The Arctic, after all, is no longer just vast icebergs floating around like sentinels of death, surrounded by silence more oppressive than its cold—it
is now a major geopolitical prize in the Great Power Competition between the United States, China, and Russia.
The Arctic has relevance to every facet of this struggle.
Energy? The
U.S. Geological Survey estimates that
one-eighth of the world’s untapped oil reserves and one-third of its natural gas reserves lie in the Arctic.
Trade? The Arctic’s
three trade routes—
the Northwest Passage (above Canada), the Northern Sea Route (above Russia), and the Central Arctic Route (between Iceland and the Bering Strait, through the North Pole)—will soon subsume a substantial share of shipping, by some accounts
five percent of global maritime traffic in 2030 and with no sign of slowing down.
Political-military risk? The Russian Navy’s elite Northern Fleet recently expanded its area-of-responsibility specifically to secure the Northern Sea Route, and China proclaimed itself a “near Arctic” state as it begins to establish a “Polar Silk Road” of influence and commerce in the region (“near” does a lot of work there). In fact, China and Russia are cooperating in the Arctic, as evidenced by their
joint naval patrol near the U.S. Aleutian Islands in 2023.