In fairness to Britney (I never thought I'd say those words), I believe there is some truth to the fact that killing an Iraqi individual of any gender obviously creates resentment.
That being said, she/he/we are not rationalizing this all the way through.
1) Who is getting killed?
2) By whom?
3) How is that death impacting the affiliated population?
In order of casualties in the last six months.....(roughly estimated)
Group One: Shia Iraqis killed and maimed by Al-Qaeda in Iraq (foreign fighters) often with logistical support of Local Sunnis
Impact: Radicalization of the Shia that they MUST use their power of majority to protect themselves and their customs because they know should the Sunnis rise to power once again, they will be slaughtered. There are many reports indicating that both police officers and new army officials (in particular in the South) are far more loyal to the Shia Clerics and the Mehdi Army, than they are to the central government. In essence, the Sunni's are being their own worst enemies in terms of destroying their own negotiating position.
Group Two: Sunni Insurgents killed and maimed by US/Iraqi Armed Forces
Impact: I would argue that there is little radicalization taking place here. Instead I would argue that those who decided to fight and those who support them made their decision a long time ago. It is reported that Saddam was teaching Guerilla tactics to Republican Guard forces prior to the invasion. In essence, you could kill them or not kill them, but the nationalist Sunnis want to take back the reigns of power. Importantly, those Sunnis who are acting in this way are no better than the SS and the Nazi population that supported them and as such finding them each their very own burial plot is fine with me. And as a side note, there were some interviews done well over a month ago in secular Sunni neighbourhoods in Baghdad (as opposed to Tikrit which is Saddam's hometown) and they quite bluntly said they like the American soldiers, would like them to stay, but very much dislike and distrust the New Iraqi Army that is predominantly Shia.
Group Three: American Soldiers killed by Sunni Insurgents
Impact: Growing complaints within the US over why their boys are dying. They were told it would be a long process, but the fact that the tribal-nature of Iraq appears to eliminated any ability to create a rational solution. I should point one irony in all of this that it was the pro-war group who wanted to believe the best about the Iraqis that they would pull themselves up by the bootstraps if given the opportunity, and the anti-war group who believed the worst about the Iraqis and predicted a civil war. Strangely enough when individuals like Britney try to say "I told you so", they often omit that fact....apparently prio-war people have more faith in brown people than anti-war people?
Group Four: Civilians of all sorts by the US Military
Impact: Since the initial invasion where "shock & awe" (dumb tactic by the way as it made wonderful footage for Al-Jazeera and Al-Qaeda Recruiting Tapes) it appears that civilian casualties have been minimal with the exception of some poorly dropped bombs. Tragic, absolutely. The only disclaimer is that in many cases the bombs landed in Sunni neighbourhoods and often "civilians" were in fact logistical supporters (otherwise they likely would not have been in the same building).
Group Five: Pro-Democracy Sunnis by Nationalists and Al-Qaeda
Impact: Fear. This tactic has been incredibly effective in silencing the secular Sunnis who we do want to negotiate with. My own belief is that the United States needs to redirect assets to protect this specific group and get them involved.
Where I'm going with all of this: "Iraqi deaths are not directly equivalent to more resistance to the United States. As with everything in life, it is a matter of context."
More important is the discussion of "Whereto from here?"
Quite frankly, I think the only solution is a loose federation of affiliated states as neither the Shia nor Kurd trusts the Sunnis to be part of a ruling government with jurisdiction over their territory....and based on their behaviour under the previous regime in particular, I find it hard to blame them. The difficult part will be how to arm each of these federated states. My own opinion is that in the constitution there needs to be a clear statement of only ONE central army for as soon as you get regional armies, or even militias, you are very quickly going to see outside interests leap in to cause great difficulty. The Iranians have already started this by arming the Mehdi Army. The Americans have been arming the Kurds for years (with good reason) which leaves the Sunnis who would likely be befriended by whomever they offer oil rights to (Russian, China, France....maybe the USA).
Bottom Line: Democracy in nations with segregated homogenous populations is rarely easy and often fails but we need to stop trivializing the process by getting caught up either anti-war or pro-war mantras as they are guaranteed to get us nowhere.
JMHO,
Matthew.
