CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Good2Golf]

I think you’re right.

And if PM Carney ask for and gets the GG’s approval to extend the Givernment beyond the legislative date for the election as an emergency measure to ‘deal with President Trump’ the tariffs will be further increased…

 

[JLB50]

Damn, if that’s the case, then it’s a pretty good reason to vote Liberal.

 

[Remius]

Negotiations have been tried for months?

Trump was inaugurated 11 days ago.

Could you clarify your statement please?

Yes. Trudeau went down to maralago to discuss. This isn’t news.

 

[NearingZenith]

Trump threatens trade war with EU

President hits China, Canada and Mexico with tariffs – and says Europe will be next

www.telegraph.co.uk

One way the temperature of these discussions could be lowered is by removing the word "war" from the vocabulary. Along with "existential" and "devastating".

We are not looking at a short, sharp shock here. We are looking at a change of course.

Most Americans oppose tariffs on Canadian imports, annexation: poll

It’s also important that we keep our rhetoric properly calibrated to keep the American public/voters on our side. Right now the majority of Americans oppose tariffs, believe tariffs will increase prices, and are opposed to Trump’s talk of annexing Canada.

It pretty clear now that Canadian officials won’t be able to dissuade Trump from tariffs and other American politicians and business executives seem unlikely to do so either. We’ll have to rely on the American people’s opposition to tariffs to change Trump’s mind. Americans are very patriotic of course, so Canada needs to make sure our rhetoric and counter-tariffs don’t make the American people feel personally targeted or under attack and that they continue to blame the impacts of tariffs on Trump rather than Canada to prevent them from simply rallying around their flag and their President which will drag out this “special tariff operation” indefinitely.

 

[brihard]

And if PM Carney ask for and gets the GG’s approval to extend the Givernment beyond the legislative date for the election as an emergency measure to ‘deal with President Trump’ the tariffs will be further increased…

Why are people pretending this is a thing he can unilaterally do? It’s codified into the Canada Elections Act. Is this the week’s new conspiracy theory, Carney will get voted in by the party and then somehow just blow through election law without it being succesfully challenged in court on the strength of a clear legislative requirement?

 

[ModlrMike]

So, tariffs on Canada and Mexico, plus the threat of tariffs on Europe. I'm not sure a global trade war is going to have the outcome he expects.

 

[ModlrMike]

Why are people pretending this is a thing he can unilaterally do? It’s codified into the Canada Elections Act. Is this the week’s new conspiracy theory, Carney will get voted in by the party and then somehow just blow through election law without it being succesfully challenged in court on the strength of a clear legislative requirement?

If the opposition parties get even the slightest whiff that this option is in play, there will be a rapid non-confidence motion. The GG will then be forced to make a choice.

 

[Kirkhill]

Some back of the envelope economics from a poor salesman.

September 1st 2024, before Trump was elected and before any tariffs had been discussed Alberta Oil (WCS) was selling in the States at 55.90 USD per barrel.
The WCS was displacing the homegrown WTI which the US was selling on the open market at 70.24 USD per barrel allowing the States to pocket 14.34 USD per barrel as gross revenue.

At that time the Canadian Dollar was trading at 74 US Cents on the Canadian Dollar.
At that price and exchange rate Alberta was pocketing 75.54 CAD per barrel.
And the Alberta budget was looking pretty healthy.

...

Changes.

...

Today WCS is selling in the States at 61.42 USD per barrel. The price the US refineries are paying has risen 10%.
WTI is selling for 72.53 USD per barrel giving allowing the US to pocket 11.11 USD per barrel as gross revenue. The revenue has fallen 22%.

Today the Canadian Dollar is trading at 69 US Cents on the Canadian Dollar. A 7% reduction in the value of the Canadian Dollar.
At today's price and exchange rate Alberta is pocketing 89.01 CAD per barrel. An 18% increase in the revenue stream to Alberta.
And the Alberta budget is looking even healthier.

...

Future with a 10% tariff added.

With a 10% tariff on top of today's price the US refineries will be paying 67.56 USD per barrel.
Assuming that WTI is still selling at today's price of 72.53 USD (a poor assumption) then the US will only be pocketing 4.97 USD per barrel

Alberta will still be pocketing 89.01 CAD per barrel.

Is it still worth the US refineries' effort? Possibly not.

...

Solution

Alberta sells oil at 75.54 CAD per barrel, its Sept 1 2024 price. With the weaker dollar and the reduced price then the US refineries will be paying 57.34 USD per barrel for the WCS and be selling WTI at 72.53 USD resulting in a revenue stream of 15.19 USD per barrel.

The refineries will actually be making 85 Cents a barrel more than they were before the tariff was imposed and Alberta is making exactly the same.

...

These types of changes are well within the "natural" flux the markets experience. There is nothing world ending about them.

 

[brihard]

If the opposition parties get even the slightest whiff that this option is in play, there will be a rapid non-confidence motion. The GG will then be forced to make a choice.

Not really. The next possible confidence motion would result in the government losing confidence in the house and the GG, as is convention, would dissolve Parliament.

 

[OldSolduer]

Whatever happens I am sure we will weather the storm. Lets see what happens. Hang on it could be a wild ride

 

[Kirkhill]

 

[suffolkowner]

Why are people pretending this is a thing he can unilaterally do? It’s codified into the Canada Elections Act. Is this the week’s new conspiracy theory, Carney will get voted in by the party and then somehow just blow through election law without it being succesfully challenged in court on the strength of a clear legislative requirement?

To go from 4 to 5 would necessitate a change to the Elections Act?
from 5 to 6 a vote of more than 2/3 of the HofC?

 

[brihard]

To go from 4 to 5 would necessitate a change to the Elections Act?
from 5 to 6 a vote of more than 2/3 of the HofC?

4 back to 5 would be passing legislation amending the Elections Act.

Anything over 5 would be amending the Charter, which as a part of the Constitution would require a majority vote in the House, which he Senate, and the legislative assemblies of at least 7/10 provinces representing at least 50% of the population.

 

[suffolkowner]

4 back to 5 would be passing legislation amending the Elections Act.

Anything over 5 would be amending the Charter, which as a part of the Constitution would require a majority vote in the House, which he Senate, and the legislative assemblies of at least 7/10 provinces representing at least 50% of the population.

theres no emergency provision extension anymore?

 

[QV]

Rona Ambrose weighs in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1885470570483228789

 

[OldSolduer]

Rona Ambrose weighs in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1885470570483228789

And where is the current PM? I mean Justin Trudeau?

He quit and ran away....

 

[Good2Golf]

Why are people pretending this is a thing he can unilaterally do? It’s codified into the Canada Elections Act. Is this the week’s new conspiracy theory, Carney will get voted in by the party and then somehow just blow through election law without it being succesfully challenged in court on the strength of a clear legislative requirement?

It takes the same vote to add a year as it would to change the election date from 20 to 27 October to ‘respect’ Diwali…

Not really. The next possible confidence motion would result in the government losing confidence in the house and the GG, as is convention, would dissolve Parliament.

Ummm, you’re certain the Jagmeet & Co. would bite against Carney’s election amendment bill?

 

[brihard]

theres no emergency provision extension anymore?

There’s a limited one to postpone the election, found in s.59 of the Canada Elections Act. It’s not a simple matter of the PM waving his hand and declaring an emergency. It certainly would not achieve what G2G suggested could happen.

It takes the same vote to add a year as it would to change the election date from 20 to 27 October to ‘respect’ Diwali…

But I wasn’t replying to you suggesting a legislative amendment. As a reminder:

And if PM Carney ask for and gets the GG’s approval to extend the Givernment beyond the legislative date for the election as an emergency measure to ‘deal with President Trump’ the tariffs will be further increased…

 

[Good2Golf]

Okay, vote approval, with Royal Assent after HoC and Senate passage…

 

[Quirky]

It’s never too late for Canada and Canadians too start focusing on their own national interests and too undertake things that they fully control.

Canada can scrap the planned carbon tax increases that are still scheduled.

Canada can immediately start disassembling interprovincial trade barriers.

Canada can start development of O&G export routes to the coasts.

Canada can make itself more attractive to foreign investment.

Canada can spend more on defence.

Canada can take national security more seriously.

No matter how much Canadians dislike Trump, Canada can’t make him do anything.

We can either spend our efforts fighting the US in a trade war, where is winning is us remaining as vulnerable as before or we spend our efforts building our own internal strength and building our global capacity.

I expect we will expend our efforts fighting the US while ignoring any attempts to make our selves more resilient and diversified.

It’s fun watching Canadians realize the decisions of the last decade left us in a very vulnerable position. Now this country is pissed that someone noticed we are the sick old animal to be taken down by the predator. Good job everyone!