The Shadow Fleet

[HavokFour]

And a bunch more today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2075149342202098152

Aftermath from one of the ships over the last couple days of strikes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2075528695280717935

 

[HavokFour]

Another 18 over night, bringing the total this week to 48 ships.

Ukraine Says It Hit 18 Russian Vessels, Oil Refineries in Overnight Drone Strike

Reported overnight strike targets include 13 oil tankers linked to Moscow’s “shadow fleet,” along with oil refineries, fuel terminals and power

www.kyivpost.com

 

[HavokFour]

Shipping through the Don-Azov channel was suspended on Friday, but the strikes continue.

Ukraine Says It Hit 18 Russian Vessels, Oil Refineries in Overnight Drone Strike

Reported overnight strike targets include 13 oil tankers linked to Moscow’s “shadow fleet,” along with oil refineries, fuel terminals and power

www.kyivpost.com

 

[brihard]

Even assuming the numbers/impacts are greatly exaggerated, which I think is reasonable to do until there’s more thorough analysis- this has to be hitting really hard.

 

[HavokFour]

Even assuming the numbers/impacts are greatly exaggerated, which I think is reasonable to do until there’s more thorough analysis- this has to be hitting really hard.

Many of the ships getting hit in the Sea of Azov are designed to operate in rivers, channels, and coastal waters. They were being used as a way to transfer cargo to bigger ships out in the open water because the terminals in the region are now too dangerous / high risk to use. With the pause on letting traffic through the Don-Azov channel a lot of these ships are now fleeing the fish in a barrel situation Azov has become into the Black Sea, where they risk damage and possibly even sinking should the weather take a turn into something they can't handle.

Things are going great.

 

[Kirkhill]

Ukraine says it eliminated 14 more Russian shadow fleet vessels overnight

Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces said that his team had destroyed 10 tankers and four ferries, bringing the total number of destroyed Russian shadow fleet vessels to 90 units this week alone.

kyivindependent.com

And the hits just keep on coming.

 

[Kirkhill]

20 more

These were hit in the Black Sea and apparently represent a new phase after hitting 117 vessels in the Sea of Azov on the otherside of the Kerch bridge. The Azov campaign forced the Russian tankers into the Black Sea.

Unmanned Systems Forces Struck 20 Vessels of Russian Shadow Fleet in the Black Sea

Overnight on July 15, 2026, the Unmanned Systems Forces struck 20 vessels of the Russian shadow fleet in the Black Sea.Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of the USF of the Armed […]

militarnyi.com

 

[Kirkhill]

And more targets at large

A month's worth of Russia's oil exports is stuck at sea—135 million barrels loaded but not delivered - Euromaidan Press

Bloomberg's vessel-tracking and price data put the four-week value of Russia's seaborne crude exports back near $1.6 billion, down from a spike above $2.5 billion earlier this year.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Kirkhill]

EU launches mission to board Russian shadow fleet ships in Indian Ocean

"Every illicit voyage helps sustain Russia's war machine. We are matching our sanctions with actions at sea," the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas tweeted.

kyivindependent.com

https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/military/coast-guard-cutters-pacific-china-tensions/

Solomon Islands To Sign US Coast Guard Patrol Deal Despite Close Security Ties With China

Marine Insight - The maritime industry guide.

www.marineinsight.com

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-new-coast-guard-special-command-shipping

This is all starting to give be West Africa Squadron vibes.

In 1815 Britannia ruled the waves. The French and Spanish weren't up for the fight anymore and nobody else came close.
The Anti-Slavery cause gave Britain the moral pretext to enact laws the justified the policing of the high seas, extending their activity against pirates and smugglers to slave traders. On that basis they had grounds to board any civil ship and decide its fate. International trade was decided in The Admiralty in London.

This new shadow fleet campaign feels like it might be a similar campaign with the intention of replacing The Admiralty, and the United Nations, with a more Western/US friendly court.

Admiralty buildings - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Amsterdam replaced Madrid
London replaced Amsterdam
Washington continues to replace London.

And Moscow, Beijiing and Mecca detested them all.

 

[Kirkhill]

"Navalization" of Economic Warfare Turns Trade Routes Into Zones of Force

With more than 80% of global trade by volume being transported by sea, maritime shipping lanes are indispensable to the world economy. That fact was s...

maritime-executive.com

"With more than 80% of global trade by volume being transported by sea, maritime shipping lanes are indispensable to the world economy. That fact was starkly illustrated by the war in Iran, which saw Tehran effectively close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and Washington respond with a blockade of Iranian ports.

"Yet such recent events are an aberration from much of the post-Cold War period, during which economic sanctions were enforced far from the sea. Governments relied on financial infrastructure – bank messaging systems, insurance markets, shipping registries and port access rules – to restrict trade without physically stopping ships.

"But that system is now under strain. As the United States and its partners have relied more heavily on sanctions as a tool of geopolitical conflict, targeted countries have developed effective evasion networks. In response, the U.S. and its partners are increasingly returning to a more direct form of economic pressure: boarding ships at sea."


....


"A legal system built for another era

"This global expansion of maritime interdiction is colliding with an international legal framework that was not designed for it.

"Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, ships on the high seas fall under the jurisdiction of their flag state. This principle was intended to ensure predictability and limit interference with global shipping.

"There are narrow exceptions. Warships may board vessels suspected of piracy, slave trading, statelessness or false flagging. Outside these cases, boarding is generally prohibited.

"Modern sanctions enforcement is increasingly being fitted into these exceptions."