This sounds a lot like Nationalist strategy in the Chinese Civil War to me. Give up the rural areas to the enemy, hold onto cities and other strategic locations to maintain "power". I'm guessing the result will be the same, the Taliban swiftly occupies uncontested areas, before slowly taking over cities and gaining more power.It ain't over till it's over....
As the Taliban advances, Afghan military overhauls its war strategy
Reeling from a surge in battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the Taliban to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, so both Afghan and US officials say. The politically perilous strategy will inevitably cede territory to Taliban insurgents, but officials say it appears to be a military necessity as over-stretched Afghan troops try to prevent the loss of provincial capitals, which could deeply fracture the country. The consolidation of forces, which has been publicly acknowledged but not reported in such detail before, coincides with the US military withdrawal ahead of a formal end to the military mission on the 31st August, on orders from President Joe Biden.
Taliban insurgents are gaining control of more and more territory, which the Pentagon estimated on Wednesday the 21st July now extends to over half of half Afghanistan's District Centres. The Taliban also are putting pressure on the outskirts of half of the provincial capitals, trying to isolate them. US intelligence assessments have warned that the Afghan government could fall in as little as six months, so US officials told Reuters.
One Afghan official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the "re-orientation" of troops would help Kabul hold strategic territory, and defend infrastructure, including a dam built with India's assistance, and major highways. However, consolidating troops also means leaving other areas unguarded ,which is a `hard sell’ to Afghan communities or ethnic groups who will feel they are being abandoned to the Taliban. "How do you communicate this to a public that has been jittery, and understandably so over the past few weeks in which the Taliban have been taking over districts?" the Afghan official. "Because a major part of this re-orientation would entail, at least in the short term, the Taliban filling in the vacuum that we are leaving behind." The US Army General, Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the strategy would involve "giving up District Centres" to protect larger population centres, like the capital Kabul. He said the Taliban appeared to have "strategic momentum." "There is a possibility of a complete Taliban takeover or a possibility of any number of other scenarios," Milley told a news conference on Wednesday, adding: "I do not think that the endgame is yet written."
US Marine General, Kenneth McKenzie, Commander of US Central Command, which oversees US Forces in Afghanistan and support to Afghan troops, said after being briefed on the plan this month the Afghans knew that they had to pick their battles. "You can't defend everything. If you defend everywhere, you defend nowhere. So I think the Afghans realise they need to consolidate," McKenzie said, without offering details.
He noted years-old US concerns about how Afghan forces were manning checkpoints, including in remote or hostile areas that are particularly vulnerable or serve little strategic value. "So, I think now they are now in the process of recognising that sometimes you have got to pull back, you have got to consolidate, you have got to defend those areas that are absolutely critical," McKenzie said. The Afghan Ministry of Defence did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Taliban's swift territorial gains are rattling Afghans just as the United States withdraws from a war that succeeded in punishing al Qaeda following its 11th September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington but failed to deliver anything close to peace for Afghanistan. Biden has promised to provide financial assistance to Afghan forces and to redouble diplomatic efforts to revive stalled peace talks; but the Taliban have not responded to calls from 15 diplomatic missions and the NATO Representative in Afghanistan on Monday the 19th July to halt their military offensives. The insurgents and the Afghan government also failed to agree on a ceasefire at talks in Doha for this week's Eid holidays. In the past, the Taliban have called short cease-fires for Eid, saying they wanted to let Afghans spend them in peace. US military officials believe the Taliban are seeking to end the war with a battlefield victory, instead of at the negotiating table.
`Not sustainable’
For years, the US military has been trying to get Afghan troops off of far-flung checkpoints, those static positions that can easily be over-run by Taliban forces. "Maintaining this spread out, every district is sacred mindset, is simply only going to lead to more losses," said Jason Campbell, a former Pentagon official now at RAND Corporation. "It's just not sustainable."
The troop reorganisation will require, in some cases, building new fortifications and creating new combinations of forces, the Afghan official said, but it will also demand that Afghans must shift their thinking about how much they can do to respond to Taliban attacks and skirmishes, as their Air Force gets stretched, and US support wanes. Equally tricky for Kabul is explaining battlefield strategy in a way that does not offend any of Afghanistan's ethnic groups, which include Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks because not all areas will receive the same level of protection. More than a quarter-million Afghans have been forced from their homes this year, according to the United Nations.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/GRU424MDORJ2PBNAEVLBCZDCHE.jpg)
Exclusive: As Taliban advances, Afghan military overhauls war strategy
Reeling from a surge in battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the Taliban to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, Afghan and U.S. officials say.www.reuters.com
Is there any medium-sized island nearby?
