Pan-Islamic merged mega thread

[CougarKing]

The Saudi-led Sunni coalition forces continue advancing against Iran's proxies...

Reuters

Gulf Arabs wrest strategic Yemen island from Iran-allied group
Mon Oct 5, 2015 9:29am EDT

By Mohammed Mukhashaf

PERIM ISLAND, YEMEN (Reuters) - Perim Island may be a small lump of windswept volcanic rock at the entrance to the Red Sea but its capture by Gulf Arab forces from Houthi fighters was a welcome victory for Yemen's government and its allies.

Gulf Arab troops swooped in from air and sea last week to take back Perim, which sits on one of the world's most important sea lanes.

The successful action denied Iran, the Houthis' main ally, a symbolic foothold astride trade routes as the Saudi-led Gulf Arab states and Tehran vie for influence across the Arab world.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[a_majoor]

I wonder if this is a warmup before going against the larger Iranian proxies? The long term strategy certainly seems to be trying to bleed Iran from a distance, cutting off oil revenues while forcing them into an expensive fight in Syria. Even with Russian backing, this could be too much for Iran to absorb in the long term, especially if Iranian resources, ground troops and proxies like Hezbollah fighters are being consumed faster than they can be replaced.

 

[YZT580]

With the lifting of sanctions, Iran will have lots of money with which to sponsor Jihad.  Another diplomatic triumph from the community organizer in charge of the u.s.

 

[Tuan]

Guess who infiltrated Europe :

https://unfetteredfreedom.wordpress.com/2015/10/03/list-of-shabiha-posing-as-refugees-in-europe/

 

[CougarKing]

Definitely NOT an honour any company would like to have...

And it's not just for ISIS, but for the Taliban who have used such "technicals" in the past.

Diplomat

Japan’s Largest Company Is ISIS’ Car Maker of Choice
How did so many Toyota pickup trucks and SUVs end up in the hands of ISIS?

L1001025
By Franz-Stefan Gady
October 08, 2015

The United States has launched an investigation to determine how the terror group ISIS was able to acquire a large number of Toyota pickup trucks and SUVs ABC News reported this week.

Japanese car manufacturer Toyota, the world’s second-largest auto maker, has pledged full cooperation with U.S. authorities and is “supporting” the inquiry led by the Terror Financing division of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

“We briefed Treasury on Toyota’s supply chains in the Middle East and the procedures that Toyota has in place to protect supply chain integrity,” according to a D.C.-based spokesperson of Toyota. However, “it is impossible for Toyota to completely control indirect or illegal channels through which our vehicles could be misappropriated,” he added.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[Edward Campbell]

Definitely NOT an honour any company would like to have...

And it's not just for ISIS, but for the Taliban who have used such "technicals" in the past.

Diplomat

I actually think this is part of K Street's (the Washington Lobby firms who work on behalf of the Big Three automakers and the UAW) ongoing war against the Japanese (and Korean) car makers.

 

[George Wallace]

:camo:

Not to mention it being a vehicle of choice by Technicals in countries like Somalia and Eritrea way back in the late '80's and early '90's.

 

[McG]

[Japan’s Largest Company Is ISIS’ Car Maker of Choice] ... it's not just for ISIS, but for the Taliban who have used such "technicals" in the past.

Toyota seems to be the car-maker of choice for everybody in those countries.  It does not seem that odd that a large number would be in use with criminal elements.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Who doesn't love the Hilux?  They were fantastic trucks overseas.

 

[Good2Golf]

...because they don't need dealerships at every corner doing warranty work that shouldn't have been required in the first place? ???

HiLux, Landcruiser, Corolla (especially the yellow and white variety)...what's not to like?

Oh, you mean the Saudis and Kuwaitis supplying ISIS?

 

[larry Strong]

I actually think this is part of K Street's (the Washington Lobby firms who work on behalf of the Big Three automakers and the UAW) ongoing war against the Japanese (and Korean) car makers.

Guess they would not like me....1 Nissan and 2 Hyundai's on my drive way....


Larry

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Toyota seems to be the car-maker of choice for everybody in those countries.  It does not seem that odd that a large number would be in use with criminal elements.

Maybe the Syrian government (is there one left?) should create a Toyota Long-Box Pick-up registry  ;D

"Toyotas don't kill people. People kill people with Toyotas" Declared the president of the NTA (National Toyota Association). 8)

 

[McG]

Giant suicide attack in Ankara was IS.  I wonder how (or if) this will change the Turkish response in Syria.

Turkish PM blames Ankara bombing on Islamic State
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34505030

 

[jollyjacktar]

Seeing as Kurds were the target, I don't see them shedding too many tears in private.  I don't think they'll start really hitting ISIS even after this either.

 

[CougarKing]

The Houthis getting desperate as Saudi-led Sunni coalition forces close in?

Reuters

Yemeni forces launch Scud missile toward Saudi Arabia: Houthi TV
Thu Oct 15, 2015 1:31am EDT
SANAA (Reuters) - Yemeni army units allied to the Houthi militia on Thursday fired a ballistic missile toward a Saudi air base, the group's television channel said, escalating six months of war between the kingdom and the Iran-allied group.

"The missile unit of the Yemeni army fired a Scud missile toward Khaled bin Abdulaziz base at Khamees Mushait," Houthi-run Al Maseera TV reported on its Twitter page.

Residents in the capital, Sanaa, reported hearing a big roar rousing them from their sleep at around 6 a.m. as the Scud was launched near the city.

(...SNIPPED)

Reuters

Arab coalition slowing aid efforts in Yemen: U.S. Navy report
Wed Oct 14, 2015 9:17am EDT

LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) - Aid to Yemen is being slowed by a Saudi-led coalition which has warned commercial vessels to stay away from areas hit by fighting, a U.S. Navy report said.

The Arab coalition, fighting to end control of much of Yemen by the Iran-allied Houthi movement, denied the allegation and said it was keen for ships to take in relief.

Yemen is suffering what the United Nations says is one of its worst humanitarian crises. Aid efforts have been hampered by fighting and air and sea ports being blocked for long periods.

A report published on Tuesday by the U.S. Navy and seen by Reuters said coalition warships off the Red Sea port of Hodeida were "broadcasting a warning to commercial vessels to stay clear of operational areas.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[a_majoor]

More Iranian forces joining the fight. The balance of forces isn't looking very good for the Sunni plan to knock out Syria and hobble Iran's chances to become the regional Hegemon:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/10/15/iranians-prepare-major-combat-offensives-in-syria/

Iranians Prepare Major Combat Offensives in Syria

Looks like Washington has been caught flat-footed in Syria again. The Times of London reports:

Thousands of Iranian troops have been flown into an airbase in Latakia for deployment to the front lines in Idlib, where heavy fighting with rebels is under way. Others are being moved towards Aleppo, where they will join a ground offensive involving regime forces and Hezbollah fighters in the coming days, according to Iranian sources.

Reports of Iranian troops on the ground in Syria have been mounting in recent weeks, with Iran confirming the death of several Iranian officers killed in combat outside Aleppo last week. Though an unnamed Obama Administration official has said that figures for the number of Iranian troops deployed overstate the reality by an order of magnitude, that misses the point.

Whatever the final figure ends up being, the Obama Administration’s apparent determination to downplay the significance of Iran’s contribution to the fight could be a grave miscalculation. When you have so many forces on so many scattered battlefronts, even a few hundred well-equipped, professionally trained, fresh troops can make a significant difference if you use them well. Thousands of such troops, if the numbers indeed reach that high, could help tip the regional balance, making President Obama’s public predictions of failure seem… premature at best.

 

[a_majoor]

If true, this puts a very clear timeline on Saudi Arabia's ability to crush Iran's attempts to become the regional Hegemon, or to block Russia's attempts to support Iran, Syria and so on. The real race is between Saudi Arabia and Russia or Iran over who will run out of cash first?

http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/25/investing/oil-prices-saudi-arabia-cash-opec-middle-east/index.html?sr=twcnnbrk102515oilpricessaudiarabiacashopecmiddleeast512pStoryMoneyPhoto

Not even the mighty Middle East can survive cheap oil forever.

If oil stays around $50 a barrel, most countries in the region will run out of cash in five years or less, warned a dire report from the International Monetary Fund this week. That includes OPEC leader Saudi Arabia as well as Oman and Bahrain.

Low oil prices will wipe out an estimated $360 billion from the region this year alone, the IMF said.
Huge budget surpluses are quickly swinging to massive deficits as oil prices have crashed to around $45 currently from over $100 last year.

Many of these countries are being forced to tap into rainy day funds to weather the storm.
"Oil exporters will need to adjust their spending and revenue policies to ensure fiscal sustainability," the IMF wrote.
The depressed oil prices have come at a time when spending has gone up as many of these countries are grappling with regional violence and turbulence in financial markets.
saudi arabia cash crunch

Related: Infographic: Cheap oil is crushing these Middle Eastern countries

Saudi Arabia is getting squeezed

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, needs to sell oil at around $106 to balance its budget, according to IMF estimates. The kingdom barely has enough fiscal buffers to survive five years of $50 oil, the IMF said.

That's why Saudi Arabia is moving fast to preserve cash. The kingdom not only raised $4 billion by selling bonds earlier this year, but its central bank has yanked up to $70 billion from asset management firms like BlackRock (BLK) over the past six months.
After years of huge surpluses, Saudi Arabia's current account deficit is projected to soar to 20% of gross domestic product this year, Capital Economics estimates. Saudi Arabia's war chest of cash is still humungous at nearly $700 billion, but it's shrinking fast.
cheap oil middle east

Related: Saudi Arabia is facing a cash crunch

Spending cuts ahead

Saudi Arabia is unlikely to jack up taxes, but it is poised to cut at least some forms of spending.
It's not likely to cut social and military spending programs as leaders fear a repeat of the 2011 Arab Spring uprising.
"In an environment with regional insecurity and domestic instability, to chip away at that social contract is a bit of a political gamble," said Henry Smith, a Dubai-based associate director with consultancy Control Risks.

Yet Smith said big government spending projects are already seeing far greater scrutiny.
"Some of the projects that are less economically essential are quietly being sidelined," Smith said.

Related: Saudi Arabia's oil policy 'does not help anyone'

Iran, Iraq under pressure

Iran's break-even oil price is estimated at $72 and it could survive cheap oil for less than 10 years, the IMF estimates. It's a rosier outlook compared to its neighbors. But Iran's outlook is clouded by potential sanctions relief (which hasn't come yet) and a surge in oil production from its nuclear deal with the West.

Iraq has virtually no fiscal buffer remaining, according to the IMF. The country is grappling with internal strife and has lost large swaths of land to ISIS.

"Violence increasingly affects civilians, and has a particularly adverse effect on confidence and expectations, and consequently on economic activity," the IMF warned.

Bahrain is also under great financial pressure, with the likelihood of also running out of options in less than five years. The country already has lots of debt and has been running deficits for several years in a row.

"They are in a relatively tight spot. They are going to have to undertake a more significant tightening," said Jason Tuvey, a Middle East economist at Capital Economics.

Related: How cheap oil will hurt Iran's comeback

UAE, Kuwait and Qatar can survive decades of $50 oil

However, a handful of countries are well positioned to face the storm. Topping that list are Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. That's partially because these countries don't need sky-high oil prices to balance their budgets.
Kuwait's break-even oil price is estimated by the IMF at just $49, or just a tad higher than current levels. The magic number is believed to be $56 in Qatar, the host of the 2022 World Cup, while the UAE needs $73 oil.

But these three countries have built up mountains of oil money that protect them during the leaner times. The IMF said the UAE has enough fiscal buffers to withstand $50 oil for nearly 30 years. Qatar and Kuwait can sustain cheap oil for almost 25 years.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I wouldn't shed a tear for the Saudis becoming beggars.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Ecept that they are the regional counter-balance to Iran, and keep the Turks on the sidelines

 

[jollyjacktar]

Screw em.