The War in Ukraine

[PrairieFella]

Allegedly 200km of Kursk are under nominal AFU control. Fucking bananas.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/M22McCeKlM

Edit: same subreddit has geolocated videos showing dozens of Russian POWs. Wowzers.

 

[Skysix]

2 mech brigades complete with a drone unit now across the border. What seems even more interesting is there appears to be a cyber unit assigned to this breech that scours social media etc and deletes anything that could provide useful information to the Russian command structure.

I think however they need to be careful not to be victims of their own success - as with G1, managing a large number of prisoners (soon over a thousand) consumes resources and takes troops off the attack. As does securing the rapidly lengthening flanks.

 

[brihard]

Drone unit makes a ton of sense. They can move with a relatively modest footprint, stay a bound behind lead elements, and absolutely mess shit up out to a pretty solid bubble as long as they have the drones. Doubtful the Russians have much good anti drone stuff there. Drones probably give them a good 10-20km of additional precision fires, enough to detect and blunt counterattacks, and hunt high value assets.

Two brigades isn’t huge but it’s definitely not nothing.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I am betting on some public execution of Senior Officers in Moscow.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Drone unit makes a ton of sense. They can move with a relatively modest footprint, stay a bound behind lead elements, and absolutely mess shit up out to a pretty solid bubble as long as they have the drones. Doubtful the Russians have much good anti drone stuff there. Drones probably give them a good 10-20km of additional precision fires, enough to detect and blunt counterattacks, and hunt high value assets.

Two brigades isn’t huge but it’s definitely not nothing.

Is 2 mech brigades enough to push to, seize and destroy that nuc plant and then fall back?

 

[brihard]

Is 2 mech brigades enough to push to, seize and destroy that nuc plant and then fall back?

Fuck no. God no.

Any momentum possessed by two brigades goes away quickly as soon as any concerted defence in depth is mounted. Everything the Ukrainians can do with drones, Russia can do too. Armoured advances appear super vulnerable to FPVs.

To advance with this thin a force, Ukraine is passing through but not holding much. Tons of bypass. There just isn’t much threat to bypass yet. As soon as they hit any real points of resistance equipped to fight armour and block any particular patch of terrain it’ll bog down if they don’t have other forces immediately ready to outflank and keep going. A brigade is only a handful of battalions and in real terms that’s not a lot. And then you still need to deal with the threat in your now rear and astride your supply lines. Russia seems to have been caught flat footed but that will only last so long.

More importantly, the father they go, the farther they have to bring up fuel, water, ammo, food, parts, and technicians. The farther any really busted kit or people has to be hauled back.

A 60 or 70km push along a new axis and across a major river is like a theatre level effort. I’m already well beyond my comfort zone on this, but it’s just that obvious a ‘nope’. Others can and hopefully will better speak to the realistic possibilities for this operation. But the ones who really know their stuff probably won’t, and that’s fine.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I'm wondering if this might be an example of the English tactic from the Hundred Years War: a Chevauchee? A raid into enemy territory, cause as much damage as you and pull back.

​

 

[Retired AF Guy]

The Daily Kos has a collection of the reports on the Ukrainian Kursk operation, including a video of a FPV drone taking out a KA-52 attack helicopter. Also, reporting that UAF Special Forces conducted a raid on Crimea destroying Russian equipment which hasn't been confirmed by other sources. Almost forgot: two videos supposed showing our favourite TikTok soldiers in action

Russian stuff blowing up: Ukraine pushes deeper into Russia's Kursk region

Ukraine continues to advance rapidly in the Kursk area of Russia and, according to Russian bloggers, has taken control of 11 villages. Ukraine’s 22nd Brigade and the Georgian Legion are in the vanguard of this operation. There are reports that the...

www.dailykos.com

 

[RangerRay]

About the only being reported in the MSM about this incursion seems to be coming from the Guardian.

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region continues into second day

Vladimir Putin convenes meeting with top officials as defence ministry acknowledges fighting is ongoing

www.theguardian.com

 

[Maxman1]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1emo9e6/russian_in_kursk_region_talks_about_eancounter

 

[brihard]

I’ve seen geolocated video of Marders in Kursk. That would mean either the 82nd or the 25th brigades. 82nd has been previously identified in this operation so I’d guess it’s them- I wonder if we’ll see their Challenger 2s show up?

82nd, to my understanding, is a solid unit. Challenger 2, Marder, Stryker plus other kit. Whatever’s going on here, Ukraine is committed to it and willing to risk as least one good brigade with western equipment getting chewed up.

22nd brigade is also in the fight. That’s a storied unit, and this is not their first Battle of Kursk.

 

[PrairieFella]

I'm wondering if this might be an example of the English tactic from the Hundred Years War: a Chevauchee? A raid into enemy territory, cause as much damage as you and pull back.

​

I think that's exactly what this is. Anything more would be a thunder run with no good result for the 82nd and 22nd. I think the greatest damage they've done with this is the morale and confidence implosion that's going to hit the Russian populace in the next couple days.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

IMO, spoiling attack to draw Russian Reserves in and hopefully relieve pressure elsewhere. Basically a repeat of the Russian Kharkiv Offensive with the same intention.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821356396060745835

The Main Russian Defensive Line is actually miles behind the actual border.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Have a look at this site. Its in Russian. Use Google translate to get a sense of the messaging.

Карта боев в Курской области

www.svoboda.org

 

[Lumber]

 

[SeaKingTacco]

IMO, spoiling attack to draw Russian Reserves in and hopefully relieve pressure elsewhere. Basically a repeat of the Russian Kharkiv Offensive with the same intention.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1821356396060745835

The Main Russian Defensive Line is actually miles behind the actual border.

Is there actually a Russian MDL anywhere other than in Ukraine? Did the Russians get so over confident that they forgot that border incursions can be a two way street? Serious question.

 

[brihard]

Is there actually a Russian MDL anywhere other than in Ukraine? Did the Russians get so over confident that they forgot that border incursions can be a two way street? Serious question.

Obstacles not covered by fires are meaningless. If the Russians didn’t have meaningful and well equipped forces postured - and it seems like they didn’t, unless “trade Kursk oblast for time” was always the intent - then any purported MDL is just lines on the map.

 

[Kirkhill]

This chap is, perhaps, a bit over-enthusiastic but if his sources are to be believed the Ukrainians have broken through two defensive lines - one lightly held by Khadyrov's Akhmat and the other, depth, line held by conscripts. Apparently neither are showing much inclination to fight.

 

[PrairieFella]

This chap is, perhaps, a bit over-enthusiastic but if his sources are to be believed the Ukrainians have broken through two defensive lines - one lightly held by Khadyrov's Akhmat and the other, depth, line held by conscripts. Apparently neither are showing much inclination to fight.

Here's to hoping the Akhmat were mowed down. Vile war criminals basically to the man.

 

[Czech_pivo]

This chap is, perhaps, a bit over-enthusiastic but if his sources are to be believed the Ukrainians have broken through two defensive lines - one lightly held by Khadyrov's Akhmat and the other, depth, line held by conscripts. Apparently neither are showing much inclination to fight.

Alot depends on if the Ukkies have marked troops as follow on troops or have the ability, resources, to move quickly another 1-3 Mech or non-Mech brigades to continue to push forward and solidify their gains.
If they only have their initially committed troops, then 1-1.3k troops can only do so much. After 72-96hrs exhaustion/fatigue will set in and the momentum will peter out. They are 48+hrs into this this, those initial troops probably have less then 48hrs to continued drive left in them.