Seniors Benefits Discussion- split from Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[ytz]

1972 was the last year Canada had a replacement birth rate.

Clearly there was too much microplastics in the environment in the 60s.....

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Have a nice evening

 

[Brad Sallows]

Housing prices are higher because of lack of supply.

Or aggravated demand. Usually both. Also increasing quality and size of the builds. Mostly it all starts with property value.

The problem for people who are scraping by earning modest service industry incomes in downtown X isn't the low wages for many service jobs, it's that so many people want to live in downtown X. It's a mirror of the Resource Town. In the Resource Town, businesses have to offer high wages to attract people willing to work service jobs in those (usually remote) places. In urban centres, there's a multitude of people willing to take what's offered (and then bitch about it, endlessly).

I am of the opinion that OAS should be means and income tested, it is welfare.

It already is tested. The fault is that the thresholds are too high.

 

[ytz]

Kids with high income parents can’t get student loans even if they want to or their parents say they won’t pay.

I remember friends in high school who ended up exactly in that situation. Couldn't get OSAP because of parents income. But parents refused to pay because of their poor relationship. So they had to move out and live on their own for 2 years before they could independently qualify for OSAP. And that was the late 90s. I doubt it's easier now.

 

[Brad Sallows]

1972 was the last year Canada had a replacement birth rate.

I wrote about the ages at which women started bearing children, not about replacement rate.

Plenty of women worked; they just did it before and after a (typically) 15 to 20 year window from the first child until the age at which the last was old enough to be "home alone". Those interested in part-time work could do so as soon as the last kid was into the school system (a shorter window of time out of the work force).

 

[ytz]

Or aggravated demand. Usually both. Also increasing quality and size of the builds.

Canada has the lowest number of dwellings per capita in ever G7. And one of the lowest in the OECD. So yes, shortage is a thing. We don't build enough.

And what fucking increase in quality and size are you talking about? Go drive to your nearest condo development and look at what they call a two bedroom. I promise you'll get an education. We even have things called "Micro-condos" which are basically the size of 2-3 parking spots, that didn't exist a decade ago. Read this from the Ontario property tax assessment agency. Two trends to note. More condos. Smaller condos but bigger detached. Think about why that is.

While single-detached houses were once the dominant housing type in Ontario, comprising about 95 per cent of new homes built in the 1950s, mid- and high-rise condominium development activity began to rise starting in the 1960s and intensifying in the 1990s. By 2020, condo development had surpassed single-detached houses, with approximately 41 per cent of new residential builds being condos and around 38 per cent being single-detached.

The shift toward larger single-detached houses and smaller condos has become increasingly common. Single-detached houses have grown from a median size of 1,317 sq ft in the 1970s to 2,383 sq ft in the 2020s, providing for more spacious living. The most significant growth occurred between the 1970s and 1980s, with a 44 per cent increase, and continued steadily through the 2000s and 2010s. This trend highlights the ongoing desire for larger single-family homes over the decades.

On the other hand, the median condo size has decreased by 32 per cent, shrinking from 965 sq ft in the 1970s to 658 sq ft today. This consistent reduction of overall size reflects the rising costs of construction, land acquisition costs due to scarcity, and the appeal of condos as investment properties. As a result, modern condominiums are now significantly smaller than they were 50 years ago.

Source:

From spacious homes to compact condos: MPAC data reveals shifting housing trends across Ontario | MPAC

According to new data released by MPAC, the types of homes and sizes have evolved across the province, highlighting regional variability in housing patterns.

www.mpac.ca

If you're under 40, you're basically not buying a house unless you're loaded. And if you're loaded, you can usually go bigger. Everybody else is getting a dog crate condo.

By the way, "loaded" here means family wealth. In 2024, the average parental gift to a new home buyer war $115k in Canada. It was $230k in BC. $189k in Ontario. That was 2024. Basically, for half the country, if your parents can't spot you a quarter million, no homeownerhip. Or you go live in the dog crate.

Source:

Family fund: $115K is the average gift for 1st-time homebuyers, CIBC says - National | Globalnews.ca

Some Canadian family members now give their kids $115K on average to buy a home, a report found. It said relying on a family gift is “becoming the norm.”

globalnews.ca

It already is tested.

Income. Not wealth. I personally think testing one's primary residence is too much. But it's definitely a question of at what wealth level we say your low income is kinda artificial.

The fault is that the thresholds are too high.

What do you think they should be?

I have argued for 2x the highest national LICO for an individual. That's about $61k today. But I'm only suggesting that cause I think any lower is a hard sell.

 

[Brad Sallows]

But like survey after survey has young people telling us exactly why they aren't getting married and having babies.

People who want to have children figure out ways to get it done. People who want to live in particular places or have particular jobs figure out ways to get it done. People decide whether the former or latter takes precedence.

Answers people give to surveys are sometimes just the answers they want to believe about themselves. People like to blame exogenous factors.

 

[ytz]

People who want to have children figure out ways to get it done.

We can apply the same reasoning to senior's income support. I suspect you'd have a problem with that.

Also, half a century of below replacement says they aren't figuring it out.

 

[Brad Sallows]

And what fucking increase in quality and size are you talking about?

Houses, 1926 to 2026.

If you're under 40, you're basically not buying a house unless you're loaded.

Depends on where you're shopping. If you insist on living "big city", that's self-inflicted.

Income. Not wealth. I personally think testing one's primary residence is too much. But it's definitely a question of at what wealth level we say your low income is kinda artificial.

Wealth is just accumulated income, whether it's stuffed in mattresses or invested. If I decide to bag my lunch and take a thermos of coffee from home for my entire working life, the money I don't spend isn't an excuse to squeeze me. Just pretend I bought cafeteria lunches and Starbucks all my life and that the money doesn't exist.

 

[Brad Sallows]

We can apply the same reasoning to senior's income support. I suspect you'd have a problem with that.

I have no problem with that. I've favoured OAS cuts since long before they were discovered on these boards.

Also, half a century of below replacement says they aren't figuring it out.

It suggests people have different priorities. 1972 is well in advance of the start of the run-up in housing prices, which means people were "not figuring it out" before housing prices became the excuse.

 

[Altair]

It suggests people have different priorities. 1972 is well in advance of the start of the run-up in housing prices, which means people were "not figuring it out" before housing prices became the excuse.

While dropping below replacement, the birth rate fluctuated between 1.5 and 1.7 children per woman. Manageable with moderate rates of immigration.

It's been dropping steadily since 2010, last time it was at 1.7. by 2015 it was at 1.5. by 2023 its at 1.25

And it's still dropping.

 

[ytz]

It suggests people have different priorities. 1972 is well in advance of the start of the run-up in housing prices, which means people were "not figuring it out" before housing prices became the excuse.

I agree that housing prices don't have everything to do with it. The biggest drop came after the advent of birth control. However, more recently TFR actually does track housing affordability. It's been on a decline since the GFC and fallen off a cliff after COVID.

 

[QV]

FWIW women 100 years ago were having their kids in their late teens and early 20s.
Different times.

And largely homemakers.

 

[Haggis]

Should I be forced to sell my motorcycle?

Tell me about the bike.

 

[Eaglelord17]

And largely homemakers.

Could afford to raise a family on one income as well. Most of the country that would be impossible these days without a extremely high income job.

 

[YZT580]

I have no problem with that. I've favoured OAS cuts since long before they were discovered on these boards.

It suggests people have different priorities. 1972 is well in advance of the start of the run-up in housing prices, which means people were "not figuring it out" before housing prices became the excuse.

wasn't that about the time we started belittling women who were electing to stay home and start families. Instead of considering motherhood a career we made it seem like the end of the line.

 

[QV]

Could afford to raise a family on one income as well. Most of the country that would be impossible these days without a extremely high income job.

And higher farming and ranching population where free child labor was often necessary.

But - we raised a family on single CAF income for many years with home ownership until kids were able to be left alone... That was until about 2016.

 

[Eaglelord17]

And higher farming and ranching population where free child labor was often necessary.

But - we raised a family on single CAF income for many years with home ownership until kids were able to be left alone... That was until about 2016.

I am on a single income household right now. It is a necessity for us due to a severely mentally and physically disabled child. If it wasn’t for the above average income I make in a much below average cost of living area it wouldn’t be possible. My case isn’t the norm for the vast majority of Canadians, nor do I try and argue it is.

Her not being able to work more than a couple shifts a month costs us over 70k in household income a year.