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US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021
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OldSolduer
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Him and his fellow "leader" who just called an election.
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Unpopular opinion:
If I were the PM, what options do I have? I can send more troops in (hugely unpopular), get the embassy staff out (less unpopular but required), or do nothing. The staff have to GTFO regardless, and things were (are) getting worse by the hour.
Unless it's the same staff that manage this OP and the election, why wouldn't I call it? If the govt pulls it off, it's yet another win for the LPC. If not, it was "doomed to failure" and shared between govts of both parties reaching back to Chretien.
Maybe I'm completely off-base, but if I was being completely objective as a politician, that's what I'd do.
Really ugly stuff overnight... The tarmac got swarmed. There’s video of a C17 taxiing and taking off with people clinging to it. It’s unclear this morning what the situation on the ground at the airport is and if they’ve been able to clear the ramp adequately for flight operations.
As much as I would like to blame him I think this is mostly out of his control. This withdrawal was happening and from all accounts may have been blindsided like many others.
Jarnhamar
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4.3 million people in Kabul. If they picked up guns or sticks they could swarm and club the Taliban to death.
Edit: just seen the video you're talking about, pretty heart wrenching stuff.
People are so desperate they clung to the plane as it flew away, couple people fell off a couple hundred feet in the air.
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Not as if Canada and the U.S. were the only ones taken by surprise.
I can't possibly have an opinion on this informed even close to the same way yours is, or have much to say that can help you & others deal with the sadness/anger you're feeling, but I've thought about this a bit the past couple of days.
No matter what any of the politicians have said over the years, a big part of the job was covering an ally's back to give them a chance to let people help them get their act together to better defend themselves. Just because (at the very least) they didn't take maximum advantage of the opportunity they were given doesn't make the sacrifices any less worthwhile while the job was being done.
Some say giving a panhandler some money is a waste because they may misuse it. Others say giving a panhandler some money is a generous gesture no matter what happens to the money. To me, it's no less generous and honourable to give the money even if the panhandler squanders it. It's the giver's intent & what's in the giver's heart that matters.
The panhandler dropped the ball, not those trying to help, no matter what the outcome.
If you've been there, done that at some point, or lost someone in the years of this fight, know that the effort & sacrifice DID make a difference, no matter what's happening now. Who can know which young man or woman, who had a chance to go to school sometime in the past 20 years or so, may make it to a refugee camp and make a difference down the road?
Just one fat old civilian taxpayer's take, with thanks to all who worked hard & sacrificed to help over there
Jarnhamar
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Is there an intelligence version of the WHO people have been listening to?
And with Biden it's probably safer he doesn't say anything. If he opens his mouth he'll probably talk about man jammies and cerial for supper in Afghanistan.
That's a good point D&B, I hadn't thought of that before.Oh hell yeah... that's a drop in the ocean because anyone who doesn't want their heads chopped off will be trying to kill westerners to prove their loyalty...
Former CENTCOM commander says US 'may have underestimated' Taliban's 'planning capabilities'
The Taliban’s successful military operations this week may have come because the United States “underestimated” the group’s “planning capabilities,” according to one former CENTCOM commander.
Former U.S. CENTCOM commander Gen. Joseph Votel told the Washington Examiner in an interview that he has been “very, very surprised” by the “speed” with which the Taliban has captured 14 of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals as well as Kandahar and Herat.
Former CENTCOM commander says US 'may have underestimated' Taliban's 'planning capabilities'
The Taliban’s successful military operations this week may have come because the United States “underestimated” the group’s “planning capabilities,” according to one former CENTCOM commander.news.yahoo.com
I think we all underestimated just how quickly the Taliban swept across the country. I had assumed the Taliban would fight for an eventual comeback, and that it would lead to a drawn out conflict between ANSF and the Taliban. I didn't think the Taliban would essentially be retaking a province a day.
there isn’t a lack of guns either.
When we would go from village to village on patrol during my 2nd tour — most of the houses had one or two AK-47s and a few mags of ammo. Legally they were allowed to have one rifle per house, but in villages that were clearly friendly to us, we didn’t mention anything if they had more than 1.
If the people truly revolted, and could clearly identify who was Taliban and who wasnt, they could take their city back. Decisively. Very much so.
But the fear the Afghans have of the Taliban right now is palpable. Just look at the massive crowds swarming the airfield. They don’t have the communication, coordination, or anyone brave enough to step up and lead such a revolt. And it would depend on them trusting that everybody would do it, because if some do and some end up not showing up - the consequences are guaranteed.
We wouldn’t even need the 6500+ troops, plus SOF and contractors, to defend the airfield or set up a corridor where aircraft wouldn’t be fired at with small arms…the massive crowd has been a moat of sorts. The video and media thus far has been absolutely insane.
I fear the Taliban will either…
a) attempt to show forgiveness and tolerance to the general population, and offer words of reassurance. This will help ease the tension as they solidify themselves in even deeper as the government in charge. (Minus those who worked for the west)
b) be extremely busy with public executions on one hand, and making an example out of others with their other hand. (Schools, stores, harsh punishments for minor infractions, etc)
No words right now. Just watching with a sad heart, pit in my stomach, and open jaw.
I actually teared up a few times over the last few days, as I watch the news and gather info from various & other sources. I was remembering the laughs and jokes around the FOB at night, the deeper conversations we had, the talks about what it was like growing up with the Taliban in charge and what these men wanted for their families in the future. To be safe, for his kids to be educated, and to just not have to live in fear. That was it. We would joke that we would get him a job as soon as he arrived, and eventually the running joke was that he was the future manager of our local McDonald’s. He was so genuinely excited for that, I think that ended up being he visualized his dream.)
They were good people, who genuinely did extreme or valuable work for us, and just wanted a life free of violence and fear. That was all they really wanted in the end. They were with us ducking behind walls in TICs, helping us fill sandbags when was time to replace a few, and would run to someone if they were hurt or down. (I rolled my ankle pretty badly once in this stupid little rut in the dirt, on a route we walked quite often. It felt extremely broken. It was our terp who caught me before I rolled even further outside of the ‘marked safe’ pathway we had, and grabbed some of my kit without me even asking & grabbed my belt to support me as I hobbled along to a point where I could sit and check it out.)
Thinking of all those chats, talks, memories of FOB life and random things on patrol, and how genuinely helpful he was with local villagers and such…the thought of him hiding under a floor, terrified that every noise or loud voice was the Taliban coming for him or his family, it just makes me feel so angry, heartbroken, yet also empty at the same time. Prior to this last month, I had assumed our helpers had been moved here YEARS ago, as we agreed on.)
Anyways. Just sitting here watching with everybody else. No words really, because there isn’t a point…
For those who deployed, or lost colleagues, friends, sons or daughters, moms or dads, etc - I don’t know what I can say that will help. It will sound superficial regardless. But stay strong, whatever that looks like.
If you are married to someone who deployed at one point or another, please just give them space to be pissed off. It’s not as simple as “Well you did what you could, this isn’t your fault, this isn’t your problem.”
It’s Monday morning. Stay safe & be good people my friends, it’s a new week.
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And a heaping helping of irony in the midst of the madness, from Chinese state media:
"China respects Afghans’ choice, expects Taliban to keep its words of establishing inclusive govt"
(text of full article attached to avoid including a link to CHN servers - post edited to add a link to an archived version of the article)
"China respects Afghans’ choice, expects Taliban to keep its words of establishing inclusive govt"
(text of full article attached to avoid including a link to CHN servers - post edited to add a link to an archived version of the article)
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... in the same way that one person's "concentration camp" is another's "re-education & skills training facility" ....
Anyone got a feel for what kind of mechanized assets the US has on the ground? At this point I simply can’t see a rearguard making it out by air. C17s were taking off with people literally climbing on them, and that was with a few thousand troops still on the ground. I struggle to imagine a final exit that doesn’t involve a road move to Uzbekistan under the biggest goddamned air cover the world has ever seen.
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This tidbit from a BBC report leapt out at me (highlights all mine) ....
... as did this RUS state media report (text attached to avoid linking to RUS servers - edited to add archived version here)
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MilEME09
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Popular Military
The latest news about United States service members around the world.
Gut wrenching that people are trying to hold onto the exterior of aircraft to escape
Yeah. And that’s with a brigade of troops on airfield security. Unless the Taliban themselves provide flight line security, what’s the rearguard gonna look like?Popular Military
The latest news about United States service members around the world.popularmilitary.com
Gut wrenching that people are trying to hold onto the exterior of aircraft to escape
daftandbarmy
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We're watching airport videos and assuming the entire country is in a panic to leave. There are also videos of Taliban parades with kids swarming vehicles and throwing rocks at images of politicians. I'm willing to bet there is a sizable portion of the Afghan population that is happy right now.
The only reason I mention this is that the narrative seems to be that the Taliban are taking over the Afghan people. Remember, the Taliban are the Afghan people, or at least a segment of them. In civil wars, there are winners, and there are losers. What we are witnessing is the sad end of scores being settled when a foreign proxy government falls.
The only reason I mention this is that the narrative seems to be that the Taliban are taking over the Afghan people. Remember, the Taliban are the Afghan people, or at least a segment of them. In civil wars, there are winners, and there are losers. What we are witnessing is the sad end of scores being settled when a foreign proxy government falls.
Colin Parkinson
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The Taliban will play nice for a bit, they are smart enough to realize that a win is a huge problem for them, they now have a country to run and no assurance of any revenue. So for the short term they will attempt to look like they can be trusted to run a government. The question is how long can they control the crazies? They have a large swath of uneducated fighters brought up on fundamental Islam who will start enforcing 14th century rules as soon as they can. They won't be as crazy as ISIS, but it's going to really suck for anyone educated.
When the money runs out will the tribes stay bought? I highly doubt it.
When the money runs out will the tribes stay bought? I highly doubt it.
Colin Parkinson
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The myth of Chinese investment in Afghanistan
Little evidence that war-torn country is a strategic priority for Beijing
asia.nikkei.com
None of this is to dismiss China's aid efforts in Afghanistan. The key point is that aid has been limited, with the few substantial achievements tending to be driven by Chinese companies and entrepreneurs operating on their own. Notwithstanding serious and high-level Chinese engagement, the Mes Aynak project remains in limbo, suggesting a limit to how far China wants to force its companies to operate within the country.
Moreover, all of this took place while the country was at least substantially under the command of a government that possessed a degree of international accountability and expertise. While past experience has shown a willingness by Chinese companies to engage with the Taliban, they are certainly not Beijing's preferred choice. The assurances that Chinese investors would need to proceed further will likely take some time to materialize.
The sad truth is that China is a missed economic opportunity for Afghanistan. And there is little chance that the instability that will follow a Taliban takeover is going to change that.
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