The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[MrWhyt]

So Ukraine gets screwed on delivery? This sounds a bit like TKMS saying they can supply us when they already have orders in the pipeline.

Ukraine hasn't actually ordered anything. A letter of intent is not an order, no money has changed hands, yet.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Trudeau in 2015 vowed to scrap the F-35. There wasn’t an order with Harper just intent. Trudeau canceled nothing. They played this numbers game to delay buying anything. The numbers changed from 65 to 88. Talk of getting Super Hornets as an interim to bump the numbers. I think Boeing was lobbying pretty hard then. Airforce started a competition a couple years after the election. Picked up 2nd hand Hornets from Australia. Another waste of money. At one point in the competition it seemed as if there was a leaning towards Rafale, but it was out when the French were unwilling to code share. I can’t remember why Typhoon was eliminated. It may have been cost, dunno. That left SAAb & LM. After much knuckle dragging an order was finally placed. This was secured with a down payment. As much as I dislike Trudeau, his government started the ball rolling, but they should have signed a contract for 65 min. Again kicking the can down the road on the military like every government since Pierre. Oh yuk, that name puts a bad taste in my mouth.

The excuse I heard was that the Europeans believed the order was slanted towards the F-35, which I doesn't surprise me.

 

[Rainbow1910]

The excuse I heard was that the Europeans believed the order was slanted towards the F-35, which I doesn't surprise me.

Typhoon withdrawn from Canadian fighter competition - Skies Mag

The departure of the Typhoon leaves three aircraft in the running to provide Canada with 88 new fighter jets.

skiesmag.com

Airbus and the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence informed the Canadian government on Aug. 30 following a “detailed review of the request for proposal (RFP)” issued on July 23, Airbus said in a statement.

The company cited two factors that prompted the decision to withdraw following reviews of both the draft RFPs and the final document.

“First, a detailed review has led the parties to conclude that NORAD security requirements continue to place too significant of a cost on platforms whose manufacture and repair chains sit outside the United States-Canada 2-EYES community.”

The second concern was the fact that “the significant recent revision of industrial technological benefits (ITB) obligations does not sufficiently value the binding commitments the Typhoon Canada package was willing to make, and which were one of its major points of focus.”

Both the U.K. MoD and Airbus Defence and Space acknowledged the complexity of the project and thanked the future Fighter Capability Project Office for its “commitment to transparency” and “the thoroughly professional nature of the competition.”

 

[ytz]

Saab must really think we're idiots to suggest it could start deliveries in three years.

Are they wrong?

 

[ytz]

Former CRCAF not helping here.

Opinion: The idea of a mixed fleet of Canadian fighter jets should not take flight

Mixing the U.S.-built F-35 jets with a Swedish-made Gripen aircraft right now would be a mistake in operational, logistical and financial terms

www.theglobeandmail.com

I get his intent. I don't think it helps.

 

[dapaterson]

Former CRCAF not helping here.

Opinion: The idea of a mixed fleet of Canadian fighter jets should not take flight

Mixing the U.S.-built F-35 jets with a Swedish-made Gripen aircraft right now would be a mistake in operational, logistical and financial terms

www.theglobeandmail.com

I get his intent. I don't think it helps.

Bald Fonzie is like much of the fighter community - competitive with NWOs for self appreciation without self reflection.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Disagree. I worked in both industries.

It's great to hear from someone who worked both in the automobile industry and areospace industry. I'm just googling shit trying to make heads or tails of the responses.

Some catchy words in there

You like that eh?

Tolerances are across the board, some tighter then others. All achievable by trained professionals. Which we have a lot of those in Canada believe it or not.

Saying automotive tolerances are on the same level as modern fighter aircraft tolerances doesn't seem accurate to me?
Isn't the entire nature of the manufacturing, materials, the QA processes, and the certification requirements worlds apart between the auto and aerospace industry?

For example I'm reading in the auto sector, a millimeter off is often acceptable. In aerospace don't they measure in microns?
On a modern fighter, wouldn't a tiny deviation in the airframe, skin contour, or radar absorbent coating change aerodynamic performance, stealth signature, structural integrity, or weapons alignment? Not that stealth applies to Gripers but still.

India took over a decade to prepare to build Su-30s under license. Japan took years to establish local F-35 production, and they already have a top-tier aerospace sector. Brazil took around a decade to build facilities for the Gripen E/F even with Saab’s direct support.

If countries with existing fighter aircraft manufacturing need 8 to 12 years, do you really believe Canada could do it in 3? Even if we put our elbows up?

Skilled trades across all industries are in short supply. But if you offer good pay and long term work they will come out of the wood work.

Sure good pay can attract workers. It can’t create an aerospace industry out of thin air. I'm reading fighter jet production is going to need decades built supply chains, certified facilities, specialized tooling, and security clearances (just ask the CAF about these). You can’t solve those with higher wages or by pulling workers out of the woodwork.

Disagree, we already have supply chains, just need to expand them and optimize how they function. the last part is the biggest issue for Canada.

Are Canada's supply chains anywhere near what’s required for full fighter production. Didn't mechanics in the CAF have to order parts of ebay?

Expanding and optimizing also doesn't seem like a 2 to 3 year task. I'm reading it will mean building entirely new certified lines for composites, titanium, avionics, weapons integration, ITAR secure facilities, flight-test infrastructure, and more. That’s a decade+ scale industrial buildout. No?

They could and then would loose even more customers.

Or they could be big bullies and kindly tell smaller countries FAFO. Prime Minister Carney apologized pretty damn fast.

Are countries going to go to bat for beloved Canada if Trump goes on the warpath? I wouldn't count on it.

Things will be easier if we partner up with a already set up partner.

See my point about Brazil, India, and Japan.


You can't throw a Nusmista without it landing on unceded traditional land. I don't imagine First Nations will sit idly by while a multi-billion dollar facility(ies) gets built on their land. How many hundreds of millions of dollars will consultations take? How many years will that put us back.

Manufacturing jets (and 84mm rockets and CV90s) in Canada would be awesome.

Pushing a 3-5 year time frame just seems like more lies. We should respect ourselves more.

 

[Prairie canuck]

Both of whom just use their standard fighter jet, which can be readied for combat service in under 72 hours, not a bespoke jet bought exclusively for the teams. But if you are going to use something not already in the inventory, it should at least be something actually cheap, which a $150+ million fighter jet is not.

$150 million is the high end estimate of a Gripen. There are quotes as low as $85 million but the average for the E & F is presently approximately $110 to 120 million. Also consider that labour costs are between 35 to 40% which would largely stay in-country along with the income tax collected. Let's say roughly $40 million labour costs would stay in Canada. Now if local steel and aluminum (titanium?) is made a priority that's more costs recouped and redistributed in country. Now add some local software and hardware developers etc and it begins to add up to some significant industrial benefits.
Also flying your locally manufactured fighter around the world at Demos is also a means to showcase your product.

I am still a proponent of a full F35 purchase but dismissing the Gripen just because it's not an F35 requires a fair review.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Partly politics like you mention. But also partly because we insisted that all deliveries be TR3 and Block IV ready. And also because of the massive infrastructure renewal we knew was required.

Yes but we knew about the infrastructure renewal 10yrs ago.
No political party in this country in the last 35yrs has given a shit about the CAF.
Some lip service and pat on the head occasionally, that’s it.
Now we have a party that is saying mostly the right things, obtaining funding, moving along quickly on some of the right project and to right more wrongs that can be counted.
It’s too early to tell if they will continue down this path or succeed. In 18-30months there could easily be an election and the CPC could very well end it all. Back to square one on a million different things.

 

[Kirkhill]

It's great to hear from someone who worked both in the automobile industry and areospace industry. I'm just googling shit trying to make heads or tails of the responses.


You like that eh?

Saying automotive tolerances are on the same level as modern fighter aircraft tolerances doesn't seem accurate to me?
Isn't the entire nature of the manufacturing, materials, the QA processes, and the certification requirements worlds apart between the auto and aerospace industry?

For example I'm reading in the auto sector, a millimeter off is often acceptable. In aerospace don't they measure in microns?
On a modern fighter, wouldn't a tiny deviation in the airframe, skin contour, or radar absorbent coating change aerodynamic performance, stealth signature, structural integrity, or weapons alignment? Not that stealth applies to Gripers but still.

India took over a decade to prepare to build Su-30s under license. Japan took years to establish local F-35 production, and they already have a top-tier aerospace sector. Brazil took around a decade to build facilities for the Gripen E/F even with Saab’s direct support.

If countries with existing fighter aircraft manufacturing need 8 to 12 years, do you really believe Canada could do it in 3? Even if we put our elbows up?


Sure good pay can attract workers. It can’t create an aerospace industry out of thin air. I'm reading fighter jet production is going to need decades built supply chains, certified facilities, specialized tooling, and security clearances (just ask the CAF about these). You can’t solve those with higher wages or by pulling workers out of the woodwork.



Are Canada's supply chains anywhere near what’s required for full fighter production. Didn't mechanics in the CAF have to order parts of ebay?

Expanding and optimizing also doesn't seem like a 2 to 3 year task. I'm reading it will mean building entirely new certified lines for composites, titanium, avionics, weapons integration, ITAR secure facilities, flight-test infrastructure, and more. That’s a decade+ scale industrial buildout. No?


Or they could be big bullies and kindly tell smaller countries FAFO. Prime Minister Carney apologized pretty damn fast.

Are countries going to go to bat for beloved Canada if Trump goes on the warpath? I wouldn't count on it.

See my point about Brazil, India, and Japan.


You can't throw a Nusmista without it landing on unceded traditional land. I don't imagine First Nations will sit idly by while a multi-billion dollar facility(ies) gets built on their land. How many hundreds of millions of dollars will consultations take? How many years will that put us back.

Manufacturing jets (and 84mm rockets and CV90s) in Canada would be awesome.

Pushing a 3-5 year time frame just seems like more lies. We should respect ourselves more.

I can find you stationary gear that requires micron tolerances because while it doesn't leave the foundations on which it is bolted it rotates a thousands if rpms.

And that kit is managed by typical Canadian service techs.

Canadians have skills.

 

[KevinB]

Canadians have skills.

That isn’t in doubt.

What can be legitimately questioned is if there is the requisite knowledge and skill for specific tasks.

I can also tell you from experience that gifted machinists and programmers don’t always transfer industries well.