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Trump administration 2024-2028

Oh man the MAGA crowd will be so confused. Do they take the side of the pride parade participants because they are American, or do they take the side of the foreigner tourists because they are anti-LGBTQ?

What's the confusion? They can hate both. Though they may be confused why people are calling soccer "football".
 
oops...

Thailand denies Trump ceasefire claim as clashes with Cambodia continue at border​

Thai PM says military will keep fighting and Cambodia suspends border crossings as casualties rise


Thailand’s caretaker prime minister has denied the existence of a ceasefire with Cambodia, despite Donald Trump announcing that both countries had agreed to halt fighting.

As heavy clashes continued along the border between the two countries, Anutin Charnvirakul said on Saturday that Thailand had not agreed to a ceasefire with Cambodia and that its forces would continue fighting. Cambodia announced it had suspended all border crossings with Thailand.

Thai forces carried out strikes, including with fighter jets, while Cambodia fired rocket barrages along the border area on Saturday. The Thai army announced that at least two civilians had been seriously injured by Cambodian fire while running to a bunker.

 



I always thought we should put export tariffs on potash to fight the USA,but I realized that would come with significant pushback from the USA.


Well, thanks to Trump, they will do the damage to themselves.
So we've found the an answer on the Potash - unreal, Trump would rather trade with a (fellow) dictator in Belarus than with Canada.

US lifts sanctions on Belarusian potash,​


"As directed by President Trump, the US is lifting sanctions on potash," Cole said. "I think this is a very good move on the part of the US for Belarus. We are lifting them now."

The US envoy also noted that communication on sanctions between Washington and Minsk will continue. "As relations between the two countries normalise, more and more sanctions will be lifted," Cole said, expressing hope that in the future the parties will come to a situation where there will be no such restrictive measures at all.
 
So we've found the an answer on the Potash - unreal, Trump would rather trade with a (fellow) dictator in Belarus than with Canada.

US lifts sanctions on Belarusian potash,​


"As directed by President Trump, the US is lifting sanctions on potash," Cole said. "I think this is a very good move on the part of the US for Belarus. We are lifting them now."

The US envoy also noted that communication on sanctions between Washington and Minsk will continue. "As relations between the two countries normalise, more and more sanctions will be lifted," Cole said, expressing hope that in the future the parties will come to a situation where there will be no such restrictive measures at all.

I remeber some in here saying Trump was actually the tough on Russia president.
 
So we've found the an answer on the Potash - unreal, Trump would rather trade with a (fellow) dictator in Belarus than with Canada.

US lifts sanctions on Belarusian potash,​


"As directed by President Trump, the US is lifting sanctions on potash," Cole said. "I think this is a very good move on the part of the US for Belarus. We are lifting them now."

The US envoy also noted that communication on sanctions between Washington and Minsk will continue. "As relations between the two countries normalise, more and more sanctions will be lifted," Cole said, expressing hope that in the future the parties will come to a situation where there will be no such restrictive measures at all.

Still the matter of how Belarus will get their potash out of the country. Russia's own potash industry is a competitor, and then there's the matter of the not just EU but US sanctions on Russia.

I have a bad feeling Lithuania may be targeted to force them to allow Belarusian access to the port of Klaipėda.
 
To be fair, there is currently no tariff on Canadian potash, it's covered under CUSMA, for now. Although, Trump has mentioned a possible heavy tariff being applied at some point, hard to predict when, if at all, or how severe.

Perhaps it's a strategy for the upcoming CUSMA negotiations, pointing out America has "other options" to Canada if we try to bring up American reliance on the product, while giving Belarus (Russia?) a way to sell product.

But what benefit would there be for American farmers to ship inferior Belarusian potash across the globe? Canada still remains a better option, as of now. Why would any farmer prefer this kind of deal?

Americans would want to rely on a critical farming product from across the globe when it's available in Canada? Not seeing logic here, seems unlikely to play out that way.

Because of CUSMA, we still have one of the best deals with the USA in some regards. It could change, and it's still disappointing.
 
To be fair, there is currently no tariff on Canadian potash, it's covered under CUSMA, for now. Although, Trump has mentioned a possible heavy tariff being applied at some point, hard to predict when, if at all, or how severe.

Perhaps it's a strategy for the upcoming CUSMA negotiations, pointing out America has "other options" to Canada if we try to bring up American reliance on the product, while giving Belarus (Russia?) a way to sell product.

But what benefit would there be for American farmers to ship inferior Belarusian potash across the globe? Canada still remains a better option, as of now. Why would any farmer prefer this kind of deal?

Americans would want to rely on a critical farming product from across the globe when it's available in Canada? Not seeing logic here, seems unlikely to play out that way.

Because of CUSMA, we still have one of the best deals with the USA in some regards. It could change, and it's still disappointing.
According to this article on the Investing News Network website the top three producers of Potash are:

1. Canada​

Potash production: 15 million metric tons
Potash reserves: 1.1 billion metric tons

2. Russia​

Potash production: 9 million metric tons
Potash reserves: 920 million metric tons

3. Belarus​

Potash production: 7 million metric tons
Potash reserves: 750 million metric tons

So, if Russia were to sell their potash through their client state Belarus in order to bypass sanctions, then between them they produce 16 million metric tons annually (vs 15 million metric tons by Canada) and have total reserves between them of 1.67 billion metric tons (vs 1.1 billion metric tons in Canada).

That tracks with Trump's ongoing efforts to re-engage in business with Russia while at the same time applying economic pressure on the US's traditional allies.
 
Perhaps it's a strategy for the upcoming CUSMA negotiations, pointing out America has "other options" to Canada if we try to bring up American reliance on the product, while giving Belarus (Russia?) a way to sell product.

According to this article on the Investing News Network website the top three producers of Potash are:

1. Canada​

Potash production: 15 million metric tons
Potash reserves: 1.1 billion metric tons

2. Russia​

Potash production: 9 million metric tons
Potash reserves: 920 million metric tons

3. Belarus​

Potash production: 7 million metric tons
Potash reserves: 750 million metric tons

So, if Russia were to sell their potash through their client state Belarus in order to bypass sanctions, then between them they produce 16 million metric tons annually (vs 15 million metric tons by Canada) and have total reserves between them of 1.67 billion metric tons (vs 1.1 billion metric tons in Canada).

That tracks with Trump's ongoing efforts to re-engage in business with Russia while at the same time applying economic pressure on the US's traditional allies.

So if Canada sells 10-12MT to US annually, U.S. would most definitely have to work out how to get Belarusian potash, and as noted, would likely be by bullying/‘convincing’ Latvia/Europe to let it be transited through Latvia and the Baltic. Interesting COAs about

The question for Canada (and Belarus and Russia) is can it pivot (and how quickly) its potash sales to the international market, that would be losing the Belarusian (and proxy Russian) potash ash imports to the US?

I suspect Canada’s job might be easier (shipping potash to other international customers) than Trump will have be coming ‘dependent’ on Russia (and its proxy(ies)) for its fertilizer.
 
Meanwhile Trump is both sucking and blowing



He wants to sell more stuff and make more money but he wants to tie his customers into exclusive supply arrangements. People neither like his prices nor trust his commitment to his deals.

 
Oh man the MAGA crowd will be so confused. Do they take the side of the pride parade participants because they are American, or do they take the side of the foreigner tourists because they are anti-LGBTQ?
They may get some cognitive dissonance advice from some social conservative folks on this side of the border who don't like "those people" while point to them and saying "yay team" then "those people" don't want LGBT stuff in public schools - hate 'em unless I love 'em :)
 
They may get some cognitive dissonance advice from some social conservative folks on this side of the border who don't like "those people" while point to them and saying "yay team" then "those people" don't want LGBT stuff in public schools - hate 'em unless I love 'em :)

Red Tories
Blue Liberals
Waffling Dippers
Socialists, Marxists, Leninists, Trotskyites, Stalinists, Maoists
Social Democrats and Democratic Sociaists
Old Light and New Light Presbyterians
Recollets and Jesuits
Cistercians and Benedictines
Dominicans and Franciscans
People's Front of Judaea and the Popular Front of Judaea

7 billion brains all holding more than one idea and those dynamics reduced to a single headline.

Factions are social constructs of those who would be leaders and followers.
Ideas and principles ade secondary.
 
So if Canada sells 10-12MT to US annually, U.S. would most definitely have to work out how to get Belarusian potash, and as noted, would likely be by bullying/‘convincing’ Latvia/Europe to let it be transited through Latvia and the Baltic. Interesting COAs about

The question for Canada (and Belarus and Russia) is can it pivot (and how quickly) its potash sales to the international market, that would be losing the Belarusian (and proxy Russian) potash ash imports to the US?

I suspect Canada’s job might be easier (shipping potash to other international customers) than Trump will have be coming ‘dependent’ on Russia (and its proxy(ies)) for its fertilizer.

I am by no means an export on any of this, but from the mixed sources I've read, it seems Russia and Belarus already sell their potash to more local markets, such as China, India, and South-East Asia. Russia has had some trouble selling potash from the sanctions, but has found workarounds.

From my understanding, the Belarus / Russia potash is generally considered an inferior product. Canada has vast high-grade deposits.

Does it make any sense for the USA to get Potash from Russia and / or Belarus when a superior product is available locally from Canada?

It seems like a lot of international shipping essentially for no reason? How does this benefit the USA in any way?
 
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