All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[brihard]

For shits & giggles, a tracker following the odds of AB voting in favour of independence by the end of this calendar year

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025? Odds & Predic... | Polymarket

Real-time odds on "Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025?" as of November 28, 2025.

polymarket.com

Poilievre will have no trouble winning the riding I expect (I really mean it this time!), but it’ll be interesting to see how separatist sentiment impacts the noises around it.

The leader of the so-called “Republican Party of Alberta” has said he intends to run as a candidate in the byelection, presumably capitalizing on the attention this will get.

National Post: “Separatists want to 'hold Poilievre's feet to the fire' in Alberta byelection bid”

https://archive.is/Llj4U

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Poilievre will have no trouble winning the riding I expect (I really mean it this time!), but it’ll be interesting to see how separatist sentiment impacts the noises around it.

The leader of the so-called “Republican Party of Alberta” has said he intends to run as a candidate in the byelection, presumably capitalizing on the attention this will get.

National Post: “Separatists want to 'hold Poilievre's feet to the fire' in Alberta byelection bid”

https://archive.is/Llj4U

PP may regret picking that riding. Rural Eastern Alberta has stronger separatist sentiment than most areas.

 

[brihard]

PP may regret picking that riding. Rural Eastern Alberta has stronger separatist sentiment than most areas.

I doubt he’s in any danger, but there may be distracting noise he doesn’t want.

Shoulda just run in Renfrew…

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I doubt he’s in any danger, but there may be distracting noise he doesn’t want.

Shoulda just run in Renfrew…

I meant that he could easily run his mouth into stupid territory, if not careful.

 

[Remius]

I meant that he could easily run his mouth into stupid territory, if not careful.

The LPC a will definitely be looking for sound bites for further use down the road…

 

[MilEME09]

I meant that he could easily run his mouth into stupid territory, if not careful.

Or we could get the down right strange of the ppc winning the seat

 

[Remius]

Or we could get the down right strange of the ppc winning the seat

Are they running a candidate? I don’t give them good odds. But they said that about Bruce Fanjoy in Carleton.

 

[brihard]

Are they running a candidate? I don’t give them good odds. But they said that about Bruce Fanjoy in Carleton.

They ran one in the election. 1.58%.

Election Night Results - Electoral Districts

Election results by electoral district, for federal elections in Canada.

enr.elections.ca

 

[The Bread Guy]

PP may regret picking that riding. Rural Eastern Alberta has stronger separatist sentiment than most areas.

I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep him outta the seat but it’s a different constituency than he would have had in any Ontario seat that’s just as safely Blue. It’ll be interesting to watch how he plays it, especially if hard separatists are running against him there.

 

[dapaterson]

I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep him outta the seat but it’s a different constituency than he would have had in any Ontario seat that’s just as safely Blue. It’ll be interesting to watch how he plays it, especially if hard separatists are running against him there.

Margin of victory is going to be the indicator.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep him outta the seat but it’s a different constituency than he would have had in any Ontario seat that’s just as safely Blue. It’ll be interesting to watch how he plays it, especially if hard separatists are running against him there.

Lets be clear- he is not going to lose the by-election.

The byelection is going to be showcase for what ever separatist sentiment that can be mustered in Alberta. That is where the potential for mis-step might happen. He doesn’t know the riding; he might not be well briefed on the issues. Things can go more badly than he would like.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... The byelection is going to be showcase for what ever separatist sentiment that can be mustered in Alberta. That is where the potential for mis-step might happen ...

Seen - and agreed. That'll be what makes it interesting to watch: PP's performance when he can't ignore the AB separation issue/questions.

 

[HavokFour]

Margin of victory is going to be the indicator.

This and depending on how that turns out his ability to regularly touch base with his new constituents. From what I hear he was quite absent in Carleton for a long time, now adding a plane ride to the mix.

 

[MilEME09]

The Alberta advantage is dead, and just like separation, we owe it more to Smith and the UCP than anything else. Especially insurance increases, and electricity rates(some of the highest in the country)

Jim Stanford: Let’s drop the phoney Alberta versus Canada nonsense. The province has met the enemy — and it is them

During the so-called decade of federal 'attacks on oil,' Alberta oil giants set records for production and profits, writes Jim Stanford. So why is the average Albertan not getting their

www.thestar.com

 

[brihard]

This and depending on how that turns out his ability to regularly touch base with his new constituents. From what I hear he was quite absent in Carleton for a long time, now adding a plane ride to the mix.

I lived in his riding for seven years, never caught a whiff of him doing or pushing anything local. I’m not saying he never did, just that I’m reasonably attentive and I never noticed it if he did.

I will say in fairness that his constituency assistants did a bang up job helping me sort out a federal survivor benefits issue with Service Canada for a family member of mine.

 

[Remius]

I lived in his riding for seven years, never caught a whiff of him doing or pushing anything local. I’m not saying he never did, just that I’m reasonably attentive and I never noticed it if he did.

I will say in fairness that his constituency assistants did a bang up job helping me sort out a federal survivor benefits issue with Service Canada for a family member of mine.

After the Dericho hit the riding hard, I don’t recall seeing or hearing anything from him.

The local councillor yes and even Goldy whom I have no real fondness for opened up her office so people could come get coffee or charge their phones etc

Only time I saw him was during previous election times knocking on doors and only talking to friendly voters. This election the boundary changed so obviously I didn’t see him this time.

 

[brihard]

After the Dericho hit the riding hard, I don’t recall seeing or hearing anything from him.

The local councillor yes and even Goldy whom I have no real fondness for opened up her office so people could come get coffee or charge their phones etc

Only time I saw him was during previous election times knocking on doors and only talking to friendly voters. This election the boundary changed so obviously I didn’t see him this time.

You’re right; that could be fairly described as a minor natural disaster in the riding. Didn’t hear shit from him.

 

[GK .Dundas]

After the Dericho hit the riding hard, I don’t recall seeing or hearing anything from him.

The local councillor yes and even Goldy whom I have no real fondness for opened up her office so people could come get coffee or charge their phones etc

Only time I saw him was during previous election times knocking on doors and only talking to friendly voters. This election the boundary changed so obviously I didn’t see him this time.

Dericho ?

 

[dapaterson]

Dericho ?

Windstorm.

 

[lenaitch]

Dericho ?

May 2022 Canadian derecho - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org