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Quebec Election

It’s shaping up to be a Parti Québecois (sovereigntist) victory, but not clear if majority of minority. It might be razor thin on either side of the line.


Minority, with CAQ completely wiped out.

High chance it's dissolved before Trump is out of office for their attempt at a referendum.

EDIT: Their vote share (27%) is also lower than the supposed current support for separation in QC (30%).


 
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Right now, no party has a majority in the Asemblee Nationale. It's 59 seats PQ, with a "no-referendum" bloc made of the Liberals (40) and the Conservatives (19), for another equal 59 seats. The only problem: The balance of power, so to speak, goes to the socialist Quebec-Solidaire party with 9 seats. They are also separatists and will find more affinity with the PQ than the other two parties.

CAQ, with the second largest chunk of the popular vote, has been eradicated from the map. That's waht happens with fragmented voting against a party with a solid base, even though not a majority of voters.
 
Interesting - Quebec elects a bunch of folks who want to split from Canada, no-one bats an eye....Alberta tries to do something like that and everyone's up in arms about how illegal it is to even propose it and anyone who supports it is in cahoots and committing treason.

Or, so it seems from some of the comments out there in the interwebs.
 
Interesting - Quebec elects a bunch of folks who want to split from Canada, no-one bats an eye....Alberta tries to do something like that and everyone's up in arms about how illegal it is to even propose it and anyone who supports it is in cahoots and committing treason.

Or, so it seems from some of the comments out there in the interwebs.

Standby for heavy rolls to port and starboard...
 
Interesting - Quebec elects a bunch of folks who want to split from Canada, no-one bats an eye....Alberta tries to do something like that and everyone's up in arms about how illegal it is to even propose it and anyone who supports it is in cahoots and committing treason.

Or, so it seems from some of the comments out there in the interwebs.
Sovereigntists in Quebec have earned legitimacy by openly running on a sovereignty mandate, being clear about that in every election, and winning seats in the legislature and occasionally forming government.

The Alberta separatists have not done this. There is no party that has run in Alberta politics telling the voters, “we represent an independent Alberta, and voting for us will further this aim”. Instead they essentially infiltrated the UCP, a party whose leader will play footsies with separatists in one moment, but in another will avow that she wants Alberta to remain with Canada.

It’s a lack of candour by Alberta separatists, coupled with a lack of any clear coherent leadership with anything remotely resembling a democratic mandate. If Alberta separatists want to be treated like Quebec separatists, then build a party that openly espouses that position and earn support in elections.

Anyone in any separatist movement who appears to be engaging with foreign actors to advance the breakup of Canada should be treated similarly, if the evidence is there.
 
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The biggest lesson I take from this is proportional representation is becoming a national security issue. Say what you will about CAQ, they arent seppies. They received 13% of the vote but kept no seats and thus, the remain parties are not able to form a government despite well over half the vote going their way. This is the shit that leads to further polarization. MMPR or STV would have led to a far more representative Assemblé Nationale and now we have to deal with PQ nonsense and obstructionism for a half decade.
 
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