CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Brad Sallows]

That's funny because (classic) liberalism is actually modern conservatism. So yes, words change their definitions along with people. Especially political philosophies as they evolve over time.

Certainly. But customary usage can freeze a definition as well as alter it. It's helpful to not have to agree on new definitions every few years, so it's worthwhile rejecting attempts to change them. This is particularly so when the effort is rather transparently an attempt to pollute a term - make it pejorative - by attaching novel and undesirable characteristics to it.

 

[dapaterson]

His address last night all but admitted that his "emergency" rationale for imposing tariffs was not legit.

Looking forward to legal challenges.

 

[brihard]

His address last night all but admitted that his "emergency" rationale for imposing tariffs was not legit.

Looking forward to legal challenges.

If the desire is to push us back to renegotiate a comprehensive trade agreement, maybe showing us the current one isn’t worth the paper it’s written on isn’t the way to go about it. Refusal to honour their own agreements is damaging to America’s reputation as a reliable trade partner.

 

[lenaitch]

The best time to plant a tree was ten years ago. The second best time is right now. We have an opportunity to begin a series of national mega-projects, never again will Canada be so united and craving economic nationalism. Strike while the iron is hot so to speak.

Agree, but they're not going to be paid for by the billions and billions we get as tariff income.

 

[lenaitch]

GM has no manufacturing left in Canada

Their website says they do.

Site Maintenance

 

[lenaitch]

This is a legitimate question.

My counter. What can we do today?

A proposal.

.....

View attachment 91708View attachment 91706View attachment 91709

Sitrep - a functional rail line exists to a functional port

Oil is being shipped to Churchill Marine Oil Terminal by rail and is being distributed to the north by water.

Churchill Marine Tank Farm — Arctic Gateway Group

www.arcticgateway.com

Zinc concentrate (bulk ore) was shipped from Churchill in August 2024. So the wharfage is functional.

Canada Boosts Hudson Bay Trade Route: Churchill, Manitoba to Become New Key Arctic Shipping Hub - Travel And Tour World

Moscow plans to attract over 50 million annual tourists by 2030, with a surge in Emirati visitors and a strategic focus on boosting Middle East and global travel connections.

www.travelandtourworld.com

The article actually gives a comprehensive sit rep currently.

....

With a working railway and a working wharf then we could start shipping oil from Churchill tomorrow.

View attachment 91710

We could also be shipping Compressed Natural Gas until we can get a Liquefied Natural Gas facility up and running.




View attachment 91712



The Iso-Tank in the bottom right hand corner is particularly interesting as that could be loaded on a train, railroaded to Churchill then it could be evacuated into CNG tanker or loaded onto a container vessel.

All of this until we could convince someone to tie up a floating LNG facility at the dock.

In the meantime we could start chartering Baltic Sea tankers. And possibly shipping in bulk.

CNG carrier - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

• Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan can import CNG from Russia and Papua New Guinea
• India can import CNG from Qatar, Iran, Yamen, Oman, Myanmar, Israel (via Red Sea) and Mozambique
• Israel can export CNG to all countries having coast line with Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea including Western Europe and India.
• Russia can export CNG to Western Europe via Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea.
• United States can export CNG to Western Europe, Cuba, Greenland and Iceland.
• Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan can export CNG to Western Europe via Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Caspian Sea

I agree that it is a foundation to start from, but:

- the rebuilding of the rail line is a multi-year project. I don't know what weight capacity they are rebuilding the line to. A unit train of heavy crude is, well, heavy. Building a roadbed on muskeg is tricky, especially if you want to transport dangerous goods.

- according to this, the tank farm is being, or has been, de-commissoned.

https://www.manitoba.ca/sd/waste_management/contaminated_sites/registry/20344/reports/2019_04_22_phase3_decom_rpt.pdf

- it appears from this that the current 'farm' is quite small.

Churchill Marine Tank Farm — Arctic Gateway Group

www.arcticgateway.com

- there are currently no natural gas transfer facilities, liquified or otherwise, at the port.

All a good start, but I continue to argue that we can't do any of the good revenue-generating-bypass-US-markets-diversify-our-economy stuff tomorrow.

 

[MilEME09]

Suddenly a wild Jason Kenny out of his winter hibernation

https://twitter.com/x/status/1897362606400114876

 

[brihard]

Suddenly a wild Jason Kenny out of his winter hibernation

https://twitter.com/x/status/1897362606400114876

He’s been posting a lot these past few days. I think he’s trying to get his name back out there. Given the possibility (certainly not probability) that LPC could eke out another win, he may want to be on people’s minds in the event the CPC runs a leadership process.

 

[Rd651]

Long time creeper on this site, which i love by the way...my 2 cents:

Trump has effectively manipulated the stock market with his BS tariffs, twice now..
Him and all his family and friends made some big bank over the last 2 days...that is his agenda not trade imballance / fentinal, border crap, that is just the excuse to act on these tariffs, breaking the trade agreements he negotiated during his first term....meanwhile everyone gets Fu**ed except the 1 %...my 2 cents....

 

[suffolkowner]

Long time creeper on this site, which i love by the way...my 2 cents:

Trump has effectively manipulated the stock market with his BS tariffs, twice now..
Him and all his family and friends made some big bank over the last 2 days...that is his agenda not trade imballance / fentinal, border crap, that is just the excuse to act on these tariffs, breaking the trade agreements he negotiated during his first term....meanwhile everyone gets Fu**ed except the 1 %...my 2 cents....

the thought crossed my mind too

 

[Underway]

Long time creeper on this site, which i love by the way...my 2 cents:

Trump has effectively manipulated the stock market with his BS tariffs, twice now..
Him and all his family and friends made some big bank over the last 2 days...that is his agenda not trade imballance / fentinal, border crap, that is just the excuse to act on these tariffs, breaking the trade agreements he negotiated during his first term....meanwhile everyone gets Fu**ed except the 1 %...my 2 cents....

Thanks for participating in the discussion. We love it when lurkers come out every once in a while!

 

[OldSolduer]

Think they showed him a video of the JFK assassination from a never before seen angle?

Grassy knoll view?

 

[Underway]

I agree that it is a foundation to start from, but:

- the rebuilding of the rail line is a multi-year project. I don't know what weight capacity they are rebuilding the line to. A unit train of heavy crude is, well, heavy. Building a roadbed on muskeg is tricky, especially if you want to transport dangerous goods.

- according to this, the tank farm is being, or has been, de-commissoned.

https://www.manitoba.ca/sd/waste_management/contaminated_sites/registry/20344/reports/2019_04_22_phase3_decom_rpt.pdf

- it appears from this that the current 'farm' is quite small.

Churchill Marine Tank Farm — Arctic Gateway Group

www.arcticgateway.com

- there are currently no natural gas transfer facilities, liquified or otherwise, at the port.

All a good start, but I continue to argue that we can't do any of the good revenue-generating-bypass-US-markets-diversify-our-economy stuff tomorrow.

So there is a bit of a panic, and people are throwing ideas out there to see what sticks. Churchill if it was economically viable would already be a working port. But its not. So big infrastructure needs to be both easy wins and harder goals. My largest concern is the hollowing out of our manufacturing. If we become just hewers of wood and drawers of water we're kinda screwed. So we need to look at things like digital services, AI, productivity improving infrastructure, cyber security. Those are little things and some of them are easy wins overall.

I think we need to look to Sweden for a little bit of inspiration as well, build our own military equipment for example despite the costs being probably higher than buying foregin. At least we'll have control over our own equipment. We've basically failed to create big companies in Canada, and to keep the ones we do have. That requires a good taxation and red tape regime. Over time governments will change and I hope that we aren't leveled by a random Trump temper tantrum.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Their website says they do.

Site Maintenance

CAMI in Ingersoll is a joint venture, not a full GM and I thought Oshawa was closed but I guess it’s still open.

 

[Kirkhill]

I agree that it is a foundation to start from, but:

- the rebuilding of the rail line is a multi-year project. I don't know what weight capacity they are rebuilding the line to. A unit train of heavy crude is, well, heavy. Building a roadbed on muskeg is tricky, especially if you want to transport dangerous goods.

- according to this, the tank farm is being, or has been, de-commissoned.

https://www.manitoba.ca/sd/waste_management/contaminated_sites/registry/20344/reports/2019_04_22_phase3_decom_rpt.pdf

- it appears from this that the current 'farm' is quite small.

Churchill Marine Tank Farm — Arctic Gateway Group

www.arcticgateway.com

- there are currently no natural gas transfer facilities, liquified or otherwise, at the port.

All a good start, but I continue to argue that we can't do any of the good revenue-generating-bypass-US-markets-diversify-our-economy stuff tomorrow.

I agree to a point. I think even a trickle going out serves to make a point. It attracts attention. Demonstrates capability and also willingness.

Crunching some numbers for fun got me loading up Tempera once a week with 131,000 m3 of oil. 7 days later she would unload at Bergen or Peterhead.

To fill her would require ten trains of 100 T117 cars.

So three vessels could maintain a steady pace to Europe during the shipping season.

If the trains ran all year to a storage farm that would handle about 17% of Alberta's current output.


...

 

[Kirkhill]

Wrt gas. Compressed Natural Gas in Iso Tanks needs cranes and container ships.

Or they can be emptied just by opening the valve. A compressor pump system is also fairly cheap when compared to the price of an LNG plant.

...

But I am no expert. I just do arithmetic.

 

[HavokFour]

Suddenly a wild Jason Kenny out of his winter hibernation

https://twitter.com/x/status/1897362606400114876

I appears his orangeness has just been informed of this as well. Another for the blink counter.

Trump Weighs Agriculture Carveouts to Canada, Mexico Tariffs

President Donald Trump is considering exempting certain agricultural products from tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, the latest move by the administration on Wednesday to offer relief to certain sectors from the sweeping new import taxes.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

And we have started the process of getting a new reactor(s), and a couple other things. An SMR would be ideal for a more permanent presence up north. Now we just need the Provinces to agree to build that East-West pipe.

Canada Invests in the Next Generation of Canadian-Made, Clean, Affordable Nuclear Energy - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, announced that the Government of Canada has entered into a preliminary agreement with AtkinsRéalis to support the development and modernization of a new, large-scale, natural uranium–fuelled Canadian deuterium...

www.canada.ca

Edit: Speak of the devil, we have movement.

As tariffs bite, governments move toward deal on interprovincial trade

Agreement marks ‘unprecedented progress’ on reducing internal trade barriers, Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand says

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Kirkhill]

So there is a bit of a panic, and people are throwing ideas out there to see what sticks. Churchill if it was economically viable would already be a working port. But its not. So big infrastructure needs to be both easy wins and harder goals. My largest concern is the hollowing out of our manufacturing. If we become just hewers of wood and drawers of water we're kinda screwed. So we need to look at things like digital services, AI, productivity improving infrastructure, cyber security. Those are little things and some of them are easy wins overall.

I think we need to look to Sweden for a little bit of inspiration as well, build our own military equipment for example despite the costs being probably higher than buying foregin. At least we'll have control over our own equipment. We've basically failed to create big companies in Canada, and to keep the ones we do have. That requires a good taxation and red tape regime. Over time governments will change and I hope that we aren't leveled by a random Trump temper tantrum.

Churchill if it was economically viable would already be a working port. But its not.

I have to disagree.

Montreal is Canada's original company town. It was founded at the pinch point of La Chine and the confluences of the Ottawa, the St-Laurent and the Richelieu.

York Factory was founded by a couple of French Huguenots who got fed up paying the Montreal tariffs on their furs. They didn't like the taxes the French King was charging on their work so Radisson and Groseilliers went to fellow French Huguenots taking refuge in London and convinced them to finance a new venture under the protection of the King of Scots and England.

York Factory, and the other HBC forts were built expressly to bypass Montreal and deny France the tax revenues on the fur trade. The French objected.

1763 the French lost and a new entity entered the picture. A bunch of greedy Scots allied with the French and established the Northwest Company operating out of Montreal, giving birth to the Golden Square Mile, home of the Trudeaus and McGills among others. That colony prospered and raised the Canadian banks, railways and shipping lines.

1867 and John A MacDonald knits the country together with a railway financed out of Montreal. When he "bought" Ruperts Land he directed the flow of trade through Montreal, to the benefit of the Golden Square Mile and the St Lawrence Valley. That was his National Policy.

The HBC ports competed with that flow. And were allowed to atrophy.

This was to the detriment of the Western Provinces. In the absence of alternative markets they remain what they were intended to be: colonies of Montreal. They would be the hewers of wood and drawers of water, supplying food and raw materials for the smiths and mechanics of the St Lawrence.

The HBC ports are perfectly viable ports, given cargoes of appropriate values. They were viable for the best part of 300 years. They can be viable again. Especially with the advances in technology currently available.

...

I wouldn't put down the hewers of wood and drawers of water. They pay a lot of your bills. And they can make you a lot of profits in the future which you can invest in other fields of endeavour. And fund a decent security service to protect our assets.

 

[HavokFour]

First Ministers’ statement on eliminating internal trade barriers in Canada​

“In the face of the United States’ unjustified decision to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, Canada’s First Ministers recognize this is a pivotal moment for Canada to take bold and united action. We must increase our economic resilience, reduce dependence on one market, and strengthen our domestic economy for the benefit of Canadian workers and businesses now and in the future. One key step is to make it easier for Canadians to do business with each other from coast to coast to coast.

“At their meeting yesterday, the Prime Minister and Canada’s premiers agreed to build on the foundational work of the Committee on Internal Trade and strengthen Canada’s domestic economy by reducing barriers to internal trade and labour mobility across the country. All First Ministers agreed that now is the time to take meaningful action to further liberalize and support the Canadian market so that goods, services, and workers can move freely.

“First Ministers agreed that certified professionals with credentials in one jurisdiction should be able to work anywhere in Canada. Whether relocating for family reasons or pursuing job opportunities elsewhere, workers should be free to do what they are trained to do and contribute to the Canadian economy. Due to its linguistic specificity among other things, Quebec, while adhering to the overall goal of increasing workforce mobility, intends to implement measures for credentials recognition when it deems it in line with its own objectives.

“The Prime Minister and premiers directed the Committee on Internal Trade to work with the Forum of Labour Market Ministers, to develop a service standard of 30 days or better to get people working faster, and provide a plan for Canada-wide credential recognition, while taking into account jurisdictional specificities such as language provisions, by June 1, 2025.

“First Ministers also agreed that now is the time to choose Canada. We must ensure that all Canadians have access to Canadian-made goods, no matter where they are in the country. The Prime Minister and premiers applauded Internal Trade Ministers for undertaking a review of exceptions under the Canadian Free Trade Agreement by June 1, 2025, in addition to those removed by governments in recent years, and for their efforts to reconcile and reduce regulatory differences between jurisdictions, particularly through the negotiation of mutual recognition requirements in the trucking sector and the movement of consumer goods. Most First Ministers also committed to allowing direct-to-consumer alcohol sales for Canadian products. These efforts will benefit Canadian businesses and citizens by opening new domestic markets, reducing the cost of consumer goods at a time when U.S. tariffs will impact affordability.

“First Ministers recognized that removing these barriers will make it easier for businesses in Canada to access new revenue and market opportunities here at home, while attracting greater foreign investment and trade.

“The Prime Minister and the premiers agreed to continue working together as they implement the shared plan to strengthen internal trade in Canada. Team Canada stands firm, united, resolute, and ready to face this challenge, and any others that come our way.”

First Ministers’ statement on eliminating internal trade barriers in Canada

“In the face of the United States’ unjustified decision to impose tariffs on Canadian goods, Canada’s First Ministers recognize this is a pivotal moment for Canada to take bold and united action.

www.pm.gc.ca