotypes.

Could be that.

What I do know is Russia calls in about 150k conscripts a year for a 2 year term of service, meaning 300k conscript soldiers at any given time.
600k contract soldiers is still the bulk of their forces and thats what we should be worrying about. Now one can talk about the quality of the average russian contract soldier, but I bet its on par or better than what Ukraine has, and Russia is going to be sending a lot of them.

Putin vs Biden? The US won't be able to Murder-Drone some local farmer and feign competence (e.g retribution for the Afghanistan airfield attack)

In any case this will be a fablous opportunity for Canada to send peace keepers. Canada's back or whatever that slogan was.

Can you name the last time Peacekeepers were sent to stop one of the to 10 militaries on the planet?

I think the next time will be the first time.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Several reasons.

Putin likes doing his ops during the olympics. Not sure if its a fetish or a strategy at this point, you need to ask him.

Secondly, Putin seems the set the ground. He uses the forces in Donbass to harass the Ukrainian forces. He builds up and demobilizes all the time to make it so that Ukraine doesn't know what is going to happen.

He might have wanted to see if Ukraine got the lesson after the Crimea and Donbass, and give them time to return to the fold.

Lastly, he needs to understand his opponents. Maybe he doesn't do this under trump. Maybe he doesn't do this under Merkel. But neither of them are around right now, so maybe that's why.

It is at all possible that the things you're discounting as deterrents are actually seen by Putin and his 'trusted circle' (if there is such as thing...) as deterrents, and they do not see themselves as overwhelmingly powerful as you do?

Even a teeny, tiny possibility?

 

[Altair]

It is at all possible that the things you're discounting as deterrents are actually seen by Putin and his 'trusted circle' (if there is such as thing...) as deterrents, and they do not see themselves as overwhelmingly powerful as you do?

Even a teeny, tiny possibility?

I guess we find out the answer in the new year.

 

[suffolkowner]

That's what is being laid bare.

There is. But I don't think Poland can take or hold much ground in an offensive against Russia.

Right, the introduction of Russian forces. So I doubt they would be able to attack those same Russian forces.

Its less that I am confident in Russian superiority than I am doubtful of the abilities of Ukraine or Poland.

I think they are talking because this time looks a hell lot more like and invasion than an exercise. These russians are not in the field doing maneuvers right now, they are building up.

Wars have consequences and they go both ways. Russia may lose a lot of men in any attempt, but so long as they win I believe they will find the cost worth it.

Thats the difference between them and us right now.

If vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA viewed vietnam as a historic part of their country, yes, yes a couple of more divisions could have done the job.

That's what is being laid bare.

Yes on this we agree

There is. But I don't think Poland can take or hold much ground in an offensive against Russia.

I dont see why they couldn't do serious damage for the first few days of the push. They wouldn't be able to sustain it but neither can Russia

Right, the introduction of Russian forces. So I doubt they would be able to attack those same Russian forces.

It took a massive Russian intervention against a completely different Ukrainian force that was actually dominated by volunteers. So if Russia had trouble with a volunteer militia 8 years ago yeah I think its going to be harder this time

Its less that I am confident in Russian superiority than I am doubtful of the abilities of Ukraine or Poland.

I think the Russian military is a paper tiger.

I think they are talking because this time looks a hell lot more like and invasion than an exercise. These russians are not in the field doing maneuvers right now, they are building up.

Yes thats the exercise

Wars have consequences and they go both ways. Russia may lose a lot of men in any attempt, but so long as they win I believe they will find the cost worth it.

Thats the difference between them and us right now.

They won't though its a bankrupt country that was barely hanging on before Covid dependent on Soviet era oil and gas discoveries that they have struggled to expand on

If vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA viewed vietnam as a historic part of their country, yes, yes a couple of more divisions could have done the job.

The US had 5 divisions in Vietnam

 

[Altair]

Yes on this we agree

I'm not sure if Trump would be a better option in this case, but I know without a doubt Biden is messing up.

I dont see why they couldn't do serious damage for the first few days of the push. They wouldn't be able to sustain it but neither can Russia

Any surprise attack will do some amount of damage. Its what happens after that. I still think sheer weight of decently trained numbers can do wonders.

It took a massive Russian intervention against a completely different Ukrainian force that was actually dominated by volunteers. So if Russia had trouble with a volunteer militia 8 years ago yeah I think its going to be harder this time

I suppose we shall see what happens if they do butt heads, but I don't think the Ukrainian regular army matches up well against the Russian regular army.

Especially on the indirect fire front, the EW front, the air superiority front.

I think the Russian military is a paper tiger.

Maybe back in 2008, but Russia has been investing a ton into their forces since then and I don't think Putin would commit them unless he was sure he could win.

Yes thats the exercise

They won't though its a bankrupt country that was barely hanging on before Covid dependent on Soviet era oil and gas discoveries that they have struggled to expand on

Have you seen the price of oil recently? I know its a bit paradoxical, but just work under the assumption that if Alberta is feeling pretty good about its economy and finances, Russia is as well.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-opinion-alberta-fiscal-update-oil-prices-deficit-tombe-1.6269600

Alberta's latest budget update opened with what is surely one of the greatest understatements in provincial fiscal history:

"The Alberta government fiscal situation," it read, "has changed materially from the forecast presented in Budget 2021."

This "material change", however, was one of the most significant improvements in government finances that Alberta has ever seen in its 116 years.

The government now projects the deficit for 2021/22 to fall from $18.2 billion to $5.8 billion — which, though still large, would be the smallest deficit since oil prices tanked in late 2014. For perspective, this $12.4 billion improvement is the equivalent of over $2,800 per Albertan. Adjusted for population and inflation, this is the largest year-over-year improvement in Alberta history. And as a share of GDP, it's the largest since 1987.

It's a startling reversal of fortune.

Yeah, Russia is feeling pretty good right now, far from broke.

The US had 5 divisions in Vietnam

Again, if Vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA felt it historically belonged to them, America would not have lost.

Those same factors are playing into Russian hands.

 

[suffolkowner]

Any surprise attack will do some amount of damage. Its what happens after that. I still think sheer weight of decently trained numbers can do wonders.

the Russian military as a whole is not a professional army. Its non conscript can be probably be cut in half

I suppose we shall see what happens if they do butt heads, but I don't think the Ukrainian regular army matches up well against the Russian regular army.

I doubt they're much less professional, they'll know why they're fighting

Especially on the indirect fire front, the EW front, the air superiority front.

indirect fires dont look bad to me, the Ukrainians aren't going to be surprised by EW, the air superiority is a huge problem if the Russians can get their planes in the air

Maybe back in 2008, but Russia has been investing a ton into their forces since then and I don't think Putin would commit them unless he was sure he could win.

He will because hes an egomaniac. Do you think people tell Putin the truth or what he wants to hear? The investment isn't half what Ukraine has done with the Lviv and Kharkiv plants delivering over 5 tanks a month each. Russia meanwhile has struggled to get its vaunted T-14,T-15, Su-57 delivered

Have you seen the price of oil recently? I know its a bit paradoxical, but just work under the assumption that if Alberta is feeling pretty good about its economy and finances, Russia is as well.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-opinion-alberta-fiscal-update-oil-prices-deficit-tombe-1.6269600

The problem is that oil money isn't going into or helping the Russian economy or people. Russia remains the peculiar backwater that its been for ???

Again, if Vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA felt it historically belonged to them, America would not have lost.

Those same factors are playing into Russian hands.

The sheer effort required is huge. I dont think Russia can sustain it. The US didn't lose due to lack of personnel in Vietnam and their 5 divisions were dwarfed by the contributions from other nations. The Russians have shown no potential for sustaining operations. They are not going to surge enough troops into a confrontation with Ukraine or sustain it the 7 active divisions of the Western Military District aren't going to cut it

 

[Altair]

the Russian military as a whole is not a professional army. Its non conscript can be probably be cut in half

again, most numbers I'm seeing is 1/3 is conscript. That still leaves a lot of contract soldiers.

I doubt they're much less professional, they'll know why they're fighting

This is true.

indirect fires dont look bad to me, the Ukrainians aren't going to be surprised by EW, the air superiority is a huge problem if the Russians can get their planes in the air

I mean, I suppose we shall see what happens if this goes hot, it will be a very good evaluation tool as to the state of the Russian army and air force.

But I do remember Americans embedded with Ukrainian troops saying the EW component of the Russians were miles ahead of what the US was expecting.

He will because hes an egomaniac. Do you think people tell Putin the truth or what he wants to hear? The investment isn't half what Ukraine has done with the Lviv and Kharkiv plants delivering over 5 tanks a month each. Russia meanwhile has struggled to get its vaunted T-14,T-15, Su-57 delivered

I don't think Putin is Stalin, I don't think the Russian republic is the soviet union. I think that Putin is analytical and to be analytical you need accurate numbers.

He's not going to risk everything on a bad hand, he has to be pretty confident that he can achieve results. And if NATO and the West wasn't that scared of the Russian forces they wouldn't be trying so hard to prevent this potential conflict from happening.

The problem is that oil money isn't going into or helping the Russian economy or people. Russia remains the peculiar backwater that its been for ???

I disagree completely. This goes right into their economy. People, not so much outside of some social programs, but economy? This is a huge boost. Again, Alberta is feeling pretty good these days and their economy isn't as dependent on oil and gas as Russia is.

The sheer effort required is huge. I dont think Russia can sustain it. The US didn't lose due to lack of personnel in Vietnam and their 5 divisions were dwarfed by the contributions from other nations. The Russians have shown no potential for sustaining operations. They are not going to surge enough troops into a confrontation with Ukraine or sustain it the 7 active divisions of the Western Military District aren't going to cut it

We haven't seen what the Russians can do in terms of sustaining operations in almost 14 years.

A lot can change in 14 Years.

 

[KevinB]

Can you name the last time Peacekeepers were sent to stop one of the to 10 militaries on the planet?

I think the next time will be the first time.

Korea (not peacekeepers but...)

 

[Altair]

Korea (not peacekeepers but...)

That was the last time a UN combat mission stopped a top 10 military in the world, but as you said, no blue helmets there.

 

[daftandbarmy]

That was the last time a UN combat mission stopped a top 10 military in the world, but as you said, no blue helmets there.

The last time was probably the first time: Suez 1956 when they were deployed to protect a 3rd world middle eastern country from two European powers.

 

[Altair]

The last time was probably the first time: Suez 1956 when they were deployed to protect a 3rd world middle eastern country from two European powers.

Did they really?

Or was it Washington that stopped them, and the peacekeepers filled the void.

I don't remember learning about peacekeepers stopping Britain and France.

 

[Czech_pivo]

This is article beautifully lays out what I was talking about earlier about my times working in the Czech Republic in the mid 90s' and the talk about the 'lost generation' and how it was the young people who were the catalyst for change. It talks about a small Ukrainian town, close to the frontlines with the Donbas separatists and the people's work towards a better place to live.

Ukraine’s New York, a war-torn town where some shun Russia

In Eastern Ukraine, one small town is fighting for survival in the shadow of Europe’s bloodiest armed conflict.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[The Bread Guy]

... this will be a fablous opportunity for Canada to send peace keepers ...

Don't think that WASN'T considered at one point ...

Fun fact: if Team Blue won the 2019 election, the current leader said during the campaign they'd have started working on just that idea

 

[KevinB]

Don't think that WASN'T considered at one point ...

Terrible idea then and now.
Any Peacekeeping force in the Ukraine would need credible AA and AT weapons - as well as a rather robust ability to deal with agitators.
Furthermore a NATO country sending troops wouldn't be viewed by Russia as Neutral - which while I think it GREAT probably wouldn't really add any stability - you'd be better off sending the same troops into Defensive positions on the Ukraine side of the "DMZ"