It ain't over till it's over....
As the Taliban advances, Afghan military overhauls its war strategy
Reeling from a surge in battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the
Taliban to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, so both
Afghan and US officials say. The politically perilous strategy will inevitably cede territory to
Taliban insurgents, but officials say it appears to be a military necessity as over-stretched
Afghan troops try to prevent the loss of provincial capitals, which could deeply fracture the country. The consolidation of forces, which has been publicly acknowledged but not reported in such detail before, coincides with the US military withdrawal ahead of a formal end to the military mission on the 31st August, on orders from President Joe Biden.
Taliban insurgents are gaining control of more and more territory, which the
Pentagon estimated on Wednesday the 21st July now extends to over half of half Afghanistan's
District Centres. The
Taliban also are putting pressure on the outskirts of half of the provincial capitals, trying to isolate them. US intelligence assessments have warned that the Afghan government could fall in as little as six months, so US officials told
Reuters.
One Afghan official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the "re-orientation" of troops would help Kabul hold strategic territory, and defend infrastructure, including a dam built with India's assistance, and major highways. However, consolidating troops also means leaving other areas unguarded ,which is a `
hard sell’ to Afghan communities or ethnic groups who will feel they are being abandoned to the
Taliban. "How do you communicate this to a public that has been jittery, and understandably so over the past few weeks in which the
Taliban have been taking over districts?" the Afghan official. "Because a major part of this re-orientation would entail, at least in the short term, the
Taliban filling in the vacuum that we are leaving behind." The US Army General, Mark Milley, the
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the strategy would involve "giving up
District Centres" to protect larger population centres, like the capital Kabul. He said the
Taliban appeared to have "strategic momentum." "There is a possibility of a complete
Taliban takeover or a possibility of any number of other scenarios," Milley told a news conference on Wednesday, adding: "I do not think that the endgame is yet written."
US Marine General, Kenneth McKenzie,
Commander of US Central Command, which oversees US Forces in Afghanistan and support to
Afghan troops, said after being briefed on the plan this month the
Afghans knew that they had to pick their battles. "You can't defend everything. If you defend everywhere, you defend nowhere. So I think the
Afghans realise they need to consolidate," McKenzie said, without offering details.
He noted years-old US concerns about how
Afghan forces were manning checkpoints, including in remote or hostile areas that are particularly vulnerable or serve little strategic value. "So, I think now they are now in the process of recognising that sometimes you have got to pull back, you have got to consolidate, you have got to defend those areas that are absolutely critical," McKenzie said. The
Afghan Ministry of Defence did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The
Taliban's swift territorial gains are rattling
Afghans just as the United States withdraws from a war that succeeded in punishing
al Qaeda following its 11th September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington but failed to deliver anything close to peace for Afghanistan. Biden has promised to provide financial assistance to
Afghan forces and to redouble diplomatic efforts to revive stalled peace talks; but the
Taliban have not responded to calls from 15 diplomatic missions and the
NATO Representative in Afghanistan on Monday the 19th July to halt their military offensives. The insurgents and the
Afghan government also failed to agree on a ceasefire at talks in Doha for this week's
Eid holidays. In the past, the
Taliban have called short cease-fires for
Eid, saying they wanted to let
Afghans spend them in peace. US military officials believe the
Taliban are seeking to end the war with a battlefield victory, instead of at the negotiating table.
`Not sustainable’
For years, the US military has been trying to get
Afghan troops off of far-flung checkpoints, those static positions that can easily be over-run by
Taliban forces. "Maintaining this spread out, every district is sacred mindset, is simply only going to lead to more losses," said Jason Campbell, a former
Pentagon official now at
RAND Corporation. "It's just not sustainable."
The troop reorganisation will require, in some cases, building new fortifications and creating new combinations of forces, the
Afghan official said, but it will also demand that
Afghans must shift their thinking about how much they can do to respond to
Taliban attacks and skirmishes, as their
Air Force gets stretched, and US support wanes. Equally tricky for Kabul is explaining battlefield strategy in a way that does not offend any of Afghanistan's ethnic groups, which include
Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and
Uzbeks because not all areas will receive the same level of protection. More than a quarter-million
Afghans have been forced from their homes this year, according to the
United Nations.
Reeling from a surge in battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the Taliban to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, Afghan and U.S. officials say.
www.reuters.com