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US VS G7

Altair said:
I'm going to side with the rest of the free world+china.

It will be interesting.

China hasn’t even started to swing punches yet. Calling in America’s debt markers would have a profound effect on the American economy. 

America is certainly poised to win lots of economical tactical battles in the near future.........
 
tomahawk6 said:
The US has a huge open market that many countries wantbooming economy with goods and services in demand its even more attractive.
it certainly does.

Shame they want to make it harder for other countries to sell to them,  and as a result those countries making it harder for American companies to export.
 
Good2Golf said:
It will be interesting.

China hasn’t even started to swing punches yet. Calling in America’s debt markers would have a profound effect on the American economy. 

America is certainly poised to win lots of economical tactical battles in the near future.........
I don't think they win the long game. A lot of countries were hit with this off guard. But once the initial surprise is over, then comes the pushback.

https://www.google.ca/amp/amp.timeinc.net/time/5319575/donald-trump-us-trade-tariffs-eu-india-turkey-china

And the highest-stakes fight still looms: In two weeks, the United States is to start taxing $34 billion in Chinese goods. Beijing has vowed to immediately retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. soybeans and other farm products in a direct shot at President Donald Trump’s supporters in America’s heartland.

The tit-for-tat conflict between the United States and China — the world’s two largest economies — is poised to escalate from there. The rhetoric is already intensifying.

“We oppose the act of extreme pressure and blackmail by swinging the big stick of trade protectionism,” a spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday. “The U.S. is abusing the tariff methods and starting trade wars all around the world

“We’ve never seen anything like this,” said Mary Lovely, a Syracuse University economist who studies international trade — at least not since countries tried to wall themselves off from foreign competition during the Great Depression.
Hmmm
 
SeaKingTacco said:
You seem like you are in an awfully big hurry to get into a war.

Why?
me? I would prefer there was no trade war.

But if we are going to be dragged into one,  might as well win it.
 
Altair said:
I don't think they win the long game. A lot of countries were hit with this off guard. But once the initial surprise is over, then comes the pushback....

Note I left a long ...........  after postulating they’d win a lot of tactical economic battles.  I think America thinking it’s going to be winning a strategic trade war is far from a sure thing.

G2G
 
I think Trump will drop tariffs in exchange for EU and Canada dropping their subsidies,which then levels the playing field.
 
tomahawk6 said:
I think Trump will drop tariffs in exchange for EU and Canada dropping their subsidies,which then levels the playing field.
Interesting. Would the US also drop their subsidies? Or are those above board?

farmers alone receive 20 billion.
 
Lets review the desired end state:

https://www.justrightmedia.org/blog/archives/8776

Just Right 561- June 21, 2018
TRUMP TRADE TIRADE

It’s too bad that the substance of U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement at the G7 Summit in Charlevoix Quebec on June 9 was utterly lost on the general public.  His message needed to be heard.

The media tirades against Trump’s policy on trade serve a purpose and it is not to enlighten.  Their purpose is to create confusion about where Trump stands on free trade, to hide corrupt trade practices like ‘Supply Management’ in Canada, and to express their hatred about the reality that U.S. President Donald Trump holds all the cards – and Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau holds none.

Both the mainstream media and Leftist political interests portray Trump’s threats of tariffs and trade barriers as a threat to the status quo trade that exists now.  None want to acknowledge Trump’s strategy as a means to push other nations to drop their own tariffs, barriers, and subsidies – which is exactly what Donald Trump has been telling them he’s doing all along.

“No tariffs.  No barriers.  No subsidies.  That’s the way it should be,” Trump stressed at the G7 Summit, but few have even heard these words, and continue to believe that Trump is against ‘free trade.’

Added White House chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow: “I don’t know if (the NAFTA negotiators) were surprised by President Trump’s free trade proclamation, but they certainly listened to it and we had lengthy discussions about that.  Reduce barriers.  In fact, go to zero.  Zero tariffs.  Zero subsidies.  And along the way we’ll have to clean up the international trading system. This is the best way to encourage economic growth."


Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has boldly and virtuously taken the position that Canada won’t allow itself to get ‘pushed around’ by Trump.  He has been supported by the likes of past Conservative MPs Jason Kenney and John Baird, as well as Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford who is about to take the helm as Ontario’s premier elect.

The free trade issue makes strange bedfellows.  It also makes hypocrites of those who abandon recognized principles – to achieve power at the expense of losing their objective.

Just ask Maxime Bernier, whose opinions on Canada’s own trade barriers were expressed in a previously-deleted-from-his-book Chapter 5: “Live or die with supply management.”  It is an indictment of supply management, both in theory and in practice.

Unfortunately, evidence and argument are often not enough to sway those who have interests to protect at the expense of the public purse.

Consequently, there are those who view the issue of free trade as an ‘ideological’ one.  Others see it as mere ‘economic theory.’

It is both, but it is more. Above all, free trade is a moral issue – one that concerns the justifiable use of force in society.

Though the G7 nations would all benefit from trade free of tariffs and barriers, it is those opposing Trump who hypocritically hold most of the barrier cards in this trading game.  Watching Canada’s prime minister as the joker at the table, it’s clear that America holds the Trump card.

Whether free trade is seen as economic theory or ideology, the bottom line on free trade is that in the end (and as an end), it’s Just Right for everyone.

Since maintaining the Status Quo is not the answer President Trump wants, he is putting pressure on the various players, enough to move people off their positions (see the German auto industry) and essentially force changes.  When powerful internal players are pushing against the political establishments in order to retain market access to the United States, then presenting any sort of United front will be difficult. For people doubting that the US cannot "take on the world", remember the US is a continental economy with over 300 million customers, so while there will be hardship, there is also a lot of room in the internal market to take up the slack.

So President Trump is playing a very complex multivalent game (I'm pretty sure part of what is happening is an attempt to take some of the economic wind out of China's sails in order to hamper the Chinese military buildup) in order to shake up the global status quo and realign things quite differently.
 
Altair said:
me? I would prefer there was no trade war.

But if we are going to be dragged into one,  might as well win it.

We cannot win a trade war against our neighbour, whose economy is 10x the size of ours. We can match them tariff for tariff all day long and we wil still be crushed. Them? Not so much. I cannot stress enough how stupid it is to fight a trade war on the terms that some in the US would like us to fight.

The only way to win against the US is to play for time; making as few concessions as possible, while we lobby the crap out of those in Congress that matter. Oh yeah, and clean up our own crappy record on free trade and competitiveness in the meantime, too.

I still, for the life of me, cannot figure out why 12,000 (ish) dairy farmers in Canada are being defended like they are the Crown Jewels....
 
SeaKingTacco said:
We cannot win a trade war against our neighbour, whose economy is 10x the size of ours. We can match them tariff for tariff all day long and we wil still be crushed. Them? Not so much. I cannot stress enough how stupid it is to fight a trade war on the terms that some in the US would like us to fight.

The only way to win against the US is to play for time; making as few concessions as possible, while we lobby the crap out of those in Congress that matter. Oh yeah, and clean up our own crappy record on free trade and competitiveness in the meantime, too.

I still, for the life of me, cannot figure out why 12,000 (ish) dairy farmers in Canada are being defended like they are the Crown Jewels....
And canada couldn't defeat the Germans in WW2,  but we had help,  didn't we?
 
Thucydides, I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts about how the US intends to repeal the 2014 Congressional Farming Appropriation Act to remove massive farm (both agricultural and dairy) subsidies?  As well, very interested to hear your perspective on the Wisconsin Dairy Farming Board, that represents a large portion of the small to medium sized family owned dairy farms, that  makes the case for a supply managed methodology like Canada’s to give its members greater stability in the production (and export) of dairy products, thereby reducing the perturbations that contribute to small producers’ closure and absorption by large dairy producing conglomerates?

SKT, agree combination political play for manoeuvre time, including targeted engagement with key American trade players who have constituents who will be disproportionately impacted by import tariffs, is a sound COA. :nod:

Regards
G2G
 
Good2Golf said:
Thucydides, I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts about how the US intends to repeal the 2014 Congressional Farming Appropriation Act to remove massive farm (both agricultural and dairy) subsidies?  As well, very interested to hear your perspective on the Wisconsin Dairy Farming Board, that represents a large portion of the small to medium sized family owned dairy farms, that  makes the case for a supply managed methodology like Canada’s to give its members greater stability in the production (and export) of dairy products, thereby reducing the perturbations that contribute to small producers’ closure and absorption by large dairy producing conglomerates?

SKT, agree combination political play for manoeuvre time, including targeted engagement with key American trade players who have constituents who will be disproportionately impacted by import tariffs, is a sound COA. :nod:

Regards
G2G


I agree 100% with the highlighted bit.
 
Same here.

You don’t take on the Romans in open warfare.  You hit them where it hurts.
 
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