Replacing the Subs

[Rainbow1910]

TKMS previously stated Canada would have to enter into negotiations with Germany and Norway to secure production slots even if TKMS was declared the winner, so now that’s off the table?

Yeah I don’t believe them at all, this comes off as saying whatever the customer wants to hear to get them to say yes to your bid.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Of note, the TKMS CEO said at CANSEC they now are able to supply 4 x Type 212CDs to Canada by 2036, by offering up boats that were previously set aside for Germany and Norway. That to me hints at a level of desperation by the Germans.

I bet there are going to be some very heated phone calls coming from Norway and the Deutsche Marine to explain how they intend to honour all of their existing commitments.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

If we go TKMS, I think we are going to get bitten with delivery delays and production errors and warranty claims as TKMS is trying to do more than it possibly can.

 

[brihard]

This smells of TKMS throwing a desperate Hail Mary on a game they think they’re about to lose.

 

[Underway]

They don't have auto industry in their bid. Hanwa does with their maint and build factory for army vehicles. If they lose that is likely why.

 

[Czech_pivo]

They don't have auto industry in their bid. Hanwa does with their maint and build factory for army vehicles. If they lose that is likely why.

The dubious Ger/Nor timelines won't be the reason?

 

[Rainbow1910]

The Koreans also signed a large and wide reaching MOU with Alberta as part of their bid, which is going to be especially relevant given the current political environment.

 

[Halifax Tar]

And I still wouldn't trust that. That could change the day after signing the dotted line.

100% As stated by others this reeks of empty promises made in desperation.

 

[Underway]

The dubious Ger/Nor timelines won't be the reason?

Timelines don't seem to appear anywhere in the % for bid points. If they can meet IOC by '35 then they meet the contract requirements. There may be a few points in some other category that includes delivery timelines but I don't see it. You can only judge things on the criteria that exist.

Financial Post reported that the bid scoring is already done and the paperwork is making its way up the chain to cabinet right now. So no reason to doubt the PM's comments on timing.

 

[Eaglelord17]

of note is the fact that the CBC pushed the cash benefits and person years for the 212CD along with the sustaining facilities to be built without ever drawing the comparison to Korea who from what I have read are proposing identical facilities AND buying steel from Algoma to boot. A little push perhaps from inside government to sway the public in favour of the German proposal?

They wouldn’t just be buying steel from Algoma, they would also be building a structural beam mill at Algoma too.

 

[Nvlgzr]

Mark your calendars, defense minister just said at cansec the decision will be in the next 4 to 5 weeks.

Since 6 CF personnel are sailing on Dosan Ahn Changho back to Hawaii and Dosan Ahn Changho is participating in Rimpac; I would expect the announcement after our crew members have disembarked in Hawaii.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Since 6 CF personnel are sailing on Dosan Ahn Changho back to Hawaii and Dosan Ahn Changho is participating in Rimpac; I would expect the announcement after our crew members have disembarked in Hawaii.

Yea that might be awkward if we go German. KSS arrives in Pearl, "Where are the Canadians?"

Sub CO "They got off midway when they heard the news"

"Umm what, how, where?"

Sub CO "I think English expression is : Long walk, short plank"

 

[calculus]

Very interesting analysis by Philippe Legase on the different approaches between SK and Germany on the CPSP:

Canadian Subs from a South Korean Perspective

Why is Canada’s submarine project such a big deal for South Korea?

philippelagasse.substack.com

Make me even more in favour of Hanwha winning this. However, there are strong strategic reasons in favour of a TKMS win. This is undoubtedly going to be a tough decision for the Carney government, who may feel the relationship with Europe overrides one with SK.

 

[Maxman1]

Having Norway give up their spots also delays them replacing their subs, which are as old as ours.

 

[Underway]

Very interesting analysis by Philippe Legase on the different approaches between SK and Germany on the CPSP:

Canadian Subs from a South Korean Perspective

Why is Canada’s submarine project such a big deal for South Korea?

philippelagasse.substack.com

Make me even more in favour of Hanwha winning this. However, there are strong strategic reasons in favour of a TKMS win. This is undoubtedly going to be a tough decision for the Carney government, who may feel the relationship with Europe overrides one with SK.

The Euro relationship will continue whether we get the KSS or not. But the Korean relationship may be harder to solidify without it.

That being said I think the defining point of the decision is what the industrial benifits look like. DIS will be the template on which this decision will be made.

 

[YZT580]

The Euro relationship will continue whether we get the KSS or not. But the Korean relationship may be harder to solidify without it.

That being said I think the defining point of the decision is what the industrial benifits look like. DIS will be the template on which this decision will be made.

in other words, the offer that gains the liberal party the most potential parliamentary seats.

 

[Czech_pivo]

in other words, the offer that gains the liberal party the most potential parliamentary seats.

This would be zero different if another political party was in power.

 

[Underway]

in other words, the offer that gains the liberal party the most potential parliamentary seats.

Not even close. Where the hell did you read that out of what I wrote?

The DIS is there to give Canada jobs and ensure that we have control over as much of our defence as possible. Any government doing that correctly will get "more votes" but in this case it's a side effect not the design.

 

[YZT580]

Not even close. Where the hell did you read that out of what I wrote?

The DIS is there to give Canada jobs and ensure that we have control over as much of our defence as possible. Any government doing that correctly will get "more votes" but in this case it's a side effect not the design.

comes from countless times I have been disappointed by the choices made, sorry. For decades and including all parties incidentally I have seen the politics side make their choices based upon votes rather than upon the best choice and watched us struggle to make it work. The Iltis comes to mind and the F18 as well. Helicopter choices make the list. Perhaps this time we will be lucky.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Thankfully both platforms will be good, the biggest impact to the CAF is timelines depending on who wins.