CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Remius]

I'm not sure. That's why we need to sit down and act calmly and purposefully. We need to look them in the eye and ask what they want and what we have in our power to honestly and urgently give.

Canada couldn't muster 2000 troops, never mind 10,000. We need another angle.

The US sent thousands of troops to the southern border because they think it’s serious.

What has been sent north?

This is why I think the border issue is purely to get his emergency to do something he normally can’t do without one.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The US sent thousands of troops to the southern border because they think it’s serious.

What has been sent north?

This is why I think the border issue is purely to get his emergency to do something he normally can’t do without one.

Maybe he just wants to see how serious we are. Things like this are normal in the world of wheeling dealing, negotiation and deal making. Trump has plenty of reason to distrust trudeau.

He hasn’t built a wall up here either. Should he do that also?

Maybe after trudeau finishes turning Canada into Mexico, we can have the same amenities the US offers Mexico.

 

[Kirkhill]

Enough to cover the border in question?

Edited to add: We also have surveillance airframes of more than one type, and I don't know how busy they may be at any given moment, but I very vaguely remember reading on the boards here about potential legal issues re: military hardware surveilling in Canada. Happy to hear more on that from those who'd be in the know & able to share publicly. Same question re: surveillance using army stuff. TIA

Facetiously I suggested parking a Leo at each land port only to be informed there were 117 ports and we have less than 80 Leos.

On the other hand we have something like 5-600 LAVs but only 66(?) of them are LRSS types. But the ISC, CP and FOV types could be useful.

How about the TAPVs? As long as they are moving anywhere. A couple of hundred ROWS with EO/IR suites.

 

[QV]

Premier Doug Ford has announced that Ontario will be blocking US companies out of bidding on provincial contracts, potentially a loss of $10b a year in business (something something trade balance). He’s also ‘ripping up’ Ontario’s $100m contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink to provide satellite internet to more remote parts of Ontario.

Ontario pausing retaliatory measures after tariffs postponed, Doug Ford says

Ontario Premier Doug Ford says the province is pausing a suite of retaliatory measures that it was set to begin implementing following an 11th hour postponement of U.S. tariffs.

www.ctvnews.ca

Ford is making irrational moves (mainly to appear tough). This will bite him back.

 

[QV]

Trump called trudeau this morning and said he'd call back at 15:00.

A good guess would be that Trump said "Here's how we can avoid this. Think about it. I'll call back at three. You give me your answer." Trudeau gathers his three or four advisers, Butts, Telford, Carney and says "What do you think?"

I guess we'll find out how serious they take it at 3 o'clock.

How many RFI have now gone out to CAF and RCMP about border security this morning? "How many people can we get on the border by tomorrow? I need an answer by 1455hrs!"

Probably not exactly like that - but I'm guessing Trump said exactly what he wants to see and Trudeau is now seeing if it can/should be done.

 

[Remius]

Maybe he just wants to see how serious we are. Things like this are normal in the world of wheeling dealing, negotiation and deal making.

This isn’t normal.

Trump has plenty of reason to distrust trudeau.

Sure. I won’t argue that.

He hasn’t built a wall up here either. Should he do that also?

Exactly my point. If the northern border was as serious as they say they’d do something commensurate with that. But they haven’t.

Maybe after trudeau finishes turning Canada into Mexico, we can have the same amenities the US offers Mexico.

Assuming he keeps moving the gosl posts.

Seems that every time Canada tries to address a concern something changes.

 

[mariomike]

This is why I think the border issue is purely to get his emergency to do something he normally can’t do without one.

Like what?

 

[Remius]

How many RFI have now gone out to CAF and RCMP about border security this morning? "How many people can we get on the border by tomorrow? I need an answer by 1455hrs!"

Probably not exactly like that - but I'm guessing Trump said exactly what he wants to see and Trudeau is now seeing if it can/should be done.

You are making an assumption that didn’t already happen when they made that request the first time a couple of months ago.

 

[Remius]

Like what?

Like tariffs

 

[YZT580]

Agreed. That said, what's your read re: how it'll be taken by POTUS47 if CAN offers increased surveillance with AFVs at hot spots, compared to 10K troops MEX coughed up? I suspect that's not "deal" enough.

we don't have 10,000 troops to station on the border! Oops, I forgot, that is his other beef: 2% to the armed forces

 

[foresterab]

Part of the issue for me is that while there is a lot of talk about physical presence at the border - and I'll let the CBSA, RCMP and CAF argue on the best role to manage that piece what is not being talked about is the financial side.

When I think of the BC report on money laundering by gangs via casinos and real estate...https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/justice/anti-money-laundering/reports and the estimate 5% of real estate value in BC being affected....that's a huge issue. I know I'm picking on BC but when the rumor back home (Alberta here) is that the largest drug distributor locally is also the biggest real estate agent...makes you wonder how wide spread the issue is. And it's not just Mexican or Chinese gangs but local Canadian gangs involved.

So how to combat these challenges if 10,000 troops is not practical?
1) Need parliament operating.

2) Ensure there's no turf war silos and ensure that both intelligence re cross border movements is shared and ACTION taken by all parties involved.

3) Look very seriously at real estate/casino laundering situations. It is my understanding we have a hodge podge mix of provincial registries that do not align with tax reporting/national registraries making it very easy to shift funds around. An example of such changes is shown here: Recommendation 13The BC Minister of Finance should recommend to her federal counterpart that the Proceedsof Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act be amended to add mortgage lendersChapter 8:Analysis andRecommendationsCombatting Money Laundering in BC Real Estate84 Expert Panel on Money Laundering in BC Real Estateand mortgage intermediaries to the list of reporting entities, in addition to the entitiesrecommended by the Standing Committee on Finance. taken from https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/h...-in-bc/combatting-money-laundering-report.pdf

4) Look seriously at our deportation laws. We currently have what appears to my eyes as "good faith" or voluntary deportation laws. And then you have the US chartering military flights to evict illegal residents. It's a very different message and while I fully understand we have different processes and good faith review of each file is needed I still find it very weak that those convicted of crimes are allowed to stay. With some estimates as to improper Canadian residents (illegal border crossings + overstayed visas) at 500,000 Nearly half of Canadians favour mass deportations and 65% think there are too many immigrants: poll that's a huge number for the country. Note I do have sympathy for those who have applied and are awaiting long delayed documents from the government (aka following the rules) but I don't have much sympathy for those trying to cut the line or breaking them.

anyways...Monday morning thoughts while I wait for coffee to kick in.

 

[Good2Golf]

It seem like Mexico has found the key. The same key I've been pushing for all along.

Don't be petulant and get your ass to the negotiating table. Tariffs were a way to get our attention and prove Trump is serious and not willing to put up with the long, drawn out, bafflegab games that the trudeau government is famous for.

Perhaps finally, someone sitting with trudeau will be able to make our child PM understand things. Hopefully by 15:00 today.

I can just about guarantee things will switch to the better when Trump doesn't have to deal with people that backstab him, carry out gossip, rumour and whisper campaigns behind his back. He knows trudeau is a two faced opportunist and chronic liar and he doesn't trust him or his government. As most Canadians also don't.

Either two outcomes today at 15:00 EST:

1) Canada announces 10s of Billions of investment in security and foreign interference related protective measures and Trump rescinds the tariffs; or

2) Trudeau doubles down, followed by Trump potentially doubling down on on US tariffs, and we see how things devolve from there.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Ford is making irrational moves (mainly to appear tough). This will bite him back.

I addressed this not far back. Impulsive moves like this, even before we know what's what, is not conducive to amicable discussion or negotiation.

Now he's screwed. Like the feds, he went right for the nuclear option, he said no. You never, ever say no, you continue to work towards a win win solution. Nor do you toss your most damaging, dangerous option on the table as a bargaining position to start discussions. If things start moving, he has to renege and back off his position. He has zero choice but to lose face and credibility doing that. Or be stubborn and sink the whole negotiation into a win lose for Trump.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Either two outcomes today at 15:00 EST:

1) Canada announces 10s of Billions of investment in security and foreign interference related protective measures and Trump rescinds the tariffs; or

2) Trudeau doubles down, followed by Trump potentially doubling down on on US tariffs, and we see how things devolve from there.

3) Having now flexed and gotten us to jump, DJT reveals specific the economic and geopolitical concessions he requires to forgo tariffs.

 

[QV]

3) Having now flexed and gotten us to jump, DJT reveals specific the economic and geopolitical concessions he requires to forgo tariffs.

I guess that happened in the first call this morning...

 

[Fishbone Jones]

You are making an assumption that didn’t already happen when they made that request the first time a couple of months ago.

And your making the assumption they already did.

Assumptions make for good discussion but that’s about it.

We used to have a saying about assuming.

 

[Czech_pivo]

This isn’t normal.

Sure. I won’t argue that.

Exactly my point. If the northern border was as serious as they say they’d do something commensurate with that. But they haven’t.

Assuming he keeps moving the gosl posts.

Seems that every time Canada tries to address a concern something changes.

Maybe because there are a number of concerns in POTUS's eyes? Maybe he's picking the low-hanging fruit first?

 

[Remius]

And your making the assumption they already did.

Assumptions make for good discussion but that’s about it.

We used to have a saying about assuming.

You assume that I am making assumptions.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Maybe because there are a number of concerns in POTUS's eyes? Maybe he's picking the low-hanging fruit first?

There could be a myriad of reasons. Nobody has stopped and asked him.

"This isn’t normal."
It is to anyone trained in sales and negotiation.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

You assume that I am making assumptions.

If your not assuming or guessing, you can post your sources and put it to rest for all of us.