It's all about Ignatieff— but it shouldn't be
JEFFREY SIMPSON
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Now that the Canadian media have all but anointed Michael Ignatieff as the next Liberal leader, what will the other candidates do for attention?
In a two-week stretch just ended, Mr. Ignatieff got full coverage of his environment comments (in contrast to former environment minister Stéphane Dion's statement this week that was largely ignored), a seven-page profile in this paper, a full-page interview in the Toronto Star and four pages in Maclean's to outline his “vision” for Canada.
The media's laying on of the hands will not elect Mr. Ignatieff, but it will certainly help. Details of what's written aside, the avalanche of coverage, contrasted with the absence of comparable attention for other candidates, creates the impression of an unstoppable campaign that wavering Liberals would be wise to join lest they be stuck with a loser.
There's no doubt that the Ignatieff campaign enjoys impressive support all across the Liberal spectrum. Take Yukon, for example. There, MP Larry Bagnell recently endorsed Mr. Ignatieff. Larry Who? Well, Mr. Bagnell is hugely popular in Yukon, which, because of the aboriginal and northern allotment for delegates, has more than the usual 12 delegates for each riding.
Mr. Bagnell will deliver most of Yukon's votes to Mr. Ignatieff, who, by virtue of being out of Canada for 30 years, knows Yukon less by first-hand experience than other candidates who, as former ministers or a provincial premier, will have visited the place.
No matter. A Larry Bagnell in Yukon or a Doug Richardson in Saskatchewan or a Denis Coderre in Quebec or a Senator David Smith in Ontario will get the organizational work done and the delegates elected for Mr. Ignatieff because they think, presumably as the media do, that he is the “new, new thing” in Canadian politics — interesting, arresting and alluring.
Of course, the Ignatieff campaign is not unstoppable when the candidate goes off script.
This week, Mr. Ignatieff told the Toronto Star that he wasn't committed to running in the next election if he failed to win the leadership. The questions he answered were straightforward, not hypothetical as he insisted the next day when he changed his answer to: I'm running regardless.
His first answer, to the Star, was the one he had given publicly before. There was nothing new in it. That had been his script. It presumably represented his genuine intentions: to take stock after the leadership convention and then decide his future career.
Which, of course, would lead Liberals to ask: Is this race about Michael Ignatieff or is it about the Liberal Party? After all, while Mr. Dion (for example) was taking ferocious abuse in Quebec for defending federalism as a Liberal cabinet minister, Mr. Ignatieff was lecturing at Harvard University.
Mr. Dion could have returned to teaching, saying who needs this: cartoonists making him look like a rat, separatists calling him a traitor, former academic colleagues excoriating him. Instead, he fought the good fight. He didn't say, well, I'll see how things turn out, then ruminate on my future. Even when stupidly spurned as a Chrétien minister by the Martinites, Mr. Dion kept working and was eventually rewarded with re-entry into the cabinet.
Mr. Dion is not the “new, new thing.” The media presumably think of him as someone the country knows, which is a complete media conceit. If we know anything about public opinion, it is that the vast majority of people have somewhere between zero and impressionistic information about all federal politicians except the prime minister.
A poll taken three years after the Mulroney government was elected in 1984 found that barely a third of the respondents could even name the finance minister (Michael Wilson). Most of the other Mulroney ministers were recognized, if they were at all, by fewer than 20 per cent of the respondents.
The disproportionate attention paid to Mr. Ignatieff is presumably rationalized because he is less well known. That presumption assumes, quite wrongly, that people know the other candidates.
Indeed, anyone who reads serious publications probably knows a great deal more about Mr. Ignatieff than any of the other candidates, including his reflections on the meaning of history, the relationship of individuals to society, the definitional pulls of ethnicity and language, and the reasons why invading Iraq were so compelling.
Gerard Kennedy was a minister in Ontario. Who had ever heard of him outside the province, let alone inside? Bob Rae hasn't been in politics for years. Who knows what he thinks about today?
True, Mr. Dion has been around for years, but was working largely in federal-provincial affairs and environment portfolios. Who knows what he thinks about managing an economy or tackling aboriginal problems? Is Maclean's going to give him — or the others — four pages to outline his “vision” and put his face on the cover of the magazine? Is my own esteemed newspaper going to offer a seven-page profile about Mr. Dion's pre-political career — he wrote an awful lot as an academic — or that of Mr. Rae to match Michael Valpy's outstanding profile of Mr. Ignatieff?
Maybe these things will happen in a race that has already gone on too long and will not conclude for another three months. And maybe if these things happen, Mr. Ignatieff will still win, and rightly so, because when every candidate's ideas and persona have been exposed and parsed, he will have deserved his victory as the best candidate on offer.
We are yet a long way from that state of affairs.
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