8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran

[Baz]

Just listened to CBC Radio (1300 hrs) and according to them the Pentagon is saying the Iranians are responsible and that satellites detected two missiles being launched. CBC also said that the Canadian government has been provided with the intelligence.

If it was detected by Sateillite it would have been provided to the NORAD missile warning system, and Canada automatically would get access.

As it looks like it was in the middle of a missile event nearby, it would have taken some time to analyze exactly what was seen.

For context, I was in NORAD CMOC (Cheyenne Nountain Operations Center) Missile Warning from 2002 to 2004.

 

[OldSolduer]

This is exactly my point. During the news conference, much of the media was attempting to get the PM to blame the Americans. This smacks of an all too Canadian tendancy to define ourselves by anti-Americanism and moral relativism.

What ever you think of Trump personally, this event should leave no Canadian under the misapprehension that the US and Iran are moral equivalents. They are not. And now more that 60 of our citizens are dead, as a result of Iranian actions.

Do I "think" that the Iranian regime did this purposefully? I would say no. But what they do next will either mark them as a two-bit, morally bankrupt dictatorship, fit only for our contempt. Or they can admit an error, cooperate with an open investigation, apologize and make restitution. Their choice.

Make no mistake. We are not friends with Iran. I believe they still view us as "lesser infidels" with our neighbour being the "Great Satan". Whatever they say or do I would not trust that regime ever.

I don't think it was a deliberate shoot down. More likely some low level AD guy got an itchy trigger finger.

 

[Kirkhill]

I don't think it was a deliberate shoot down. More likely some low level AD guy got an itchy trigger finger.

Or somebody called "Weapons Free" and took the man out of the loop?  Russian gizmos?

 

[FJAG]

The Iranians have the black boxes but they wont release them because it might show the aircraft was hit by a missile.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-downed-ukrainian-jetliner-us-canadian-officials-say/ar-BBYLJo2?ocid=spartanntp

From Trudeau's news conference, the indication is that Iran will allow Ukrainian investigator's access to them They just won't turn them over to Boeing or the US although there have been some very recent reports on CNN and that Iran is asking for assistance from Boeing re the boxes.

I'm just speculating here (like most folks), but I wouldn't be surprised at all if within the next 48 hours Iran admits that there was a missile mistakenly fired and blames it on the increased tensions with the US.

:cheers:

 

[FJAG]

Or somebody called "Weapons Free" and took the man out of the loop?  Russian gizmos?

Considering that they gave six hours warning of their missile launch and were expecting immediate US retaliation by aircraft, it is completely logical to assume that their AD resources were on a very heightened alert. Similarly, I do not doubt that they would have had AD resources covering a vital point such as Tehran Airport.

:cheers:

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Considering that they gave six hours warning of their missile launch and were expecting immediate US retaliation by aircraft, it is completely logical to assume that their AD resources were on a very heightened alert. Similarly, I do not doubt that they would have had AD resources covering a vital point such as Tehran Airport.

:cheers:

In instances such as that, morally responsible governments close their airspace to civil aviation, in order to prevent any possibility of a "mistake".

Morally corrupt regimes, such as Iran's, care nothing of human life, so it does not enter their calculus.

 

[Remius]

In instances such as that, morally responsible governments close their airspace to civil aviation, in order to prevent any possibility of a "mistake".

Morally corrupt regimes, such as Iran's, care nothing of human life, so it does not enter their calculus.

True.

The other fact is that 88 iranian citizens died along with everyone else.  Plus a majority likely had family ties in Iran.  There will be pressure from within to get to the truth. 

 

[OldSolduer]

True.

The other fact is that 88 iranian citizens died along with everyone else.  Plus a majority likely had family ties in Iran.  There will be pressure from within to get to the truth.

If my memory serves me correctly, it is not above dictatorial regimes to sacrifice a few of the innocents to serve a higher purpose.
I recall the Balkans and rumours about one faction offing a few of their own and blame it on the other side.

 

[Good2Golf]

If my memory serves me correctly, it is not above dictatorial any regimes to sacrifice a few of the innocents to serve a higher purpose.

Indeed.  Iran Air 655?

In the fog of war, sometimes s*** happens...


Regards
G2G

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Indeed.  Iran Air 655?

In the fog of war, sometimes s*** happens...


Regards
G2G

Not a great anology. That happened in international airspace. If the USN had shot a helo off the deck of a neighbouring warship in a TG= better anology.

The Iranians had all the keys to prevent this. When they did their "kabuki theatre" missile strike into Iraq, they should have closed their airspace to civil aviation for about 24hrs. It is up to the Iranians to effectively use airspace control measures before lobbing around high speed SAMs. That they failed to do so shows either reckless disregard or unbelievable incompetence.

 

[The Bread Guy]

This from Russian state media ...

... The Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB) said in a statement that it was accepting Tehran's invitation and making arrangements to travel to the site of the jet crash in Iran.

    "The TSB has been invited by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau of the Islamic Republic of Iran to attend the accident site. We have accepted this invitation and we are making arrangements to travel to the site. The TSB will be working with other groups and organizations already on site", the agency said in a statement on Thursday ...

 

[Good2Golf]

Not a great anology. That happened in international airspace. If the USN had shot a helo off the deck of a neighbouring warship in a TG= better anology.

Not intended as a direct analogy, but speaking to things going through the air and the fog of war.  AD-accessible/covered airspace being ones own, or an adversary’s, innocents get injured/killed.

Adjust the elements as one may wish,

Victims - select from: innocents/own people/combatants/etc.
Region - select from: adversary, own territory, independent location, etc.
Agent - select from: state actor, non-state actor, other, etc.

The outrage (or lack thereof) is related to the lens one looks through, no?  IA655...oopsies, sorry, our bad.  PS752...meant to hurt Giant Satan indirectly via Little Satan? ???

Just trying to apply some critical thought to potential courses of what happened, and some
Level of incompetence could have been part of it...potentially.

:2c:

Regards
G2G

 

[tomahawk6]

Much of the engines and fuselage would show shrapnel damage unless the Iranians have it hidden. Iran would be wise to admit the error and offer a payment to the families. I would expect a number of civil carriers to withdraw flying in and out of Tehran.

 

[CBH99]

I agree with every single thing said above from all posters. 

-  Most likely unintentional. 

-  Absolutely irresponsible to not close the airspace to civil aviation, especially considering the Iranians gave the installations a 6 hour notice.

-  Everybody is responsible for their own ordnance. 


They should own it.  Admit it happened, admit the mistake.  Allow investigators in to do their job - it would help their image in the international community big time.




Unfortunately, T6, I think someone in Iran was way ahead of you in regards to keeping the evidence hidden. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1


Shame - when they invited Transport Canada investigators to come over and seemed to be seeking help with the black boxes, I had my hopes up and gave them credit.  I was too soon.


**Trying to find photos but there doesn't seem to be many available yet.  If you look at the crash site between yesterday and today, there's basically nothing there.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Kind of an aside, but if the seeker head is intact, do the explosives go outward  in a circle behind it?  Always kind of assumed the tip actually had the explosives and blew out in a cone, but I guess when it's going that fast if the charge blows out perpendicular to the missile it will still form a cone shaped cloud of shrapnel to ruin any plane's day.

According to these guys ...

... The warhead is located midway on the missile, meaning that its nose may not be destroyed in an explosion ...

See attached.

Some of the latest ...

• "Iran Invites NTSB, Boeing to Participate in Ukrainian Plane Crash Investigation" (Voice of America)
• "Iranian officials still deny Ukraine flight was shot down by missile" (Yahoo News)
• "A Russian state propagandist is casting blame on Ukraine for the recent plane crash near Tehran — echoing the disinformation that emerged after the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014 ..." (Buzz Feed)
• "President of Ukraine: We urge all international partners to provide information on the air crash in Iran to the investigation commission" (UKR Pres info-machine)
• "In a phone conversation with Justin Trudeau, Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed condolences over the loss of Canadian citizens in a plane crash in Iran" (UKR Pres info-machine)
• "The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine has asked Canada to submit available information relating to the crash of a UIA passenger plane in Iran, the press service of the department has reported.  "The Office of the Prosecutor General has called on Canada to provide information available to the Canadian side that may facilitate the criminal investigation into the UIA plane crash," reads the statement ..." (UKR media)

 

[Jarnhamar]

Iran is using bulldozers at the Ukrainian plane crash site,

So what are we going to do about it?

 

[brihard]

So what are we going to do about it?

Blow it up and built a FOB on it?

 

[NavyShooter]

I found this on Facebook this morning.

A rather...detailed look at the situation that seems to make sense.

NS

 

[NavyShooter]

OK...I have 6 more photos to go with this and the forum won't let me post them for some reason.

 

[mariomike]

On the Homefront,

Global News

Fight breaks out at Toronto vigil for Iran plane crash victims
https://globalnews.ca/news/6391384/iran-plane-crash-vigil-north-york-civic-centre/

Two vigils were occurring at the time of the altercation and it’s estimated hundreds were in attendance at both events.

One was hosted by independent Iranian-Canadian citizens in Mel Lastman Square and the other was hosted by the Iranian Canadian Congress inside the North York Civic Centre.

Warning: Violent content. Discretion advised