8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran

[The Bread Guy]

For the record, CAN PM's statement ...

“This morning, I join Canadians across the country who are shocked and saddened to see reports that a plane crash outside of Tehran, Iran, has claimed the lives of 176 people, including 63 Canadians.

“On behalf of the Government of Canada, Sophie and I offer our deepest condolences to those who have lost family, friends, and loved ones in this tragedy. Our government will continue to work closely with its international partners to ensure that this crash is thoroughly investigated, and that Canadians’ questions are answered. Today, I assure all Canadians that their safety and security is our top priority. We also join with the other countries who are mourning the loss of citizens.

“Minister Champagne has been in touch with the government of Ukraine, and is speaking to relevant authorities and to international partners. Minister Garneau is also working with officials from Transport Canada, and is reaching out to his international counterparts ...

... and CAN foreign affairs minister's statement:

“I was deeply shocked and saddened to learn that, according to preliminary reports, at least 63 Canadians were among the 176 people who were killed when Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 crashed after takeoff yesterday near Tehran, Iran. As more information becomes available, including regarding dual citizens, this number could change. I would like to extend my deepest condolences to those who lost loved ones in this tragic event, including citizens of a number of other countries.

“The situation remains extremely fluid. I have been in touch with my Ukrainian counterpart, and will continue to speak to all relevant authorities. The Government of Canada is committed to working closely with international partners regarding any possible investigation.

“We will continue to keep Canadians informed as the situation evolves ...

 

[The Bread Guy]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand let the seeds of conspiracy theories start to be sown (sources:  here & here) ....

MOAR conspiracy fuel ...

#BREAKING: This image which is now being circulated in #Iranian social media is claimed to be showing seeker of a 9M331 missiles launched by an #IRGC|ASF’s To-M1 SAM system at Flight #PS752 of #Ukraine Intl Airlines resulting explosion of Boeing 737-8KV (UR-PSR) today in #Iran ...

Photo's makin' the rounds of Twitter like crazy ...

Meanwhile, a quick two-liner from the Canadian correspondent for an int'l  wire service ...

The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.  The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Amran Abocar and Chizu Nomiyama)

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Meanwhile, a quick two-liner from the Canadian correspondent for an int'l  wire service ...
Quote
The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.  The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Amran Abocar and Chizu Nomiyama)

Sounds about right

 

[The Bread Guy]

Any folks in the aviation field know who this group is?  They seem to publish articles/blog posts & share information about aviation, airports, ATC and other related issues among a membership alleging to be ~5K.  The URL is registered via GoDaddy to a "Flight Service Bureau" with zero contact details.  The FB page says they're "a group of 5000 pilots, dispatchers, controllers, and ops people working together to share information."  The only "team member" listed on the FB profile is a guy who appears to be a musician in the UK who's posted ZERO posts or pix related to aviation???

They're posting this:

The cause of the crash of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) AUI/PS752 on departure from Tehran is not yet determined, and given political circumstances, may not be clarified beyond reasonable doubt anytime soon.

Purely from the perspective of making a risk assessment for operations to Tehran, and Iran in general, however, we would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary.

Images seen by OPSGROUP, shown below, show obvious projectile holes in the fuselage and a wing section. Whether that projectile was an engine part, or a missile fragment is still conjecture, but in making a decision as to whether to operate to Iran, erring on the side of caution would dictate that you do not, until there is clear information as to the cause.

Obviously, there is also the wider regional risk as indicated through the US FAA Notams issued late Tuesday night. US operators are covered by these clear and specific Notams – do not operate to Iran, or Iraq, or operate in the Persian/Oman Gulf area.

Other operators are free to make their own judgement, but should note that a majority of non-US international carriers have elected to avoid both countries for the time being.

Here's a link to the archived version of this piece in case it disappears.

I'm not certified in the physics of explosions, but I'm going to guess that a plane blowing up just after takeoff full of fuel will be quite likely to generate all kinds of flying metal that'll fly into other bigger pieces of metal before all the big & small pieces settle to the ground.

 

[OldSolduer]

I can hardly wait for the tin foil hat crowd to weigh in.  :facepalm:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Friends of ours in the Persian community have friends that lost people, small world effect. I hope that a team of investigators from countries not implicated in any of the current politics get full access to the site and the information, that's the only way to clear the air of speculation. Hopefully the Iranian Regime is not blind to that.

 

[observor 69]

Thanks!

I do not know what caused this aircraft to crash, but I will note that it is extremely rare for modern commercial airliners to just catch fire and crash all by themselves, giving the crew no time to react or talk to ATC about the problem.

Just sayin...

- slight mod edit to fix quote formatting -

I agree and apparently so does an ex FAA investigator:

"A veteran aviation accident investigator said the flight-tracking data and amateur video were unlike a typical engine failure or fire scenario. While the evidence is still sparse, it’s far more suggestive of a bomb or missile, said Jeffrey Guzzetti, former chief of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s accident investigation division.

“Airplanes don’t just catch fire and have that fire spread like that in such a short period of time, unless there was an intentional act causing that fire and explosion,” Guzzetti said in an interview.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/iran-jet-crash-leaves-mystery-with-probe-curbed-by-tensions

 

[Brad Sallows]

Probability of a "technical malfunction" leading to a catastrophic fire event: a number close to zero.

Probability of the above at the same time Iran is engaged in active hostilities: a heckuva lot lower.

Maybe it will turn out to be true.  Meanwhile, the likely way to bet is otherwise, unless you're deeply invested in hoping for a particular outcome.

 

[tomahawk6]

Newliweds and wedding party onboard the doomed plane.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pictured-two-newlywed-couples-are-identified-among-the-63-canadian-victims-killed-when-their-ukrainian-airlines-jet-crashed-in-iran/ar-BBYLkI4?ocid=spartanntp

 

[The Bread Guy]

I agree and apparently so does an ex FAA investigator:

"A veteran aviation accident investigator said the flight-tracking data and amateur video were unlike a typical engine failure or fire scenario. While the evidence is still sparse, it’s far more suggestive of a bomb or missile, said Jeffrey Guzzetti, former chief of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s accident investigation division.

“Airplanes don’t just catch fire and have that fire spread like that in such a short period of time, unless there was an intentional act causing that fire and explosion,” Guzzetti said in an interview.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/iran-jet-crash-leaves-mystery-with-probe-curbed-by-tensions

Thanks to you & the others for sharing info from less-than-fully-crackpot sources on this - appreciated.

Meanwhile, UKR President's latest - highlights mine ....

Address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy due to the crash of a Ukrainian airline passenger plane in Iran on January 8
9 January 2020 - 06:23

Fellow Ukrainians!

The morning of January 8, 2020 became a dark page in the history of both Ukraine and the world. My sincere condolences to the relatives and friends of eleven dead citizens of Ukraine: Volodymyr Haponenko, Oleksiy Naumkin, Serhiy Khomenko, Kateryna Statnik, Ihor Matkov, Mariya Mykytiuk, Denys Lykhno, Valeriya Ovcharuk, Yuliya Solohub, Olena Malakhova and Olha Kobiuk.

The state will provide their families with all the assistance they need.

January 9 is declared the day of national mourning.

I also extend my condolences to the families of the other victims. It is known that these are citizens of Iran, Canada, Sweden, Afghanistan and the United Kingdom.

Undoubtedly, the priority for Ukraine is to identify the causes of the plane crash. We will surely find out the truth. For this purpose, a thorough and independent investigation will be conducted in accordance with international law.

The commission created by the Civil Aviation Organization of Islamic Republic of Iran will investigate the crash.

At 3:30 am, 45 our specialists arrived in Iran as part of the search and rescue team, including officials of the State Aviation Service, the National Bureau of Air Accidents Investigation of Ukraine, and UIA representatives. In 2 hours, they will depart to the crash site.

We expect that they will all be involved in the work of the commission, including the decoding of the black box records.

If necessary, other experts who have also arrived in Tehran may be included in the commission. These are representatives of the NSDC, the Security Service of Ukraine, the State Emergency Service, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of the Interior, and other state institutions. These are the best specialists in our country with extensive expertise. They will also identify and repatriate the dead Ukrainians.

Today, I will hold a phone conversation with the President of Iran to step up cooperation with the Ukrainian side to establish the truth. I also call on the international community, in particular Canada, to join the investigation into the circumstances of the Ukrainian Boeing-737 crash.

Also, unscheduled and comprehensive safety inspections of UIA flights and other national airlines will be conducted in Ukraine.

Ukrainian citizens are advised to refrain from visiting this region. Ukrainian airlines are banned from flying in the airspace of Iran and Iraq until the causes of the crash are clarified.

Separately, I would like to emphasize that both before and after the departure of the Ukrainian aircraft, planes of international, including European airlines, landed and took off at the Tehran International Airport. Flights were suspended only by the United States of America.

No other country has banned its airlines from flying over Iran and canceled flights before the morning plane crash.

And finally. Our information space is currently filled with numerous theories and speculations about the tragedy. It is clear that we all want to know the truth as soon as possible. But in such cases, speed can interfere with the truth. We need to wait for at least the preliminary report of the investigation commission.

And I ask everyone - especially when Ukraine is in conditions of information warfare - to refrain from manipulation, speculation, conspiracy theories, hasty categorical evaluations and unverified versions.

This is not a topic for hype, likes on social networks, sensations and conspiracy theories. We need patience, endurance and wisdom.

And this dreadful story should teach all of us - every citizen of Ukraine and every world leader - to appreciate human lives.

And to do so before they end so quickly and painfully.

 

[Ping Monkey]

I'm not certain I fully trust this news source, so take it worth a grain of salt...

Ukrainian passenger jet crashed after being hit by Iranian Tor-M1 missile


https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html

Ukrainian passenger jet probably crashed after being hit by a Russian-made Tor-M1 missile over Parand and crashed in the town of Khalaj Abad.


Ukrainian International Airlines flight PS752, en route from Tehran to Kyiv, with 176 people on board has crashed in Iran just minutes after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport, and officials say there is no chance of finding survivors.


A Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 went down just minutes after taking off from Tehran’s airport at 06:12 local time (02:42 GMT). Three Britons and 63 Canadians were among the 168 passengers and nine crew on board the Ukrainian International Airlines flight to Kyiv.


The OSINT experts cataloged and mapped some of the debris of the Ukrainian passenger jet and claim that some debris from Boeing 737-800 shows signs of a missile strike.


Also, Iranian social media released footage of suspicious wreckage that was founded nearly of passenger jet crash place. Suspicious wreckage found at Ukraine plane crash impact site appears to be the nose cone section and control fins of 9M331 surface-to-air missile. It is employed by the Russian-made Tor-M1 mobile air defense system and features a semi-automatic command to line of sight (SACLOS) guidance system. This system currently in service of the Iranian military deployed at a military base near the crash site.


In addition, numerous amateur video appeared to capture the final moments of a Ukrainian passenger jet also testify in favor of the version of the missile attack. An amateur video, run by Iranian news agencies and purportedly of the crashing plane, showed a descending flash in a dark sky. It was accompanied by comments that the aircraft was “on fire” and then a brighter flash as it appears to hit the ground.

Iranian media blamed technical problems and quoted an aviation official who said no emergency had been declared.



In a sign of the potential difficulties facing crash investigators, the head of Iran’s civil aviation organisation was quoted as saying the Ukrainian plane’s “black boxes” – the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder.


Iran’s aviation authority has said it will not hand over flight recorders from the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800, either to the aircraft’s manufacturer or U.S. aviation authorities.


The statement was issued on Wednesday as the leaders of Ukraine and Canada, from which dozens of citizens died, vowed to identify the cause of the crash amid contradictory statements and swirling speculation.


The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, said: “Our government will continue to work closely with its international partners to ensure that … [the crash] is thoroughly investigated, and that Canadians’ questions are answered.”

 

[The Bread Guy]

I'm not certain I fully trust this news source, so take it worth a grain of salt...

Ukrainian passenger jet crashed after being hit by Iranian Tor-M1 missile


https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html

Normally, Defence Blog is reasonably good, but I notice the first Tweet referenced is no longer online (although if you follow the thread, you find a Twitter account linked to an official UKR military news portal asking where the now-missing photo came from).

This guy (latest attached) I know works hard to verify stuff, and even though more such photos seem to be cropping up, they're cropped to tightly to geo-locate, so it's still fuzzy for the moment.

Another guy who's reasonably solid shows more about the plane trying to turn back before hitting the ground (second attachment), possibly adding to the "hit by a missile" theory.

 

[The Bread Guy]

More of the latest from all angles (with thanks to everyone sharing stuff with me) ...

• "Ukrainian experts want to examine UIA plane crash scene in Tehran to find Russian Tor missile system fragments – (Nat'l Secur & Def Council chair) Danilov" (UKR media)
• "PS752 crash: Ukrainian experts examining Boeing wreckage in Iran say fire didn't start from engines" (UKR media)
• "Explanations for air crash in Iran remain elusive but Ukrainians will look at missile theory" (Yahoo News)
• "In Iran Plane Crash, Ukraine Will Investigate Possible Missile Strike" (NY Times)
• "Champagne asks Iran to let Canadian officials in to investigate plane crash" (The Canadian Press, via CTV)
• "Foreign Minister François-Philippe Champagne has held a rare phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, a day after a Ukraine International Airlines plane crashed near Tehran with 63 Canadians on board, Iranian media say.  The details of the call were not known, but Mr. Champagne was expected to press Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to allow Canadian officials to take part in the investigation of what happened to UIA flight 752 ..." (Globe & Mail)

Edited to add the latest from a chat between UKR's and IRN's leadership (via UKR President's info-machine):

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hassan Rouhani.

The Head of State expressed his condolences over the loss of Iranian citizens as a result of the crash of a Ukraine International Airlines plane in Tehran.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the Ukrainian side had already started its work joining the investigation into the causes of the catastrophe.

"I am hopeful for your assistance in conducting a transparent, comprehensive and objective investigation to clarify the circumstances of this tragic event as soon as possible," he said.

The Iranian party assured of full cooperation with a view to holding an objective investigation and finding out the causes of the tragedy. Hassan Rouhani stressed that Iran would provide the Ukrainian expert group with prompt access to all the necessary data.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Latest mix of opinion via Newsweek ...

The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek.

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, a Boeing 737–800 en route from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airpo(r)t to Kyiv's Boryspil International Airport, stopped transmitting data Tuesday just minutes after takeoff and not long after Iran launched missiles at military bases housing U.S. and allied forces in neighboring Iraq. The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, told Newsweek.

One Pentagon and one U.S. senior intelligence official told Newsweek that the Pentagon's assessment is that the incident was accidental. Iran's anti-aircraft were likely active following the country's missile attack, which came in response to the U.S. killing last week of Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, sources said.

U.S. Central Command declined to comment on the matter when contacted by Newsweek. No reply was returned from the National Security Council or State Department ...

 

[brihard]

Tor-M1 is a Radar based system... I’m speculating, but I would guess that guidance radar and/or missile command signals would be pretty easily detectable by various airborne and satellite ELINT assets. I.e., if a missile were launched, American assets would be able to detect the resulting signals from the launcher’s radar, and the commands sent to guide the missiles to target. This would be of considerable evidentiary value.

 

[PuckChaser]

Either it was a deliberate shoot down, or the Iranian Air Defense systems/operators are complete junk so the US doesn't need to worry about penetrating it whenever it wants to slow Iran's nuclear weapon ambition. Thought it was a little fishy that the Iranians immediately stated they wouldn't turn over the black boxes.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Thought it was a little fishy that the Iranians immediately stated they wouldn't turn over the black boxes.

So far (and it may be changing hourly at this point), IRN's said they won't give the black boxes to Boeing or the U.S. government.

Well, if you want the experts on civilian airliners in Iran being shot down in Iranian airspace, you need to bring in the experts: the United States Navy.

<Rodney Dangerfield impression>Tough crowd, tough crowd ...</Rodney Dangerfield impression>

Meanwhile, IRN media say western media are spreading lies * ...

The Minister of Roads and Urban Development said that the rumors about the crash of the Ukrainian-Ukrainian plane near Imam Khomeini Airport were false, saying that the technical defect of the plane caused the fire and its crash ...

... Ali Abedzadeh, the head of (IRN's civil aviation authority), said: "At the same time, there were several domestic and foreign flights flying in Iran at the altitude of 8,000 feet and the subject of the missile attack could not be correct."  He added: "There is complete coordination between all military and civilian sectors in Iran, and at the same time, tens of Iranian and foreign planes were flying over Iran's safe space, and if there were no security, there could be a large number of flights over space." ...

... and UKR's Pres is set to call PMJT:

...  the President of Ukraine holds consultations with international partners. On January 9, Volodymyr Zelenskyy had phone conversations with the Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom and Sweden, Presidents of Iran and Afghanistan. A phone conversation is also scheduled with the Prime Minister of Canada and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The Head of State emphasizes that Ukraine is interested in a transparent and objective investigation ...

* - links to IRN media sources available via PM request because the system won't let me save the post with the links in question.

 

[dapaterson]

Well, if you want the experts on civilian airliners in Iran being shot down in Iranian airspace, you need to bring in the experts: the United States Navy.

 

[gryphonv]

The connection I haven't seen made yet, but wasn't Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 shot down by a very similar system that is being suggested shot down the UKR plane?

Nothing has been confirmed about the plane being shot down, and there probably never will be a unified record of events.

The two incidents seem way too similar for me though.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Either it was a deliberate shoot down, or the Iranian Air Defense systems/operators are complete junk so the US doesn't need to worry about penetrating it whenever it wants to slow Iran's nuclear weapon ambition. Thought it was a little fishy that the Iranians immediately stated they wouldn't turn over the black boxes.

They do have some good equipment by our own assessment: http://natoassociation.ca/irans-developing-military-capabilities-part-iv-air-defences-section-ii/

Although not addressed in the article, and one could get wrapped up in the command and control signalling data which uses strong encryption, that particular missile can also be optically guided at close range (within 23,000 VLOS metres in clear conditions). This is useful under thick ECM situations.  Greece is a user of this system and so we do have good information on its capabilities.

Also, the Dog Ear is the process of being updated in cooperation with Russia.