US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021
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Colin Parkinson
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Because the Taliban have been preparing the ground likely for a couple of years for this offensive. They likely have been negotiating with tribes/factions, intimidating and murdering opposition, collecting intel and moving people and arms into the areas.
MilEME09
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From what I have been hearing, they were also equipped by China, likely via the ISI or Iran. American troops are quoted as finding taliban in possession of Chinese jamming equipment as an example.
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MilEME09
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Possibly both, politics played a huge part of Afghanistan, just like it did in Vietnam, the US couldn't go into Cambodia back then. Politics prevented us from going after the taliban is the Pakistani tribal region. This gave them safe haven to train and equip. Aside from the odd drone strike which needed to be a HVT we couldn't touch them till they crossed the border.
Well according to one expert, the Taliban fight for God and Belief. The ANA fights for money.
MilEME09
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Takes more then 20 years to forge a national identity
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Especially when the enmities predate Alexander the Great.
Heck. They predate Hammurabi and Sargon.
MilEME09
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You would have better luck breaking up Afghanistan into a bunch of smaller city states centered around the tribal groups.
FJAG
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My understanding is that the previous Taliban government, while providing a form of stability and local security was also notoriously incompetent when it came to the real issues facing civil administrations. I know, I know, what we cobbled together since 2001 was no shining star either but it built more things then it blew up.
MilEME09
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This morning at Rideau Hall and in Kabul - Macleans.ca
Scott Gilmore: Trudeau went to Rideau Hall because he wants to be Prime Minister a little longer. If he wanted to really do something, he would have been in a crisis ops room.
www.macleans.ca
This article claims we left behind 100 Gurkha's at our embassy, anyone know if that's true?
I’m following some decent OSINT aggregators on Twitter. This situation is increasingly desperate. Some tidbits:
So:
What will probably happen overnight (if not already) and what we probably won’t get good info on will be the really ugly scenes of desperation; shots fired to keep crowds back from aircraft/airport etc. It looks like western troops are probably on their own and I don’t know what the security perimeter looks like or how it will shrink. It may not yet.
No solid info on how many westerners are still on the ground pending evac.
There is massive potential for ‘powder keg’ violence. Panic at airport; undisciplined Talibs fire into the perimeter; green-on-blue from ANSF realizing they’re to be abandoned.
Most likely: Continued semi-orderly air movement out within the perimeter, pandemonium at the perimeter, until just the rearguard is left. No idea how that the. goes, but if the Taliban let it get to this point they’re probably playing ball.
Most dangerous: Either a large aircraft fired on and disabled on the runway, or the Taliban communicate and demonstrate their ability to do so, closing the airport to outbound as leverage for a negotiated surrender/retreat.
This is some of the most dismal shit I’ve seen in my life. My heart is breaking for those on the ground.
- NATO has closed the airport to all non-military flights. The last commercial flight (Ukrainian) got off a couple hours ago.
- Turkey is pulling pole. They will not secure the airport.
- US, UK, Fre, Ger ambassadors have moved to the airport.
- BBC reporting the US ambassador has ‘left Kabul’.
- US embassy’s flag is down and I’m starting to see reports of Talibs at the embassy.
- US has ceased all consular services on the ground and has told Americans to shelter in place and not to try to make it to the airport.
- Mixed reports that the airport took fire, though I saw one commercial flight leave a couple hours later.
- Kabul is gridlocked.
- Talibs throughout Kabul.
- Already daylight photos of pictures/paintings of women being torn down or painted over.
- Saw a video of a C-17 on the tarmac, geotagged to Kabul airport. The ramp was raised to about head level, crowd of what looked like locals on the ground behind the ramp and a bunch already on the plane pulling/pushing people up onto the ramp. Didn’t appear to be a controlled situation. Tracers in the sky in the background.
- Open source aircraft monitors are seeing a ton of tactical airlift entering the airspace before going transponders off. Based on US Navy C-130s being part of it, sorta seems like all hands on deck.
- Several smaller ISTAR birds over Kabul and Mazer e Sharif fucked off to Tajikistan and circled there.
- Kabul is surrounded by land. Only way out is air bridge.
- uncertainty about how many US troops made it to Kabul. A bunch may still be on the ground in Kuwait.
- No indication of deiberate concerted attacks on the airport so far
- No indication of attempts to close the airport by the Taliban.
So:
- This is increasingly looking like Dunkirk by air.
- Kabul airport is single runway, well within RPG or MMG/HMG range from plenty of vantage points.
- Taliban likely already have the ability to close the airport by fire if they choose.
- Taliban likely have the ability to trap a few US and UK battalions on the ground, plus whatever remains of Can, Fre, Ger, etc.
- Clock has probably already run out for terps, LEPs, at-risk locals (charities, journals, human rights etc). At this point anyone without a western passport likely isn’t getting on a military flight out, and commercial is done. Given the enemy’s likely ability to close the airport by fire at will and without notice, western interests will prioritize self-interest.
What will probably happen overnight (if not already) and what we probably won’t get good info on will be the really ugly scenes of desperation; shots fired to keep crowds back from aircraft/airport etc. It looks like western troops are probably on their own and I don’t know what the security perimeter looks like or how it will shrink. It may not yet.
No solid info on how many westerners are still on the ground pending evac.
There is massive potential for ‘powder keg’ violence. Panic at airport; undisciplined Talibs fire into the perimeter; green-on-blue from ANSF realizing they’re to be abandoned.
Most likely: Continued semi-orderly air movement out within the perimeter, pandemonium at the perimeter, until just the rearguard is left. No idea how that the. goes, but if the Taliban let it get to this point they’re probably playing ball.
Most dangerous: Either a large aircraft fired on and disabled on the runway, or the Taliban communicate and demonstrate their ability to do so, closing the airport to outbound as leverage for a negotiated surrender/retreat.
This is some of the most dismal shit I’ve seen in my life. My heart is breaking for those on the ground.
MilEME09
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If the taliban force the airport closed, there is only two ways this would go down, the west launches an offensive operation to clear the surrounding area to reopen the airport, or they negotiate. It will depend on what forces are on the ground, if the US and UK have the majority of their battalions already holding the airport, they can fight their way out, if not negotiating might be best.
EDIT: UK MoD is reporting the 16th Air assault brigade is boots on the ground I'm Kabul Airport 30 minutes ago.
EDIT: UK MoD is reporting the 16th Air assault brigade is boots on the ground I'm Kabul Airport 30 minutes ago.
OldSolduer
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Fuck. 
Mercedes Stephenson is also reporting that government sources confirmed to her that the hundred odd former Gurkhas who guarded our embassy were not approved for Canadian government evac, and she referred to “the last flight out”. Not clear if that flight has left yet.
Chanada
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ThePM would not likely have stated they were “safely on their way home” unless that flight was wheels-up.
MilEME09
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That's for our personal, if we left behind 100 Gurkhas to fend for them selves, that's a national disgrace
Let’s not think for a second that Canada calls any of the shots here. The US is deciding what lands and what takes off, and they’re going to be in full scramble to get US / westerners out.
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