2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[The Bread Guy]

From out of left field, students across Canada didn't call it, either ....

Students in Canada elected the Conservatives in a mock federal election

Canadian students elected the Conservatives in a mock election that involved thousands of schools across the country.

www.cp24.com

• Student Vote Canada 2025: About page
• "Students elect Conservative Party government in nationwide vote"

 

[dapaterson]

Eighty five percent of ballots were either LPC or CPC, and the Bloc beat the NDP popular vote numbers.

 

[brihard]

Wow. Can’t even say ‘what a result’ because we don’t even really know it yet; but the turnout numbers are gratifying. At least BC and Alberta know their votes mattered this time around. Canada has enjoyed another free and fair election, with the largest number of Canadians ever showing up to vote. That’s pretty great no matter how the seats shake out.
Assuming remaining polls don’t flip four more seats red, they’ll need to govern with at least some reaching out for support. NDP can offer it; I won’t be shocked either if the LOC entice a defection or two in coming months.

NDP got utterly wrecked, yet look poised to still hold the balance of power. Between that and LPC’s own platform, key NDP planks like pharmacare and dental care will probably continue to expand. Despite their seat count, federal NDP appear vindicated: they still hold a better strategic policy position than had they collapsed the government in the winter and formed opposition to a CPC majority government. They were sort of the victims of circumstance this time around. They’ll probably support the LPC for a good while.

The CPC achieved a strong performance votes-wise, but this was the closest we’ve had to a two-horse race in living memory. CPC’s relatively narrow loss, combined with with the obvious utter repudiation and rejection of Poilievre as leader, is the clearest sign they could possibly get that the party needs a strategic change in direction. He blew a 25+ point lead nationally drove his own riding from a 30+ point lead to a loss of his seat. A better leader would have driven the CPC to a commanding victory… They should find one. Bruce Fanjoy deserves congratulations for an absolutely incredible grassroots campaign in Carleton. I’m curious to see if he’ll achieve some prominence within the LPC. He’s earned it for pulling off the Carleton victory.

So, now Carney has a mandate to govern, and his own easily won seat. He has his work cut out for him and I wish him well- we all should. Canada went to the polls, Canada decided, and for better or worse this is our government until it’s not. We’re living in a tougher world, with more adversaries than there were a year ago. Carney will need to leverage every bit of talent he can inside and outside of Parliament and government to steer us through the next few years.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

His support for the convoy, in an Ottawa riding, likely played a part. A lot of people in the ridding held that against him.

I saw a couple of comments saying the same thing. His threat to cut the federal work force may also have been a factor.

And I'm pretty sure I heard him on CBC radio he was still planning on the being the CPC leader. Interesting to see how that plays out.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Question - thoughts on if this outcome, a Minority Govt, will 'force' Carney to follow through on some of the announced (and yet to be announced) major funding initiatives for the CAF?

Looking for a 'Yes/No' answer - and brief explanation of your answer

1) New Subs - fast tracked and 12 or something less and 'slow rolled'
2) 88 F35's
3) Less than 88 F35's and a number of French Rafale's?
4) Kingston replacement class
5) More LAV's from GDLS in London (London is the only real Red area in SW Ontario)
6) New tanks?
7) HIMARS? Yes, No?
8) The River Class timelines speed up as much as possible?
9) Continued push and/or new funding/resources to expand the Recruitment numbers as much as possible
10) Pay raising and new CAF housing/timelines announced?
11) Expanded presence in the Artic in a meaningful way?
12) Greater number of EW airframes, possible 'CDN' based solution
13) Arty replacement/expansion fast tracked?
14) More 'armed' arctic 'warships'?

Wild cards on the Bingo Card

15) Acquiring a 'big honking ship', aka Mistral-like ship(s)
16) Another 1-3 JSS announced
17) Ballistic missile defense agreement with the US
18) New Maritime Helo's to replace the Cyclone, with a significant increase in numbers
19) The arming of CCG ships
20) New Defense pact with the EU

 

[Remius]

I saw a couple of comments saying the same thing. His threat to cut the federal work force may also have been a factor.

I have no doubt. Both parties planned to cut, heck they’ve already started. But a combination of who they prefer doing the cutting, the comparisons to Trump (yes I know, but it’s still a factor), and being vague about how he would do those cuts probably played into it as well.

And I'm pretty sure I heard him on CBC radio he was still planning on the being the CPC leader. Interesting to see how that plays out.

That is going to be something to watch.

He won’t be in the house. He’ll need to appoint someone to lead in the house. Won’t be there for the speech from the throne, won’t be there for the election of the speaker and key votes. Someone else will have the mic in the house. It will be at least six months before a by election is called should someone step down. And that is if the LPC aren't dicks about it.

 

[ModlrMike]

The need to protect votes in atlantic Canada will mean that there will be no COTS naval purchases under this government. Every initiative for new ships will mean that whatever we select will be obsolete before the first hull is in the water.

 

[IKnowNothing]

IMHO and just me, but he has to go. Losing the election is one thing, but losing his seat too... The Honorable man would step down and fade away.

79% voter turnout. Not sure yet, but that could well be a record turnout level of any riding in any election.

I'm of two minds.

On one side- choked away what should of been a layup, lost, lost his seat- GTFO
On the other- he can lay some legitimately impressive claims- his leadership numbers, his fundraising, raising the seat count, voter turnout

On the surface- it's not unreasonable for him to at least wait out the result of a leadership review and a vote at the national convention. In principle, I support the idea of the party maintaining a leader that improves the parties position, giving them a second chance.
But when you factor in the "why" of the loss, as well as how much of an opportunity was just squandered- tough questions for the CPC to answer. How much of the LPC win were votes for Carney vice against Poilievre.


Assuming he stays on, he's at an inflection point, pretty well encapsulated in one soundbite (ironic) broken into two statements of jarringly different sentiment.

We will do our job. Yes, we will do our job to hold the government to account, but first, we congratulate people from all political backgrounds on participating in the democratic process.
And as I said, while we will do our constitutional duty of holding government to account and proposing better alternatives, we will always put Canada first as we stare down tariffs and other irresponsible threats from President (Donald) Trump. Conservatives will work with the prime minister and all parties with the common goal of defending Canada’s interests and getting a new trade deal that puts these tariffs behind us while protecting our sovereignty and the Canadian people.

Which will win the day for PP moving forward? The bold or the underlined. The man wants to be Prime Minister, and to this speech is pretty clearly a hedge while he decides which way to go next.
Does he show some humility, pivot, grow from this, throw Jenni Byrne into the sun, and try to positively influence governance while walking the razor thin line of being mature/serious enough to gain the votes he lacked (or at least reduce the ABPP sentiment) without alienating his base?

Or does he double down, work against the government, and count on Carney falling flat on his face to enable the exact same path to victory he had against Trudeau?


Side note- I found Kenney's commentary pretty impressive in both content and tone. Carried water for the CPC without coming off like a complete toady like Virani, and offered some very sober and balanced insight.

 

[Remius]

Anyone see the rant Jivani had last night against Ford?

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6739918

 

[Infanteer]

Odd that a guy from a party that lost like it did would try and flex on one of the most successful Conservative politicians ever.

 

[Remius]

Odd that a guy from a party that lost like it did would try and flex on one of the most successful Conservative politicians ever.

As well as their past relationship…

This may be a sign of some of the infighting that is to come.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Which will win the day for PP moving forward? The bold or the underlined. The man wants to be Prime Minister, and to this speech is pretty clearly a hedge while he decides which way to go next.
Does he show some humility, pivot, grow from this, throw Jenni Byrne into the sun, and try to positively influence governance while walking the razor thin line of being mature/serious enough to gain the votes he lacked (or at least reduce the ABPP sentiment) without alienating his base?

Or does he double down, work against the government, and count on Carney falling flat on his face to enable the exact same path to victory he had against Trudeau?

Side note- I found Kenney's commentary pretty impressive in both content and tone. Carried water for the CPC without coming off like a complete toady like Virani, and offered some very sober and balanced insight.

Based on what we've seen so far, I can't see him doing anything but doubling down, but could be wrong.

People outside the core have been saying they don't like him personally or his approach for years, so he needs to go IMO, but guess we'll see.

This is a really good chance for them to act like grownups and get some changes on key issues that matter out west, when Canadians gennerally seem to understand the importance of moving away from dependence on the US, so figuring out a way to get Alberta crude and LNG to customers other than the US (which might mean larger exports to China as well as Europe). But they probably won't, giving the BQ and NDP remnants much more actual influence.

They could do horse trading for things like gun restrictions (and focus on illegal guns, especially smuggling of them, and not legal gun owners) as there are a of gun owners (especially rural) getting impacted by some of the stupid restrictions.

@lenaitch Ford said she was fired, vice left voluntarily, so seems like there is bad blood there, and she seems like someone that would hold a grudge.

 

[Fabius]

The LPC took Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville, meaning we now have a dedicated gun control individual whose main political motive is ridding Canada of all firearms ownership.
We will see if she ends up in cabinet or with a public safety nexus.

Either way no matter what the else the LPC doesn’t follow through on, we can likely expect gun control to keep ratcheting up via OICs and regulations, regardless of a parliamentary minority.

 

[dapaterson]

As well as their past relationship…

This may be a sign of some of the infighting that is to come.

The interview Ford did with Politico also shows that friction.

 

[Good2Golf]

Odd that a guy from a party that lost like it did would try and flex on one of the most successful Conservative politicians ever.

Without his law school time friendship with VPOTUS, one would agree it’s odd…but here we are.

I muse/wonder/predict that Trump will apply some level of tariff reduction/waiver to the ‘Heartbeat of America’ Chevy Silverado light-duty and heavy-duty pick ups made just next door to Jivani’s riding to help out his Veep’s best buddy’s electoral neighbor.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Competent but boring?

It seems that Canadians are ready for some of that for a change

Les Leyne: Voters judged Carney best leader to take on Trump​

The buttoned-down banker will never send people into raptures like his predecessor Justin Trudeau did


It was clear Sunday night that Carney knew he was leading mostly because he was judged the best person to take on Trump.

But it won’t be by way of matching bluster. Carney joked at his final stop about the lack of poetry in his speeches and his penchant for econometrics over rhetoric.

He’ll be holding the reins on the body politic now. He’ll be running the numbers and pulling the levers with “elbows up.”

But if this latest incarnation of the Liberal government needs someone to whip it into a frenzy, it will have to rely on someone else.

Les Leyne: Voters judged Carney best leader to take on Trump

The buttoned-down banker will never send people into raptures like his predecessor Justin Trudeau did

www.timescolonist.com

 

[Furniture]

Wow. Can’t even say ‘what a result’ because we don’t even really know it yet; but the turnout numbers are gratifying. At least BC and Alberta know their votes mattered this time around. Canada has enjoyed another free and fair election, with the largest number of Canadians ever showing up to vote. That’s pretty great no matter how the seats shake out.
Assuming remaining polls don’t flip four more seats red, they’ll need to govern with at least some reaching out for support. NDP can offer it; I won’t be shocked either if the LOC entice a defection or two in coming months.

NDP got utterly wrecked, yet look poised to still hold the balance of power. Between that and LPC’s own platform, key NDP planks like pharmacare and dental care will probably continue to expand. Despite their seat count, federal NDP appear vindicated: they still hold a better strategic policy position than had they collapsed the government in the winter and formed opposition to a CPC majority government. They were sort of the victims of circumstance this time around. They’ll probably support the LPC for a good while.

I pretty much completely disagree with your take on the NDP. They are likely done as a meaningful federal party after this election. A vote for NDP is just an inefficient vote for the LPC.

The party would be a lot further ahead if they had a leader with any political acumen at all, and had forced the LPC to the polls back when Trudeau was still PM.

As for how the LPC should govern to hold power, the smart move would be to work with the CPC. Don't give them anything to object to too strongly, and maybe steal some of their support from the center. If the LPC stick to the NDP as their primary dance partner, they may find themselves in the losing side after another few months/years.

The vote distribution between CPC and LPC shows a pretty clear desire for centrist policy from the electorate.

 

[MilEME09]

What a wild outcome,

Regarding Pierre Poilievre’s loss, I feel like the message here sent was "we want your party, but we don't want you"

As of writing this we are 168 liberal, a very strong minority that puts the tiny NDP in place as king maker. Which does prevent having to make a deal with the Bloc, which could have derailed Carneys economic agenda.

 

[IKnowNothing]

As of writing this we are 168 liberal, a very strong minority that puts the tiny NDP in place as king maker. Which does prevent having to make a deal with the Bloc, which could have derailed Carneys economic agenda.

Also only 4 moderate PC defectors away from a majority. I don't think it likely, but if Poilievre holds onto power, retains Byrne, and doesn't shift at all.... is there 4 sitting CPC that are both going to chafe under such a scenario + have a path to reelection- (close enough race that they can win with the Liberal support + their own local personal following? Or 4 that feel strongly enough to risk re-election and sit as negotiating block of independents to provide an alternative to the NDP?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Also only 4 moderate PC defectors away from a majority. I don't think it likely, but if Poilievre holds onto power, retains Byrne, and doesn't shift at all.... is there 4 sitting CPC that are both going to chafe under such a scenario + have a path to reelection- (close enough race that they can with with the Liberal support + their own local personal following? Or 4 that feel strongly enough to risk re-election and sit as negotiating block of independents to provide an alternative to the NDP?

I would think that there are a block of at least a half dozen Conservatives that could be persuaded to cross the floor for a lot cheaper than dealing either with the NDP or worse, the BQ.

Bringing the BQ into government would about finish the Liberals west of Ontario.