2024 BC Election

[Brad Sallows]

"But when he took questions from reporters Thursday, no one asked about his plan for the ferry system."

And that's the whole problem right there. The people with pulpits decide what the voters ought to be thinking about, and they apparently think voters ought to be thinking about occasional crank comments. These would be the same people with pulpits who repeatedly advance the bold claim that theirs is a necessary profession for informing voters of issues that matter.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Brace, brace, brace...

Baldrey: Final (and some random) thoughts on the 2024 B.C. election​

Get ready for what will be the biggest change in the B.C. legislature in nearly two decades, says Keith Baldrey.
Keith Baldreyabout 3 hours ago

Columnist Keith Baldrey shares some food for thought as B.C. enters the final week of the 2024 provincial election. | Elections BC
Some odds and ends and random thoughts as the election campaign enters its final week:

• No matter which party wins the provincial election on Saturday, Oct. 19, one thing is certain: the makeup of the B.C. legislature will undergo the biggest change — in terms of new faces — in almost 20 years. There will be at least 34 brand new MLAs elected (28 to fill retirements and another six to represent the new additional ridings). That is the most newcomers since the 2005 election, which saw 41 new faces as the NDP recovered from its electoral disaster in the 2001 election.
• In another no-matter-who-wins situation, the makeup of the next provincial cabinet will look significantly different than the current one. If David Eby and the NDP get re-elected into government, Eby will have to replace seven current ministers as well as any who are defeated. If John Rustad and the B.C. Conservatives emerge victorious, he will have to put together a cabinet from a caucus that has no experience in government and precious little in Opposition.
• Advance voting set a one-day record last week when more than 170,000 cast ballots ahead of Election Day, but it’s unclear whether that means voter turnout will be higher than the 53 per cent of the electorate that voted in 2020. I have a hunch, however, that turnout will indeed be higher because the 2020 vote was taken at the height of the pandemic when many people had checked out of doing regular activities, like voting.
• A reminder about voting: you can vote in any riding, not just the one you live in. Just head to an official district electoral office and remember to have some ID (the Elections BC website lists what is considered acceptable personal identification.
• If Rustad and the B.C. Conservatives end up winning, that will put to the lie the notion that the televised leaders’ debate has a big impact on voters. Rustad’s debate performance was universally panned, as his pinched looks and dystopian description of B.C. society were off-putting for many. If he wins, however, he will have the last laugh.
• If the B.C. NDP stays in power, the party will likely be able to point to having what is considered a superior “ground game” when it comes to identifying its voter support and ensuring that group casts ballots. The B.C. Conservatives appear to be at the disadvantage here as it lacks a detailed data base identifying its supporters from previous elections (the party has hired an outside company to assist in finding those would-be supporters).
• Pollsters have recently detected a big shift in voting intentions among demographic age groupings. Younger people under 35 appear to now lean towards the B.C. Conservatives while those over the age of 55 favour the B.C. NDP. This is a complete flip from previous decades of voting patterns.
• Finally, if no party wins a majority this coming weekend that will mean either Independent and/or B.C. Green candidates would hold the balance of power in the legislature. The NDP could remain in government with the backing of enough of those candidates, a scenario the B.C. Liberal government unsuccessfully tried to create after the 2017 election.

In any event, I encourage you to get out and cast your ballot.

Baldrey: Final (and some random) thoughts on the 2024 B.C. election

Get ready for what will be the biggest change in the B.C. legislature in nearly two decades, says Keith Baldrey.

www.biv.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

"But when he took questions from reporters Thursday, no one asked about his plan for the ferry system."

And that's the whole problem right there. The people with pulpits decide what the voters ought to be thinking about, and they apparently think voters ought to be thinking about occasional crank comments. These would be the same people with pulpits who repeatedly advance the bold claim that theirs is a necessary profession for informing voters of issues that matter.

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1845725489161445717

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Looks like the BC Election will be a barn-burner! The National Post is reporting that advance voting is beating the previous record from 2020. More here:

Advance voting in B.C. election smashes record with 28% of electorate already casting votes

Elections BC says 1,001,331 people have voted early. The previous record was about 670,000 advance voters in 2020 during the COVID pandemic.

nationalpost.com

 

[RangerRay]

Looks like the BC Election will be a barn-burner! The National Post is reporting that advance voting is beating the previous record from 2020. More here:

Advance voting in B.C. election smashes record with 28% of electorate already casting votes

Elections BC says 1,001,331 people have voted early. The previous record was about 670,000 advance voters in 2020 during the COVID pandemic.

nationalpost.com

I wonder how many of those are now regretting voting Conservative after all the bozo eruptions came out?

If the more recent polling is accurate, the B.C. Conservatives will need every vote they can get. Many polls, including a whopper Angus Reid poll with a sample size of almost 2400 respondents, show the NDP 5 points or more ahead. Apparently they have huge leads in Metro Vancouver, Surrey and Vancouver Island, where all the seats are.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Whoa... scorcher...

Comment: Just what is the hidden NDP agenda on Indigenous reconciliation?​

I believe any government approach to reconciliation must be crystal clear to voters.


It appears that since 2019, this government has been secretly setting the stage for a seismic shift in governance and land ownership in B.C. Apparently, the Land Act amendments were just the first step in a plan they are purposely not divulging to you before you vote.

The government’s internal and external advisers have publicly questioned the legitimacy of Canada itself and called for an “audacious” “upending of society” to achieve “reconciliation.”

So, let’s bypass Canadian law (which to progressives is “illegitimate” after all) in favour of a non-binding UN declaration and a desire to implement a progressive “land back” ideology in B.C.

The NDP are asking voters for a blank cheque on reconciliation, and it is being sought with no disclosure about their ultimate, potentially unconstitutional, intentions.

I don’t believe I would give my vote to any political party on that basis. Such a move would just encourage more secrecy and deceit about Indigenous reconciliation, and a potentially hugely divisive outcome.

Comment: Just what is the hidden NDP agenda on Indigenous reconciliation?

I believe any government approach to reconciliation must be crystal clear to voters.

www.timescolonist.com

 

[Cloud Cover]

1 poll today has NDP over Cons 46-42

https://twitter.com/x/status/1847302795541774749

Another poll has Cons over NDP 45-40

https://twitter.com/x/status/1847302207747543312

I voted the other day. There was a lineup at the advanced polls.

I think the NDP will squeak by with a narrow popular vote but maybe not a legislative majority for either party.

Next up will be this issue of what Eby has promised to First Nations under the Land Title reform. A lot of people are worried they will lose title and ownership of their property, or that First Nations will be granted power to levy land tax and property tax. That would be the end of tolerating BC for a lot of people.
If Rustad wins, there will be trouble with FN, if Eby wins he’s going to have a near revolution on his hands.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Next up will be this issue of what Eby has promised to First Nations under the Land Title reform. A lot of people are worried they will lose title and ownership of their property, or that First Nations will be granted power to levy land tax and property tax. That would be the end of tolerating BC for a lot of people.
If Rustad wins, there will be trouble with FN, if Eby wins he’s going to have a near revolution on his hands.

Hard to see which way this is going or if it's as bad as the worst case portrayed by its detractors. But if it results in loss of property, it probably falls into the category once described as "abuses and usurpations", irrespective of whether it is part of a "long train". A relative handful of people giving away a lot of other peoples' interests won't end well.

Something between dumb insolence and armed revolution would be enough. Public infrastructure is too expensive, too fragile, too vulnerable, and too difficult to quickly repair for anything more than a campaign of "invisible hand" (meaning: not co-ordinated) sabotage to be needed. Irresponsible angry activism is available to anyone, not just historically oppressed people and their allies.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Hard to see which way this is going or if it's as bad as the worst case portrayed by its detractors. But if it results in loss of property, it probably falls into the category once described as "abuses and usurpations", irrespective of whether it is part of a "long train". A relative handful of people giving away a lot of other peoples' interests won't end well.

Something between dumb insolence and armed revolution would be enough. Public infrastructure is too expensive, too fragile, too vulnerable, and too difficult to quickly repair for anything more than a campaign of "invisible hand" (meaning: not co-ordinated) sabotage to be needed. Irresponsible angry activism is available to anyone, not just historically oppressed people and their allies.

Well hopefully people wait to fight it out in the courts first.
I can’t believe this aspect of property rights are at risk and it was barely even an election topic. Yet the potential for huge backlash and revolt if very very high whatever the outcome.

This is why governments should not be making deals like this behind closed doors.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Well hopefully people wait to fight it out in the courts first.

If it has to be fought in the courts and the government wins, the courts will be discredited in the eyes of the people. That would worsen an already intolerable situation.

I can’t believe this aspect of property rights are at risk and it was barely even an election topic.

For now I'm going with, "This can't be serious; there must be some reasonable explanation." (And it has to be reasonable. Any taint of unreasonable and my counter-unreasonable would be to declaim the NDP to be illegimate for representing the interests of British Columbians.)

 

[Cloud Cover]

Of course any person in opposition to it is a race car driver…

 

[Cloud Cover]

Final model of combined polls.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1847649473691795657

 

[daftandbarmy]

BC politics dramatic? Shocking...

Expect a dramatic end to the B.C. election: expert​

Expect a dramatic end to the B.C. election: expert

It's been a long 30 days for the political parties and voters as B.C. inches closer to finding out who will form the next government.

vancouver.citynews.ca

 

[Brad Sallows]

Final model of combined polls.

NDP-Green coalition an option also, by that forecast as given.

The first Green candidate I heard speak sounded libertarian on several issues, particularly matters of money and civil rights. Aside from the emphasis on environmental policies, he could have been a conservative; he understood the importance of financing and technology to make environmental mitigation happen.

I wonder what happened to that iteration of the Greens.

 

[daftandbarmy]

NDP-Green coalition an option also, by that forecast as given.

The first Green candidate I heard speak sounded libertarian on several issues, particularly matters of money and civil rights. Aside from the emphasis on environmental policies, he could have been a conservative; he understood the importance of financing and technology to make environmental mitigation happen.

I wonder what happened to that iteration of the Greens.

If I were a betting man, which I'm not, I might put some money of the dark horse/ youth vote swinging the balance to the Conservatives...

 

[Cloud Cover]

If it has to be fought in the courts and the government wins, the courts will be discredited in the eyes of the people. That would worsen an already intolerable situation.

For now I'm going with, "This can't be serious; there must be some reasonable explanation." (And it has to be reasonable. Any taint of unreasonable and my counter-unreasonable would be to declaim the NDP to be illegimate for representing the interests of British Columbians.)

A bit more about this:

Comment: Just what is the hidden NDP agenda on Indigenous reconciliation?

I believe any government approach to reconciliation must be crystal clear to voters.

www.timescolonist.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

People who had leases on FN property have been burned before. I don't think there is much appetite for people living under FN governance if that is the NDP plan.

 

[brihard]

Final model of combined polls.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1847649473691795657

That’s a “throw the printed slide deck in the air, shrug, and say who the fuck knows?” projection if I’ve ever seen one.

 

[Cloud Cover]

People who had leases on FN property have been burned before. I don't think there is much appetite for people living under FN governance if that is the NDP plan.

Apparently, in the view of the NDP and FN, it’s a great plan, so stop complaining you rich settlers.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

NDP-Green coalition an option also, by that forecast as given.

The first Green candidate I heard speak sounded libertarian on several issues, particularly matters of money and civil rights. Aside from the emphasis on environmental policies, he could have been a conservative; he understood the importance of financing and technology to make environmental mitigation happen.

I wonder what happened to that iteration of the Greens.

I would say that, if the model above is correct, it will be an NDP-Green coalition government. Eby still gets first shot to try to form a Government. If he can take a viable NDP-Green deal to the LG, he stays Premier, tomorrow.