CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Brad Sallows]

Points have validity, but respond to the question as what temporal frame should we be considering the relationship of trust? So back to Truman/Roosevelt times, and see Trump as a small blip of less than ~10%, so say…let’s be 90% confident that things will stabilize after Trump (be that 2028 or…2032? ). Will Putin/Russia’s influence end with Trump? The circle of previous trust will be fully re-established? So a metaphoric pillow-biting is the best COA?

Slices of time isn't the way to do it. Maybe try plotting the positions of all the presidents and presidential candidates and senior Congress positions (majority/minority leader, etc)? I suspect you'll get closer to 99%.

Turning everything on its head because of one outlier is pretty much self-obviously unwise.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Who would have thought the Manitoba NDP would be jumping in on the patriotism deepend.

It's kinda low hanging fruit. I notice this over night brand of Patriotism turns into "take away their citizenship!" pretty fast.

 

[JLB50]

Good luck with that.

He's grasping at straws - the stock market bitch slapped him over the last 2-3 days, the industry leaders have told him, in no uncertain words, that he's an idiot.

He needs to come across as the 'winner' in this no matter what or his flaccid ego will shrink even further. If Trudeau has a brain and is actually advised properly, he'll throw some more money/resources at the border and talk about some more drone coverage along the border and give Trump what he needs.

Otherwise, back to the trenches I say.

Trudeau could throw billions more dollars into the border “problem” and put 10 thousand of our military on border patrol, and still that wouldn’t be enough. It’s a non-issue and Trump knows it. As always he has taken a basic truth, spun it into a great exaggeration and followed it up with embellishment after embellishment.

 

[Kirkhill]

Last I looked, the Bank of Canada doesn't make pipe. I don't know the industry but I'm not sure we have a domestic large diameter pipe manufacturing capability. Even if we do, projects of this scale, such as building long distance pipelines and ports, have a long lead time for surveying, engineering, land acquisition, construction and on and on. Even if every government regulation was dropped tomorrow and we were able to bulldoze through everyone's backyard with impunity, they still couldn't be built fast enough to solve our current problems.

I'm not saying they are necessarily a bad idea from a national interest perspective, quite the opposite.

How's the CSC construction coming along? Can we have one in the water next year?

This is a legitimate question.

My counter. What can we do today?

A proposal.

.....



Sitrep - a functional rail line exists to a functional port

Oil is being shipped to Churchill Marine Oil Terminal by rail and is being distributed to the north by water.

Churchill Marine Tank Farm — Arctic Gateway Group

www.arcticgateway.com

Zinc concentrate (bulk ore) was shipped from Churchill in August 2024. So the wharfage is functional.

In August 2024, AGG and Hudbay Minerals Inc. successfully exported 10,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate from Churchill, demonstrating the port’s potential as a hub for northern mineral exports.

Canada Boosts Hudson Bay Trade Route: Churchill, Manitoba to Become New Key Arctic Shipping Hub - Travel And Tour World

Moscow plans to attract over 50 million annual tourists by 2030, with a surge in Emirati visitors and a strategic focus on boosting Middle East and global travel connections.

www.travelandtourworld.com

The article actually gives a comprehensive sit rep currently.

....

With a working railway and a working wharf then we could start shipping oil from Churchill tomorrow.



We could also be shipping Compressed Natural Gas until we can get a Liquefied Natural Gas facility up and running.

Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)​

Compressed natural gas, or CNG, is produced by compressing NG down to less than 1% of its volume at standard atmospheric pressure. The CNG volume to be transported or stored can be from 150 to 300 times less than gas at atmospheric pressure. Producing CNG is a simple low-cost process and involves gas pre-treatment (depending on the gas source and quality) and compression. The NG arrives at the compression station at a low pressure from a local pipeline or truck, where it is compressed and stored in cylindrical or spherical storage containers at a pressure of 100 bar to 250 bar.

The main function of CNG is as an alternative for gasoline and diesel fuels for medium-duty vehicles travelling a moderate distance between refuelling. There are some other uses of CNG that include power generation and industrial consumers, however these are less developed due to the gas volumes required often being too high. CNG is typically used onshore for gas supply over short distances and in smaller volumes. Generally, CNG can be economically viable for volumes up to 140 000 ms3/day (5 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscf/d)), and distances up to 800 km.

The transportation of CNG can be onshore by truck or offshore by ship or barge. The largest cost in the CNG supply chain is the midstream transportation component, contributing up to 90% of the capital required. CNG onshore transportation by truck involves the facilities to load CNG into a pressurised transportable container at the compression site and the offloading facilities that includes the heating, let down and metering of the CNG at the customer site. The CNG offshore transportation by ship or barge involves a vessel with a containment system to transport the CNG from the source to the customer site. Figure 4 shows some of the different designs of trucks, ISO containers, and marine vessels for the transport of CNG.

The offshore marine CNG supply chain consists of three main components, namely:

• Export onshore: The upstream loading compression station with loading terminal (onshore or offshore)
• Shipping: The CNG carrier vessel, be it dedicated CNG ship, barge, or container vessel (offshore)
• Import onshore: The downstream unloading terminal (onshore or offshore) and the unloading decompression station.

The offshore transportation cost of CNG is directly proportional to the volume of gas and distance between the gas source and the consumers. This transportation method is best suited for medium distance projects: however, it is not well developed and has not yet been proven. The offshore transportation development to date is proposed to handle production rates between 1,4 million ms3/day and 19,8 million ms3/day (50 and 700 MMscf/d) and distances between 185 km and 3 700 km (100 nautical miles and 2000 nautical miles). For small volumes and distances barge shipping may be the appropriate method.

The Iso-Tank in the bottom right hand corner is particularly interesting as that could be loaded on a train, railroaded to Churchill then it could be evacuated into CNG tanker or loaded onto a container vessel.

All of this until we could convince someone to tie up a floating LNG facility at the dock.

In the meantime we could start chartering Baltic Sea tankers. And possibly shipping in bulk.

CNG carrier - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

• Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan can import CNG from Russia and Papua New Guinea
• India can import CNG from Qatar, Iran, Yamen, Oman, Myanmar, Israel (via Red Sea) and Mozambique
• Israel can export CNG to all countries having coast line with Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea including Western Europe and India.
• Russia can export CNG to Western Europe via Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea.
• United States can export CNG to Western Europe, Cuba, Greenland and Iceland.
• Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan can export CNG to Western Europe via Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Caspian Sea

 

[Brad Sallows]

I agree that's what conservatism used to be. From Eisenhower to Regan/Mulroney up to about 2016.

MAGA has upended that cart and made it look like something else. It's isolationism over global trade and the US doesn't want to pay for the global trade protection anymore. That's the actual subsidization, it doesn't come from trade flows it comes from guaranteeing safe trade.

MAGA (however people choose to define it) isn't conservativism. I again remind readers that Trump spent most of his life leaning Democratic, and when he ran in the primaries in 2016 many conservatives questioned his suitability on the basis of that. His signature aims right now are squarely in Democratic traditions. What "conservativism" is doesn't change because someone tries to misappropriate the definition.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Oh it’s definitely complicated.

Trumpism - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

It will likely outlast him. It would be naive to think that this is just a 4year phenomenon and that everything will be fine after.

The editors of Wikipedia are not useful or reliable arbiters of definitions on political matters.

Undoubtedly the realignment of US voters and the politicians seeking to exploit the shift will persist. Trump's personal irrationality will not.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Trudeau could throw billions more dollars into the border “problem” and put 10 thousand of our military on border patrol, and still that wouldn’t be enough. It’s a non-issue and Trump knows it. As always he has taken a basic truth, spun it into a great exaggeration and followed it up with embellishment after embellishment.

I agree - but going ahead and adding something of substance to the border 'issue' for the mere optics of doing it, to highlight to those of any intelligence in the US, 'See, no matter what we do, Trump is going to say its not enough'. And we then go the route of the World Trade Organization, which we did either today or yesterday, and file a formal compliant. Will it amount to anything, maybe yes or maybe no, but we do it by the book. Which again will highlight to anyone in the US with intelligence that Trump is an idoit.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Trump just unilaterally caved on tariffs for the auto sector for another month.

Predictable and predicted. Now if Canadian leaders would just keep their nerve, suspend measures that are going to worsen the situation for consumers on both sides of the border, and let other people under pressure solve the problem for us.

 

[Remius]

The editors of Wikipedia are not useful or reliable arbiters of definitions on political matters.

Easily dismissed but not being very intellectually honest on the subject if you ignore the sources cited. The definitions are there and are being studied by various institutions. Whether you accept that is on you.

Undoubtedly the realignment of US voters and the politicians seeking to exploit the shift will persist. Trump's personal irrationality will not.

His irrationality is not what will persist. You missed the point.

Trumpism will persist beyond him.

 

[PrairieFella]

I bet it was a very stern talking to.

Think they showed him a video of the JFK assassination from a never before seen angle?

 

[Underway]

MAGA (however people choose to define it) isn't conservativism. I again remind readers that Trump spent most of his life leaning Democratic, and when he ran in the primaries in 2016 many conservatives questioned his suitability on the basis of that. His signature aims right now are squarely in Democratic traditions. What "conservativism" is doesn't change because someone tries to misappropriate the definition.

That's funny because (classic) liberalism is actually modern conservatism. So yes, words change their definitions along with people. Especially political philosophies as they evolve over time.

 

[Remius]

That's funny because (classic) liberalism is actually modern conservatism. So yes, words change their definitions along with people. Especially political philosophies as they evolve over time.

Hence “Trumpism” being an actual thing.

 

[Underway]

Trumpism will persist beyond him.

It will, but the GOP has no plan for when his threats and scare tactics are gone. There is going to be a huge internal fight when that happens as no one can repeat what he's done.

All those scared Congressmen and Senators will be able to speak their mind with no organized threat to them. His personality cult will only have so much sway after he leaves office.

 

[Czech_pivo]

That's funny because (classic) liberalism is actually modern conservatism. So yes, words change their definitions along with people. Especially political philosophies as they evolve over time.

Is that like, 'Yesterday's Communist is today's Capitalist' and 'Yesterday's Fascist is today's Republican'?

 

[brihard]

It will, but the GOP has no plan for when his threats and scare tactics are gone. There is going to be a huge internal fight when that happens as no one can repeat what he's done.

All those scared Congressmen and Senators will be able to speak their mind with no organized threat to them. His personality cult will only have so much sway after he leaves office.

Why? The oligarchy will still be there paying for campaigns both for and against.

 

[Remius]

Why? The oligarchy will still be there paying for campaigns both for and against.

And I am certain they will attempt succession in one shape or another.

 

[Czech_pivo]

So am I to understand that nothing on either side has changed other than that auto related goods are exempt from US tariffs but all the rest is still in place?

This still means that Ontario can slap a 25% export tax on all nickel heading to the US and still shut down the US auto factories.

 

[Brad Sallows]

His irrationality is not what will persist. You missed the point.

Trumpism will persist beyond him.

Unlikely. As soon as one major characteristic - say, trade protectionism as arbitrary leverage for foreign policy - is dropped, it ceases to be Trumpism. Trump's irrationality is the entire point - without Trump, and without Trump's manifestly absurd policies, whatever succeeds him is overwhelmingly likely to just be garden-variety conservativism with a populist flavour.

 

[PrairieFella]

So am I to understand that nothing on either side has changed other than that auto related goods are exempt from US tariffs but all the rest is still in place?

Correct.

 

[JLB50]

I agree - but going ahead and adding something of substance to the border 'issue' for the mere optics of doing it, to highlight to those of any intelligence in the US, 'See, no matter what we do, Trump is going to say its not enough'. And we then go the route of the World Trade Organization, which we did either today or yesterday, and file a formal compliant. Will it amount to anything, maybe yes or maybe no, but we do it by the book. Which again will highlight to anyone in the US with intelligence that Trump is an idoit.

Reminds me of that line by H.L.Mencken, something to the effect of “No promoter ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” Actually, I may credit Trump with more intelligence than you give him. He is seriously disturbed and a danger to the public but not an idiot.