CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Remius]

If your not assuming or guessing, you can post your sources and put it to rest for all of us.

I’ll leave it as is.

Cheers.

 

[QV]

The first of the two pay-walled articles in the Globe and Mail I referenced above.

Opinion: How are we so befuddled at U.S. tariffs, when it’s all been so obvious?

Why this U.S. administration applauds tariffs should not be a secret. U.S. President Donald Trump’s chief economist Stephen Miran has been rather explicit

www.theglobeandmail.com

Interesting read. Anyone who imagines this is all just Trump should pay attention to who he has in the back room: U.S. President Donald Trump’s chief economist, Stephen Miran, a Harvard-trained PhD and hedge fund strategist nominated to chair the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, wrote in November “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System.

Trump is just the blunt instrument. There are many in the background pushing for reform.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I'm going to go ahead and add to my 2025 Bingo Card this:

1) Canada to join AUKUS - obtains 8-10 Virginia's
2) Canada joins the US Strategic Ballistic Missile Defense initiative

Anyone else have items they want to add to their 2025 Bingo cards?

 

[Czech_pivo]

There could be a myriad of reasons. Nobody has stopped and asked him.

"This isn’t normal."
It is to anyone trained in sales and negotiation.

Hence my earlier points on the lack of trained business people within the inner circle of Team Red over the last 5yrs.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I'm going to go ahead and add to my 2025 Bingo Card this:

1) Canada to join AUKUS - obtains 8-10 Virginia's
2) Canada joins the US Strategic Ballistic Missile Defense initiative

Anyone else have items they want to add to their 2025 Bingo cards?

Revising from Friday my guess for the demands list:

• End of dairy supply management or other change to enable US participation in our market
• Relaxed Banking Regulation to allow US entrance to Canada
• USN granted blanket freedom of navigation in Canadian claimed territorial waters in the North
• Canada to write a cheque and get out of the way for a "joint" base at Nanasivik
• Canada to join in all US tariff and trade action against China
• Canada to join the US in tariffing all auto manufactured outside of our joint continental supply chain

 

[Remius]

Revising from Friday my guess for the demands list:

• End of dairy supply management or other chance to enable US participation in our market
• Relaxed Banking Regulation to allow US entrance to Canada
• USN granted blanket freedom of navigation in Canadian claimed territorial waters in the North
• Canada to write a cheque and get out of the way for a "joint" base at Nanasivik
• Canada to join in all US tariff and trade action against China

Those are possible. I could see supply management being on the table. Pretty sure the US already had freedom of movement in northern waters but could be wrong. US banks already have access. Not keen on private banks coming in.

 

[Kirkhill]

How many of these are running?

Reconnaissance TAPV​

• 193 to be delivered
• 138 equipped with a remote weapons system
• Crew of three personnel (driver, crew commander, gunner) and two soldiers

General Utility TAPV​

• 307 to be delivered
• 226 equipped with a remote weapons system
• Crew of three personnel (driver, crew commander, gunner) and three soldiers

Just the things for Canada's new Bundesgrenzschutz (Canada Border Service Agency patrols)

500 vehicles and 117 land ports
1 Troop of 4 vehicles per port.

500 vehicles and 8891 km of land border
18 km per vehicle
72 km per Troop.

Edit: Any Class B takers?

Add drones to each Troop.

Back up with LEO (Law Enforcement Officers - Not Leopards) and helicopters.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Just 30 seconds ago he’s pushing this 51st state BS. Unreal.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Hence my earlier points on the lack of trained business people within the inner circle of Team Red over the last 5yrs.

Except Carney ain't that guy.

At least, to start, I seriously think Kevin O'Leary might be someone we can use. He knows Trump, has broke bread with him. Understands manufacturing, economics, world markets and the problems on both side of the border. Has bought and sold billion dollar companies and understands what makes them work. He has voiced a preference for a strong, homogeneous economic union with the US.

He certainly has a more intelligent view of things than anyone in the trudeau fold.

 

[Kirkhill]

Those are possible. I could see supply management being on the table. Pretty sure the US already had freedom of movement in northern waters but could be wrong. US banks already have access. Not keen on private banks coming in.

Private banks have been a big part of Canada's investment history.

The Coutts, Alberta border crossing of trucker fame is associated with one, as is the town of Lethbridge. They backed the Galt family.

Home

Coutts offers private banking and wealth management services, with the human touch. With us, it’s personal.

www.coutts.com

Coutts - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Here is one of their long time competitors.

C. Hoare & Co. | private bank

C. Hoare & Co. is the UK’s oldest privately-owned bank. We provide a contemporary bespoke banking service based on deep personal relationships and long-held values.

www.hoaresbank.co.uk

C. Hoare & Co - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

....

If we are wanting to kickstart national infrastructure projects these are the types of people we might need. They are not conventional banks.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Revising from Friday my guess for the demands list:

• End of dairy supply management or other change to enable US participation in our market
• Relaxed Banking Regulation to allow US entrance to Canada
• USN granted blanket freedom of navigation in Canadian claimed territorial waters in the North
• Canada to write a cheque and get out of the way for a "joint" base at Nanasivik
• Canada to join in all US tariff and trade action against China
• Canada to join the US in tariffing all auto manufactured outside of our joint continental supply chain

I seldom agree with you, but those are all good possibilities.

Supply management is definitely on the table. It should be eliminated. Anyone who dumps millions of gallons of milk and dairy products to maintain their profits needs to go out of business. Especially when Canadians need financial help to buy simple staple items, the marketing boards are destroying for profit.

 

[Kirkhill]

Just 30 seconds ago he’s pushing this 51st state BS. Unreal.

And he has got you thinking about anything but the problem.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Just 30 seconds ago he’s pushing this 51st state BS. Unreal.

I don't see it as actual territorial ambition, moreso an "or else" - "play ball or the result will leave you wishing you were the 51st state"

 

[OldSolduer]

Impulsive moves like this, even before we know what's what, is not conducive to amicable discussion or negotiation.

Impulsive moves are quite often emotional moves - "we'll fucking show him eh troops" rather than "take a deep breath, have a look at this and lets see what the ramifications are"

I really think the Boston Pizza guy is better than O'Leary. Just my opinion.

 

[brihard]

Impulsive moves are quite often emotional moves - "we'll fucking show him eh troops" rather than "take a deep breath, have a look at this and lets see what the ramifications are"

I really think the Boston Pizza guy is better than O'Leary. Just my opinion.

I would be wondering if Ford and the Ontario government have in fact actually yet taken the formal steps to cancel any contract or issued any prohibition on contract bidding or if, like Trump, it’s simply an unequivocal communication that serious consequences will follow if some smartening up doesn’t occur? The public consumption version can be simpler and more direct, with backchannel comms that it’s conditional on what happens WRT tariffs- e.g., tariffs imposed at 10 am will mean a contract cancelled at 10:15.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Those are possible. I could see supply management being on the table. Pretty sure the US already had freedom of movement in northern waters but could be wrong. US banks already have access. Not keen on private banks coming in.

Tried to situate the estimate with things that- while I wouldn't love- would be tolerable and justifiable sacrifices. Added a 6th point after you quoted on non-NA auto tariffs.

Looking at the list- seems like a reasonable price to pay for a return to status quo ish. But we're not returning to status quo-ish, we're going into a new state of being that is more favourable to the US and cedes some major ground in our self-determination, as result of a shakedown. Depending on the ask(s) we might be at an inflection point where appeasement leaves us even more vulnerable in the future- and we now have to decide between the pain (and eventual payoff) of rebuilding an independent economy, or 100% embracing being the junior partner in fortress North America.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Except Carney ain't that guy.

At least, to start, I seriously think Kevin O'Leary might be someone we can use. He knows Trump, has broke bread with him. Understands manufacturing, economics, world markets and the problems on both side of the border. Has bought and sold billion dollar companies and understands what makes them work. He has voiced a preference for a strong, homogeneous economic union with the US.

He certainly has a more intelligent view of things than anyone in the trudeau fold.

Since Mulroney is no longer with us, Kevin might be the only other person available who has some credibility down there in those Republican circles.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Impulsive moves are quite often emotional moves - "we'll fucking show him eh troops" rather than "take a deep breath, have a look at this and lets see what the ramifications are"

I really think the Boston Pizza guy is better than O'Leary. Just my opinion.

Make them a team?

 

[OldSolduer]

I would be wondering if Ford and the Ontario government have in fact actually yet taken the formal steps to cancel any contract or issued any prohibition on contract bidding or if, like Trump, it’s simply an unequivocal communication that serious consequences will follow if some smartening up doesn’t occur? The public consumption version can be simpler and more direct, with backchannel comms that it’s conditional on what happens WRT tariffs- e.g., tariffs imposed at 10 am will mean a contract cancelled at 10:15.

Could be a combination of "we'll fucking show him eh troops?" and "lets see how far this guy will bend - someone find me some COAs please"

The first is for public consumption and the second is far more reasonable.

 

[OldSolduer]

Make them a team?

They were mates on Dragons Den.