The Shadow Fleet

[OldSolduer]

In maybe time to revoke the the Treaty of Paris.
Privateering ,anyone?

I have a sword and a Martini Henry. Will that be ok?

What's the name of the ship?

 

[HavokFour]

Re-routing....

Russian 'Shadow Fleet' LNG Tankers Reroute After Blast Sinks ‘Arctic Metagaz’ in Mediterranean

Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 export network is showing early signs of disruption after an explosion sank one of its shadow fleet carriers in the Mediterranean this week, forcing other tankers to halt or reroute and raising new questions about the security of a key shipping corridor.

gcaptain.com

Well would you look at that. Ukraine's reach is now confirmed to extend to Libya.

The Mediterranean is no longer a safe place for the shadow fleet.

Ukrainian forces operating in Libya have attacked a Russian tanker, officials say

Two Libyan officials say that Ukrainian forces are operating in western Libya and that they used the region to strike a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean last month.

apnews.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Question to AI:

Is the shadow fleet growing or shrinking and has the rate of change changed since decenber 2025?

Response:

As of early 2026, the shadow fleet is still growing in size, though the rate of growth has slowed significantly compared to the rapid expansion seen in 2024 and early 2025. While the fleet "plateaued" in late 2025, it adapted to tighter sanctions by increasing its operational resilience and employing more deceptive practices, rather than shrinking.
Reuters +3

Key Trends Since December 2025:

• Continued Growth & Churn: The fleet is "adding then churning," with new, older vessels joining while others are de-listed or sanctioned, resulting in a net increase that is lower than in previous years. By March 2026, the fleet was estimated to include roughly 1,300–1,500 vessels, continuing to move about 15–20% of global oil, with a high concentration of Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan cargo.
• Shift in Rate of Change: Following a small step down in total fleet size in December 2025, the fleet has continued to add tankers (31 new additions in February 2026 alone), but increased regulatory pressure means more vessels are being removed from mainstream, high-quality registries.
• Rising Detention Rates: There has been a noticeable increase in inspection and detention of shadow tankers sailing under false flags. In March 2026 alone, several vessels were detained by European authorities.
• "False Flag" Usage: The number of vessels operating under false flags, which was a notable feature of the fleet, grew significantly in early 2026, reaching 48 known vessels by the end of March 2026.
• Older Tanker Dominance: The fleet's reliance on aging ships—often over 20 years old and lacking proper insurance—remains a major characteristic, with 13 of the 19 new joiners in December 2025 being in this category.
  Wikipedia +6

Overall, while Western sanctions have limited the pace of expansion, the shadow fleet remains a robust and evolving force in early 2026..
Kpler +1

 

[Kirkhill]

Question to AI:

How are China's oil stocks holding up?

China’s oil stocks are holding up remarkably well, functioning as a "safe haven" during the current Middle East crisis due to massive stockpiling, with an estimated 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrels in reserve (covering roughly 3–4 months of imports). While rising, self-sufficient energy production and diversified imports (Russia, Central Asia) allow Beijing to weather the disruptions better than most, despite rising transportation costs and high-priced imports impacting sectors like transport.
Reuters +5
Current Status of China's Oil Sector:

• Massive Buffer: China accumulated over 1 billion barrels in commercial and strategic reserves during 2025.
• Minimal Disruption Impact: Due to high inventory and diverse energy sources (renewables, coal, pipelines), China’s economy has shown more resilience than expected amid the ongoing conflict.
• Government Intervention: Beijing has instructed state refiners to tap into commercial reserves and suspended fuel exports to prioritize domestic supply.
• Mixed Impact on Sector: Although strategic reserves provide a buffer, high oil prices are causing rising costs in industries like plastic and transport.
• Shift in Supplies: China is relying more heavily on Russian and potentially Canadian crude to replace sanctioned Middle Eastern oil.
  JKempEnergy.com +8

If you are interested in specific types of stocks, I can help you find:

• Which Chinese NOCs (National Oil Companies) are best positioned
• How "teapot" refiners are navigating the shortage
• Which renewable energy companies are benefiting from the transition

This information is based on reports from early April 2026, amid the Iran conflict.

...

So my take is that the efforts being expended on the Shadow Fleet, Russia, Venezuela and Iran are applying some pressure and that pressure is influencing actions but it has not yet precipitated a crisis. A crisis would require another year or so of sustained pressure and no major changes in the plans of any of the major players.

Still in the first quarter.