CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Fishbone Jones]

From BBCHere

Donald Trump has now just confirmed the "immediate pause" in anticipated tariffs on goods from Mexico via a post on Truth Social.

"We [...] agreed to immediately pause the anticipated tariffs for a one month period during which we will have negotiations headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and high-level Representatives of Mexico," he writes.

It seem like Mexico has found the key. The same key I've been pushing for all along.

Don't be petulant and get your ass to the negotiating table. Tariffs were a way to get our attention and prove Trump is serious and not willing to put up with the long, drawn out, bafflegab games that the trudeau government is famous for.

Perhaps finally, someone sitting with trudeau will be able to make our child PM understand things. Hopefully by 15:00 today.

I can just about guarantee things will switch to the better when Trump doesn't have to deal with people that backstab him, carry out gossip, rumour and whisper campaigns behind his back. He knows trudeau is a two faced opportunist and chronic liar and he doesn't trust him or his government. As most Canadians also don't.

 

[suffolkowner]

i was under the impression that US banks just didnt want to meet the regulatory requirements

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Carney won't be elected PM.
Carney is selected as PM.

I really don't want the fucking liberals even touching the negotiations. Alas, we don't have much choice. Especially with the orange liberal side of the party, with singh trying to make deals in the hallway.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Brexit had a bigger influence on that than anything else, and many economists have stayed Britain would of been worse off without him.

And many economists have rejected him. A large part of it was Carney and Net Zero. Because of him, Britain's O&G industry is effectively finished, gone, kaput, resulting in Britain having some of the highest energy costs in the world. Costs that normal citizens can't meet.

He wants the same for our O&G. To kill it off. All the while he's building foreign pipelines to foreign oil to bolster the profits of his company. Heck, if you can't outcompete the other players, just blow them up and make the competition disappear. Just like organized crime, except with some finesse.

 

[Kirkhill]

My take -

US perception.

Foreigners are propping up the USD, keeping it strong.
A strong dollar benefits US consumers by keeping import prices low.
A strong dollar disadvantages US workers by keeping export prices high.

Trump-Miran solution.

Strengthen the USD to the benefit of the US consumer
Use the headspace created by the strengthened dollar to add import tariffs without disadvantaging the consumer.
Use the tariff revenues generated to improve the government's balance sheet
- pay down debt
- reduce borrowing rates
- free up cash
- reduce taxes, especially income and corporate taxes

Create a more attractive investment climate
Use lower taxes to offset the cost of doing business in the US because of the stronger dollar.

Increase local employment with new jobs.

US citizens gain new jobs, lower taxes and the benefits of low cost imports due to a strong dollar.

....

Canada's situation.

Weak Canadian Dollar (and every other currency) means that all goods purchased from the US will be more costly.
I don't reckon Trump's moves will have much impact on the price of a Korean TV or Fridge in Canada.

With the 10% tariff on oil being offset by a 10% stronger USD then I expect oil revenues in Canadian Dollars to stay even.
On the other hand the price of specialty equipment from the US is likely to increase making investments harder.

On the other hand buying US Abrams and F35s with weak Loonies will eat into that 2% Defence GDP that much faster.

.....

To strengthen the Canadian Dollar we need to strengthen the Canadian economy and we can only do that by giving people reasons to invest here. The best reasons are our resources which everyone else will now want to compete with the US.

We want investors to help us get those resources to their markets.

One way to kick start this is, if we must have tariffs, then use those tariffs to start that infrastructure investment.

The US will be able to offset the cost of the tariffs with a stronger dollar.

Our weaker dollar will mean that the pain of the tariffs we impose on ourselves will be increased.

Imposing tariffs on ourselves is less effective than growing our economy and attracting investment.

 

[Kirkhill]

Actually, a large part of it was Carney and Net Zero. Because of him, Britain's O&G industry is effectively finished, gone, kaput, resulting in Britain having some of the highest energy costs in the world. Costs that normal citizens can't meet.

Carney left behind him Net Zero, ESG and DEI, a preference for EU communitarianism and few friends in either the City of London or the UK.

His pals were Tony Blair Labourites and the Fabians as well as CBI (Confederation of British Industry) Tories.

 

[Fabius]

I wonder what Canada is going to do that will get us to the negotiating table? Assuming we want to be at the table?

 

[dapaterson]

i was under the impression that US banks just didnt want to meet the regulatory requirements

Therefore abandon protections to appease the US, is I suspect the endgame.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I wonder what Canada is going to do that will get us to the negotiating table? Assuming we want to be at the table?

Hopefully, Canadians will find out at 15:00 that we have an adult solution made by people that want to move forward. Also hopefully, those that have taken retaliatory moves, torn up contracts and banned US goods haven't damaged things too far.

 

[tomydoom]

Therefore abandon protections to appease the US, is I suspect the endgame.

The very protections that kept Canada from feeling the worst of the 2008 global finance collapse. Hmmm, no thanks.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Hassett says to focus on the plain language of the executive order (which is all about fentanyl and border security) and not view it as a trade war, yet Trump is the one saying the number one issue is balancing out trade. And now Trump is raising the issue of access to our banking sector to resolve the tariffs. It’s not Canada that’s misunderstanding the point of the executive order that’s supposed to be focused on border security, it’s Trump.

Not to mention the US Sec of Trade before the tariffs were announced, "they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff."
For the record, here's the Truth Social posts in question, on Mexico ....

... and on Canada

#MovingGoalposts anyone?

Also, here's what MEX's prez posted on her own socials:


For even more clarity, here's part of the text from the Exec Order (highlights mine):


Note that the bit in blue could be fixed on the U.S. side of the border.

Now, all this assumes we can read what POTUS47 wants just by what he says and writes.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Not to mention the US Sec of Trade before the tariffs were announced, "they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff."
For the record, here's the Truth Social posts in question, on Mexico ....
View attachment 90978
... and on Canada
View attachment 90979
#MovingGoalposts anyone?

Also, here's what MEX's prez posted on her own socials:
View attachment 90982

For even more clarity, here's part of the text from the Exec Order (highlights mine):
View attachment 90980
View attachment 90981
Note that the bit in blue could be fixed on the U.S. side of the border.

Now, all this assumes we can read what POTUS47 wants just by what he says and writes.

And there it is.

Mexico moves 10,000 troops to the border for drug interdiction.
Canada promises money and leases two helicopters.

Mexico gains the concession of US action on curtailing the flow of guns to Mexico.
Canadians still being killed because of the uncontrolled smuggling of guns into Canada.

 

[brihard]

Minor point but the capabilities are not the same. Xplore is run off of geostationary satellites currently, lag is a significant issue. The Telesat LEO Lightspeed network is not yet operational or built…

I’m not saying it’s the same, just that Ontario recognized them as one of two qualied options. Queen’s Park never consulted me personally on it.

i was under the impression that US banks just didnt want to meet the regulatory requirements

Yup. In the U.S., banks are state regulated. Here they’re federal. We regulate relatively tightly to protect solvency. That served us very well in 2008-9. If US banks want to conform to Canadian regulations they can probably access our market.

 

[calculus]

Trump’s press secretary says report of March 1 tariffs ‘false’; Canadian source says no w

It seem like Mexico has found the key. The same key I've been pushing for all along.

Don't be petulant and get your ass to the negotiating table. Tariffs were a way to get our attention and prove Trump is serious and not willing to put up with the long, drawn out, bafflegab games that the trudeau government is famous for.

Perhaps finally, someone sitting with trudeau will be able to make our child PM understand things. Hopefully by 15:00 today.

I can just about guarantee things will switch to the better when Trump doesn't have to deal with people that backstab him, carry out gossip, rumour and whisper campaigns behind his back. He knows trudeau is a two faced opportunist and chronic liar and he doesn't trust him or his government. As most Canadians also don't.

Surely we could put some resources along the border? Even having our new Kingfishers fly "patrols" with all those fancy sensors would have a positive impact. We have a lot of aircraft with EO/IR that could participate.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I’m not saying it’s the same, just that Ontario recognized them as one of two qualied options. Queen’s Park never consulted me personally on it.

Yup. In the U.S., banks are state regulated. Here they’re federal. We regulate relatively tightly to protect solvency. That served us very well in 2008-9. If US banks want to conform to Canadian regulations they can probably access our market.

Xactly. I doubt TD demanded changes to US banking laws in exchange for their access. The US banks need to do the same. Conform.

 

[Remius]

I’m not saying it’s the same, just that Ontario recognized them as one of two qualied options. Queen’s Park never consulted me personally on it.

Yup. In the U.S., banks are state regulated. Here they’re federal. We regulate relatively tightly to protect solvency. That served us very well in 2008-9. If US banks want to conform to Canadian regulations they can probably access our market.

There are already American banks that do.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Surely we could put some resources along the border? Even having our new Kingfishers fly "patrols" with all those fancy sensors would have a positive impact. We have a lot of aircraft with EO/IR that could participate.

We have a lot of LAVs with surveillance suites also.

 

[The Bread Guy]

We have a lot of LAVs with surveillance suites also.

Enough to cover the border in question?

Edited to add: We also have surveillance airframes of more than one type, and I don't know how busy they may be at any given moment, but I very vaguely remember reading on the boards here about potential legal issues re: military hardware surveilling in Canada. Happy to hear more on that from those who'd be in the know & able to share publicly. Same question re: surveillance using army stuff. TIA

 

[Fishbone Jones]

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-02-03/canada-not-optimistic-about-a-mexico-style-tariff-reprieve-says-new-york-times

Oh Canada! Showing weakness with a defeatist attitude is not the way to start negotiations. Saying stupid shit like this shows the lack of confidence our current government has in its own negotiators. Amateurs.

Fucking trudeau and his jellyfish.

Trump called trudeau this morning and said he'd call back at 15:00.

A good guess would be that Trump said "Here's how we can avoid this. Think about it. I'll call back at three. You give me your answer." Trudeau gathers his three or four advisers, Butts, Telford, Carney and says "What do you think?"

I guess we'll find out how serious they take it at 3 o'clock.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Enough to cover the border in question?

Of course not. However, if Canada is unaware of the hotspots, where they can be placed, we deserve to have our asses handed to us.