Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Czech_pivo]

Defence Industrial Strategy is leaking. Going to be a fun week for me at work...

The document has been available here for a number of days already.

 

[ytz]

The document has been available here for a number of days already.

Well aware. It's why I'm in for an interesting week. Anybody who's project or area is deemed strategic in there is probably going to be getting more this week.

 

[ytz]

70% Canadian procurement is a high bar. I have a feeling the navy will be doing a lot of heavy lifting for that.

Sure. But they also haven't defined what is Canadian. Is Saab bolting on their radar onto a Global more Canadian than Elbit doing the same?

It's also the end goal over a decade.

Mostly just curious how they will operationalize this. That piece seems missing. And it's clear they need a new defence strategy.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Well aware. It's why I'm in for an interesting week. Anybody who's project or area is deemed strategic in there is probably going to be getting more this week.

What are your thoughts on the content of the approach?
Too high level?
Specific enough for the time being?

 

[ytz]

I like the ambition. Question whether it is achievable. There are concrete obstacles that we discussed at work (like security clearances and accreditation) that made it in. Somebody is listening. But they are deliberately vague on how they will define things. And the document seems out of place without an accompanying new strategy. Which after Davos, is clearly necessary.

A list of goals without a plan is not really a strategy. It's a wishlist. This is closer to wishlist than strategy.

But I'm guessing they are being vague because they still want room to deal with the Trump administration. We might be trading F-35s for CUSMA renewal.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I like the ambition. Question whether it is achievable. There are concrete obstacles that we discussed at work (like security clearances and accreditation) that made it in. Somebody is listening. But they are deliberately vague on how they will define things. And the document seems out of place without an accompanying new strategy. Which after Davos, is clearly necessary.

A list of goals without a plan is not really a strategy. It's a wishlist. This is closer to wishlist than strategy.

But I'm guessing they are being vague because they still want room to deal with the Trump administration. We might be trading F-35s for CUSMA renewal.

I agree with your thoughts on F35 (most likely more than 88 frames) for CUSMA. The price might even be, that, plus buy in now in the F-47 programme as well.

 

[ytz]

I agree with your thoughts on F35 (most likely more than 88 frames) for CUSMA. The price might even be, that, plus buy in now in the F-47 programme as well.

Lol. No. I don't think we're buying more than the 88. Or at least not much more. And we just definitely aren't joining NGAD. It's not a program open to foreigners. And the government doesn't want to create another defence obligation with the US. Who knows. They may well have made a decision on the Gripen and this could be the soft launch. Pretty clear where the space projects are going for me.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Lol. No. I don't think we're buying more than the 88. Or at least not much more. And we just definitely aren't joining NGAD. It's not a program open to foreigners. And the government doesn't want to create another defence obligation with the US. Who knows. They may well have made a decision on the Gripen and this could be the soft launch. Pretty clear where the space projects are going for me.

I was thinking of the cost angle as to why NGAD might be open to us (and others) down the road. I don’t see a path forward for the US in terms of costs for just about everything. At 38+ trillion in debt and growing each and every year, a day of reckoning will come sooner or later.

I think ‘avionics’ was number 2 or 3 on the list, was wondering if that is linked to Gripen’s or something else.

Funny that ‘ammunition’, unclear if we are going to corner the market on 5.56 going forward or if that means 155mm, was deemed #1 priority.

Seems like we might be flushed going forward with 155 for our remaining 36 arty pieces.

 

[ytz]

GDLS, GDOTS, Colt Canada, BGC, Irving, Seaspan, CAE, CMC, MDA me, Telesat and LockMart Canada about to win big.