The 'myth' of Iraq's foreign fighters

[Acorn]

All Saudis are Arab. Guest workers aren't entitled to Saudi citizenship.

 

[a_majoor]

More important is the discussion of "Whereto from here?"

Quite frankly, I think the only solution is a loose federation of affiliated states as neither the Shia nor Kurd trusts the Sunnis to be part of a ruling government with jurisdiction over their territory....and based on their behaviour under the previous regime in particular, I find it hard to blame them.   The difficult part will be how to arm each of these federated states.   My own opinion is that in the constitution there needs to be a clear statement of only ONE central army for as soon as you get regional armies, or even militias, you are very quickly going to see outside interests leap in to cause great difficulty.   The Iranians have already started this by arming the Mehdi Army.   The Americans have been arming the Kurds for years (with good reason) which leaves the Sunnis who would likely be befriended by whomever they offer oil rights to (Russian, China, France....maybe the USA).  

This is indeed the crux of the problem. Iraq is an artificial state carved out of the Ottoman Empire post WWI, hence the ethnic divisions. As a nation, a federal state with a Kurdish, Shia and Sunni "province" may well be the only way to go, even if it is too broad a brush (where do the Assyrians go, for example?). The "One Army" concept is very important, though. Currently there is a fledgling national army, but there are also local militias, Kurdish Pesh Mergas and who knows what else out there. So long as armed men have loyalties to their local clans or warlords, then there is the nucleus for active opposition to the central government (or even the local and provincial governments). The best way to overcome this would be to have the Iraqi army trained by the American Army or Marines to ingrain an institutional ethos (i.e. the soldiers are part of the Iraqi army rather than the Shia division). Over time, as solders move into civilian life this ethos will filter into other parts of Iraq. Perhaps putting Iraqi civil servants through Marine boot camp is also required, in order to instill a national ethos in government organs as well.

Bottom Line:   Democracy in nations with segregated homogenous populations is rarely easy and often fails but we need to stop trivializing the process by getting caught up either anti-war or pro-war mantras as they are guaranteed to get us nowhere.  

Robert Kaplan has made similar observations about failed, failing and weak states, although his take is that it is often geography which defines the state. Areas where transportation is difficult prevent states from projecting power, so the mountains, jungles and other wastelands of the earth are often ungovernable anarchies even if they are part of some nation on the map.

 

[TCBF]

"Iraq is an artificial state..."

- All states are artificial, some more-so than others.

Tom