Some interesting things that I picked up listening to various discussions on the way to work this morning.
First, a though experiment. Is it possible that the whole referendum was never intended to actually decide if the UK were to pull out of the EU, but rather a response by Cameron to his detractors (at least in part) within the party to put up or shut up, specifically Boris Johnson? It's no secret that there has been animosity between the two going back to their college years. It gives Cameron the ability to walk away from the leadership and lay blame for the fiasco at the feet of the far right detractors in the party.
Second, although the results show a majority of votes for the Leave side, it's not really a strong, clear mandate to leave. 52% to 48%. a swing of roughly 635,000 votes would have resulted in a split vote. It could easily be justified that staying with the status quo is the best course of action, and pursuing changes to the various treaties and agreements is the more desirable option. And this may well be the out that the Brits may use to unring the bell.
Third, the results are not legally binding, so Cameron could just ignore the results at his own peril. However, going back to the first point, he has a scapegoat to hang it on, and I suspect that his quick decision to resign and delaying the trigger on article 50 for the enjoyment of his successor could well be Cameron's intended course of action, without having to say he's going to ignore the will of the people. And the uproar seems to help rather than hinder his cause if that is indeed the plan
With respect to the reaction of the EU political leadership, the aggressive stance they are taking may well backfire. They may in part be emboldened by the results of the bullying they laid on Greece to force the changes that they wanted without consideration of the effect it had on the Greek economy (and I agree something needed to be done, and in this case their course of action may have gotten them what they wanted). But they seem to have forgotten that the UK is not Greece, and this is going to cause pain across the board. Yes, it may be more of a show to warn the weaker states from pulling the same stunt, but it will come back to bite them in the ***.
Ultimately, I can see this ending with a whimper rather than a brawl. A bunch of drunken idiots starting out playing poke chest, and ending with everyone crying, hugging and expressing their love for each other. Rational (for Europeans that is a stretch) heads will prevail, and they will sit down and address the concerns that precipitated the events.