Politics in 2016

[Kirkhill]

I wonder if the Notley - Avi Lewis "debate" has the potential to derail some of that hard-left environmental activism?

The NDP natives are perturbed at Notley because she is still digging up "their" resources.  The Liberal natives were perturbed at Trudeau because he didn't invite them to his meeting. So the left-enviro-native alliance is under stress.

Meanwhile Avi is perturbed that Notley is showing him the appropriate level of deference due NDP Royalty (Avi son of Stephen son of David).  What does it say if the Leap Manifesto is adopted by the Third Party?  What does it say if the Leap Manifesto is rejected by the most radical of the mainstream alternatives?

I think that either way this Leap gambit has the potential for exposing how poorly supported such radical thinking is and may take the extreme activism out of the spotlight for a while.  Perhaps enough to clear the decks for pipelines?

 

[Brad Sallows]

This is usually the direction a party takes after a spanking.  "We weren't extreme enough and true enough to our most fervent base."  Later will come the phase when they realize they really do need to make concessions to move to the political centre.

 

[Kirkhill]

This is usually the direction a party takes after a spanking.  "We weren't extreme enough and true enough to our most fervent base."  Later will come the phase when they realize they really do need to make concessions to move to the political centre.

The NDP seem to be particularly bothered by a lack of focus though.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/from-socialists-to-good-old-boys-a-taxonomy-of-the-ndps-edmonton-factions

Is there a there there?  Is there a single defining base?

 

[FSTO]

The NDP seem to be particularly bothered by a lack of focus though.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/from-socialists-to-good-old-boys-a-taxonomy-of-the-ndps-edmonton-factions

Is there a there there?  Is there a single defining base?

Here in Saskatchewan, "The birthplace of the CCF" the NDP has completely lost the rural and suburban vote and the Sask Party is making inroads into the inner city and native north as well.
I have no idea how they are going to rise from the depths, maybe through the large bubble of native kids coming up could be their base in the future? I don't know and if they follow Avie Lewis and Naomi Klein then their goose is truly cooked.

 

[Altair]

Mulcair only gets 48 percent support from the party.

Prime minister trudeau the last man standing from the 2015 election.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Don't forget Lizzie May...

 

[Good2Golf]

Don't forget Lizzie May...

Mulcair only gets 48 percent support from the party.

Prime minister trudeau the last man standing from the 2015 election.

SKT, gotta say Altair wasn't wrong. 

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Yup. I defer to superior attention to detail....

 

[jollyjacktar]

To lose this badly twice in the span of 6 months has got to hurt.      Still, won't miss him.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

To lose this badly twice in the span of 6 months has got to hurt.      Still, won't miss him.

Be careful what you wish for... who know's who will replace him.

 

[PuckChaser]

Interesting dynamic now. NDP moving back left, the Liberals can't outflank them anymore. The progressive vote gets split again, with the Liberals losing a whole bunch of seats to the NDP.

 

[Altair]

Interesting dynamic now. NDP moving back left, the Liberals can't outflank them anymore. The progressive vote gets split again, with the Liberals losing a whole bunch of seats to the NDP.

Maybe.

Depend who is leader though and what they do with the leap manifesto.

Adopt it and they swing further left than the liberals and then they're only attracting what,10, 15 percent of the electorate?

 

[PuckChaser]

Maybe.

Depend who is leader though and what they do with the leap manifesto.

Adopt it and they swing further left than the liberals and then they're only attracting what,10, 15 percent of the electorate?

Which is 10% right out of the Liberals bottom line. Don't tell me you don't believe that the progressive vote didn't flock to the Liberals after the NDP ran a center-left campaign, and the Liberals were clearly in the left-wing where the NDP previously occupied? There will be centrists moving back towards the Liberals, but if they stay left, those voters may just stay home instead of voting Tory, which many centrist voters did by not supporting PM Harper.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I am not so sure Altair.

If they adopt the Leap Manifesto, I think it will be a wash. They may lose a small percentage of the more centrist vote Mulcair had attracted to the party, but at the same time, it may bring back a nearly similar percentage of more lefty vote that decided to take a chance on Trudeau jr. in the last election based on his more leftist position, but who will be disappointed after they realize that they will govern from their historical centre position.

What will be interesting to see is if Trudeau jr., seeing this loss of some of his left leaning voters, decides to cater to them with more left of centre actual actions. If he does, he may push enough of his more centre and right-of-centre voters into the Conservatives arms for them to win the next election, especially if the Conservatives chose a leader that is centrist on social issues but clearly conservative (little c) in fiscal matters.

Lots of fun to come in the next few years (especially if one factors in what will happen with  :cowboy.

op: 

 

[PuckChaser]

I think a lot of center-left voters would rather stay home than vote for the Tories, unless they have a polar shift in the type of leader they elect. If they go with a social-conservative, they won't reap the rewards of a NDP implosion. There was likely similar apathy for center-right voters not wanting another 4 years of PM Harper, so they stayed home, allowing the surge of special-interest left-wing votes to cover the gap.

 

[Altair]

Which is 10% right out of the Liberals bottom line. Don't tell me you don't believe that the progressive vote didn't flock to the Liberals after the NDP ran a center-left campaign, and the Liberals were clearly in the left-wing where the NDP previously occupied? There will be centrists moving back towards the Liberals, but if they stay left, those voters may just stay home instead of voting Tory, which many centrist voters did by not supporting PM Harper.

I think if they swing that far left so they will end up with 15 percent national support, max, a drop from the 19 they got in 2015. While many might stay home, I think that in 3 1/2 years the memory of PM stephen harper will still be fresh enough in the minds of progressive voters.

That said, so much is in flux right now.

Liberals and their plans only just beginning.

Conservatives and NDP with a leadership races.

Economic recovery weak and price of oil in the dumps.

The electoral reform is a huge one.

Who knows what things are going to look like a next week, never mind 3 years from now?

 

[PuckChaser]

Progressive voters will never vote Tory, so the Conservatives could care less which left wing party they vote for. With a new Tory leader, and the Liberals not wanting to run attack ads (we'll see), the strategic voting campaign will be completely silent, making a lot more vote splits similar to 2006. There is a lot that is going to change, but NDP is trending to outflank the Liberals on the left, which is bad news for Gerald Butts and Telford. They counted on those votes to beat the Tories, and unless the NDP about-face and gets another Layton/Muclair, those votes are gone.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

No, actually, electoral reform is so far out of sight on the radars of every day Canadian that it doesn't even register.

Canadians just don't have any problem with the system in place, regardless of how many time media pundits who are tired of analyzing the same old gaming of the system in the same old way (and therefore sounding like a recording of themselves all the time) would love to force the government's hand in changing it so they get a new field to play in.

Electoral reform is a total non-starter for Canadians, and I think the only thing that would get them going on the subject would be for the government to start looking at it: The masses would get the message to the government in no uncertain term to leave well enough alone - we know how it works and we don't want to have to figure out something new.

At least that is my considered opinion based on my discussion with people around here.

Only people who want to change the electoral system are the media and third parties with no chance at ever being the government, and may be Trudeau jr., but only because he was stupid enough to mention that he would change the system and thinks people voted for that instead of just against Harper.

Besides, as I have mentioned in another thread, I am not convinced that you can change the voting system whereby Canadians vote directly for their member of parliament without amending the Constitution, and I can see at the very least that there would be a constitutional challenge to any attempt made otherwise.

 

[Remius]

Progressive voters will never vote Tory, so the Conservatives could care less which left wing party they vote for. With a new Tory leader, and the Liberals not wanting to run attack ads (we'll see), the strategic voting campaign will be completely silent, making a lot more vote splits similar to 2006. There is a lot that is going to change, but NDP is trending to outflank the Liberals on the left, which is bad news for Gerald Butts and Telford. They counted on those votes to beat the Tories, and unless the NDP about-face and gets another Layton/Muclair, those votes are gone.

At this point I think I disagree with that assessment.  Things might change but the reason the NDP was polling high was that they were moving to the centre.  Meaning they were a viable option for liberals who might not like the direction or the leader of the party.

Only when that leap manifesto crap came out among other weird things did Mulcair start to nosedive.  He tried to reassure the centrists that they weren't up to their old socialist games and simultaneously alienated the hard core left when he would endorse the manifesto.

No, I predict that the NDP will finish with even less seats than what they have now.

Divisive leadership campaigns from both parties will keep the liberals in next election unless they get their acts together.  I think the CPC one will be divisive at first but will be able to get itself together.  The NDP not so much.  The Leap people will make sure of that.

 

[Altair]

No, actually, electoral reform is so far out of sight on the radars of every day Canadian that it doesn't even register.

Canadians just don't have any problem with the system in place, regardless of how many time media pundits who are tired of analyzing the same old gaming of the system in the same old way (and therefore sounding like a recording of themselves all the time) would love to force the government's hand in changing it so they get a new field to play in.

Electoral reform is a total non-starter for Canadians, and I think the only thing that would get them going on the subject would be for the government to start looking at it: The masses would get the message to the government in no uncertain term to leave well enough alone - we know how it works and we don't want to have to figure out something new.

At least that is my considered opinion based on my discussion with people around here.

Only people who want to change the electoral system are the media and third parties with no chance at ever being the government, and may be Trudeau jr., but only because he was stupid enough to mention that he would change the system and thinks people voted for that instead of just against Harper.

Besides, as I have mentioned in another thread, I am not convinced that you can change the voting system whereby Canadians vote directly for their member of parliament without amending the Constitution, and I can see at the very least that there would be a constitutional challenge to any attempt made otherwise.

ranked ballots doesn't require touching the constitution, and it favors the liberals heavily as they are usually CPC and NDP voters second choice as it is.