John Ivison: Who could have predicted these problems for the Liberals? Absolutely everyone
John Ivison
December 7, 2015 - Last Updated: Dec 7 8:33 PM ET
Who could have predicted the Liberal plan to raise taxes on top earners would not pay for a $3.4-billion cut for the middle class?
Who could have forecast that the Liberal pledge to withdraw fighter jets from Iraq would rupture relations with the Americans?
Apart from absolutely everyone, that is.
Justin Trudeau’s first Question Period as prime minister was a miserable affair for the government, so exposed is it on two policy positions that never made any sense – beyond being blatant political bait for voters so hungry for change they were prepared to swallow any mendacity.
Bill Morneau, the finance minister, conceded in a late afternoon press conference that reducing the middle income bracket tax rate for nine million Canadians, while simultaneously raising the rate for the 319,000 taxpayers earning more than $200,000, would not be “revenue neutral,” as the election platform had claimed.
The tax cut will amount to an average cut of $330 for individuals and $540 for couples — which is welcome relief. But there must be serious doubts about the affordability of the measure — something the Liberals would have known, even as they sold it as a wash financially.
The day the proposal was released in early May, the CD Howe Institute’s research director, Alexandre Laurin, told me the tax package would never pay for itself. Experience in other jurisdictions such as the U.K. showed that tax receipts fall because people find ways to reduce their taxable income.
He released a paper to that effect last week, suggesting the new income tax rate of 33% would yield less new revenue than the Liberals had suggested.
The government admitted as much Monday, saying the new tax changes would cost a net amount of $1.2 billion a year for the next five years.
Morneau has already given a fiscal update suggesting that slower than expected growth has turned a forecast surplus this fiscal year into a deficit of $3 billion, before any Liberal campaign promises are factored in.
The new government had pledged that it would rack up deficits of $25 billion over three years, before returning to surplus in 2019-20.
This political shape-shifting is already becoming a familiar routine for this government
The finance minister would not comment on whether he thought the deficits would grow bigger than $10 billion a year, beyond saying he remains committed to a return to balance by the end of the Liberal mandate.
The Liberals estimated the net cost of their annual spending promises at around $10 billion but, as we have seen with the cost of bringing in 25,000 Syrian refugees and now the middle-class tax cut, that platform is as reliable a guide to true costs as a contractor’s home improvement estimate.
On a day when the TSX tumbled 300 points, the loonie reached its weakest level in 11 years and crude oil prices dipped below $40 a barrel, it was not the best of times to send the signal that public finances are in danger of spinning out of control.
If Morneau had an uncomfortable afternoon, so did Trudeau.
Rona Ambrose, the interim Conservative leader, proved quietly effective in badgering him on the withdrawal of CF-18 fighter jets from the Middle East.
She noted there was no mention of Canada in a televised speech delivered the previous evening by President Barack Obama, in which he said America’s “closest allies” — France, Germany and the U.K. — are ramping up the fight against ISIL.
“Why are we stepping back from the fight when our allies are stepping up?” she asked.
The prime minister replied that his government remains committed to ending air strikes but will transform Canadian engagement into a different kind of mission — “equally militarily” — to ensure we continue to be a strong member of the coalition against ISIL.
When the Liberals first decided to abandon the military mission in Iraq, it was a calculation based on the war losing public support, particularly in Quebec. The commitment was to a “military role of a non-combat nature.”
Yet there remains broad public support for the fight against ISIL, particularly after the Paris shootings, and the Liberal position seems to be morphing to reflect that reality.
A new role that is “equally militarily” as bombing does not suggest non-combat. And if it is a combat role, why pull back the jets in the first place?
This political shape-shifting is already becoming a familiar routine for this government. In an election campaign, it’s easy to be on everyone’s side, whatever side they are on.
But, beyond sunny ways, this is a government that looks to be light on core principles. It had best discover some, before it loses yet more credibility.
National Post
• Email: jivison@nationalpost.com