CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Good2Golf]

Approve Northern Gateway, bring Energy East only as far as Sarina, since Ontario has no issue with Western Canadian Select, and then consume in Ontario. I’d also branch Energy East up to Churchill, so MB can participate in helping Alberta get its oil and gas to market.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

And there it is. The PM of Japan just announced from the podium, in the WH, that the US & Japan will be co-operating on the O&G file. There's one of Carney's customers gone. Thanks trudeau.

 

[Good2Golf]

And there it is. The PM of Japan just announced from the podium that the US & Japan will be co-operating on the O&G file. There's one of Carney's customers gone. Thanks trudeau/guilbeault…

Doesn’t mean Canada can’t pull its head out of its ass and also work with Japan (and other Asian countries), but that will clearly need Trudeau gone and Carney needs to signal that he won’t be an O&G hater after he’s appointed PM…

 

[The Bread Guy]

Approve Northern Gateway ...

Is the proponent even interested in resurrecting the project 9 years later? And would all the paperwork have to be done over again? Not questioning the need, just the private sector will at this point in time.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Approve Northern Gateway, bring Energy East only as far as Sarina, since Ontario has no issue with Western Canadian Select, and then consume in Ontario. I’d also branch Energy East up to Churchill, so MB can participate in helping Alberta get its oil and gas to market.

My goal would be to get it down east to Irving, then cut their shipments of foreign oil. Start cutting the heart out of the Laurentien Elites, whose fortunes are predicated on shares in foreign oil companies and countries.

Irving already gets it supply from tankers. Maybe those ships should just come from Churchhill

 

[Good2Golf]

Is the proponent even interested in resurrecting the project 9 years later? And would all the paperwork have to be done over again? Not questioning the need, just the private sector will at this point in time.

If a responsible government indicated it was supportive of appropriate energy investment, most likely. But what did industry see when JT & Co. rolled into town in 2015? Cancellations and policy of explicitly reducing Canada’s O&G output. I wouldn’t have bailed too. Canadian government needs to rebuild trust with the energy sector.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Iowa and Nebraska are going to be real happy. The US/ Japan just said they have a deal for ethanol also. That's made from corn if anyone didn't know that. O&G and now agriculture.

Japan has only been in the White House today for a few hours. Two energy deals waiting for contracts and logistics.

 

[Good2Golf]

My goal would be to get it down east to Irving, then cut their shipments of foreign oil. Start cutting the heart out of the Laurentien Elites, whose fortunes are predicated on shares in foreign oil companies and countries.

Irving already gets it supply from tankers. Maybe those ships should just come from Churchhill

I’d support Churchill-Saint John shipping. Shipping is safe. *It works for Quebec, so it’s gotta be okay for an MB-NB deal, right?

 

[foresterab]

Random thinking last night of past times in Northern Ontario.

What happens if Canada goes to the US and dusts off the old plans to expand the lock sizes for the St. Lawrence Seaway? This would be a bi-national win allowing for larger shipping direct into the US cities of Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, and others...

Now combine that with oil storage depot in Thunder Bay or Sault Ste. Marie (due to rail line bottlenecks there). Add a second into Churchill. I get that it won't be a Panamax sized super tanker but is it worth the expansion from 1950's era Great Lake shipping limits to help increase product flow?

TransMountain is public saying shipping costs for product down that line is around ~$10/barrel CAD.

There is currently ~$14/barrel USD difference between WCS (~59 USD) and WTI (~ 71 USD) oil grades or a 17% difference in savings. That's also the equivalent to $20 CAD. If you're comparing it to European Brent crude its' about 5% more at ~ 74 USD.

Even if you doubled your transportation costs for WCS to a terminal you're still 10% cheaper than WTI oil. How much infrastructure pays off if that is the price gain long term in both employment, revenue gains (royalties), market tolls, and increased taxes?

 

[McG]

Approve Northern Gateway, bring Energy East only as far as Sarina, since Ontario has no issue with Western Canadian Select, and then consume in Ontario. I’d also branch Energy East up to Churchill, so MB can participate in helping Alberta get its oil and gas to market.

Sarnia is an awkward location to reach as the pipeline must go through Michigan or (to stay in Canada) the long way around Lake Huron. Reasonable if the objective is to connect to existing refinery infrastructure. If the intent is just to put product on boats, maybe aim for Cornwall.

 

[Kirkhill]

View attachment 91058
An artist's conception of the proposed LNG floating liquefaction plant planned to be built near Kitimat, B.C. It is one of the 18 projects the provincial government plans to fast track. Photo by Cedar LNG

Amid U.S. tariff threat, B.C. to fast-track 18 mining and energy projects worth $20B

The list includes mining projects criticized by First Nations groups in B.C. and Alaska, and an LNG project opposed by environmentalists

nationalpost.com

View attachment 91061
Prodigy Clean Energy and its partners hope to produce floating nuclear power stations that, like in this illustration, could dock in remote Arctic communities and supply less emissions-intensive power than the diesel-fired plants they use now.Supplied by Prodigy Clean Energy

Can floating nuclear power plants help solve Northern Canada’s energy woes?

Diesel is the only way to keep the lights on in many remote Arctic towns. A new project wants to offer a greener option – but first it has to assuage safety and cost concerns and compete with renewables

www.theglobeandmail.com

So, if they can contemplate floating SMRs behind berm in ice-infested arctic waters why not float an LNG plant off shore in Hudson's or James Bay? With or without the SMR?

....

Extend the shipping season

View attachment 91062

Double Acting Tanker. The Christophe de Margerie-class ice-breaking LNG carriers are built by DSME (Daewo Shipbuilding Marine Engineering) for the Yamal LNG project. Image courtesy of Dmitrii Lobusov​

View attachment 91063

Double Acting Tanker Tempera in ice condition 1​

....

A response to a niggle....

I am a fan of the Hudson's Bay route. I have been challenged as to the practicability of the route and technology and the associated risk.

Which got me to thinking about Dome Pete (Dome Petroleum) and their operations in the Beaufort and the Mackenzie Delta in the 1970s (1950-1988)



We used to have the know-how.



Jack Gallagher: By Unknown - Original publication: Unknown Immediate source: Glenbow Museum, Fair use, File:Jack Gallagher (oilman).jpg - Wikipedia

Vard Marine's 40th: Our Origins Part 1

In honour of our 40th anniversary, we thought it would be fitting to go back to our roots and tell the untold story of how Vard Marine came to be. It is a tale of our company before it was known as Vard Marine, a tale of hardship and failure but also of hope and success, and a tale of the significan

www.linkedin.com

 

[Good2Golf]

Sarnia is an awkward location to reach as the pipeline must go through Michigan or (to stay in Canada) the long way around Lake Huron. Reasonable if the objective is to connect to existing refinery infrastructure. If the intent is just to put product on boats, maybe aim for Cornwall.

Let’s do both…pipeline curving back around to Sarnia (refining for internal consumer consumption in Ontario) and ALSO extending to Cornwall (transshipping to NB and exporting Eastward).

 

[Czech_pivo]

Putting this onto the pile of chips - cost of entry into the US market?

Missile-defence system for all of North America ‘makes sense’: Blair

U.S. President planning ‘Iron Dome’ shield for United States

www.theglobeandmail.com

Breaking Defense on "Iron Dome USA (NORAD?)"

Exclusive: Here's who Hegseth may task to put together Trump's Iron Dome plan - Breaking Defense

Under the draft, by Feb. 28 the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, DoD components, military departments, combatant commands and the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) are to put together three "scalable reference architectures" for "small, medium and large options" for the shield using "kinetic...

breakingdefense.com

The secret to delivering Trump’s Iron Dome program - Breaking Defense

Charles Beames lays out how the Iron Dome for America project needs to be structured in order for it to be successful.

breakingdefense.com

...

It's late in the day, but it is movement in the right direction as far as I am concerned.

That was on my Bingo Card - Ballistic Missile Defence for Canada

 

[Czech_pivo]

Doesn’t mean Canada can’t pull its head out of its ass and also work with Japan (and other Asian countries), but that will clearly need Trudeau gone and Carney needs to signal that he won’t be an O&G hater after he’s appointed PM…

Trade CDN oil/gas for Subs with the South Koreans - win for both sides.

 

[Czech_pivo]

That was on my Bingo Card - Ballistic Missile Defence for Canada

Next up - AUKUS

 

[Kirkhill]

Trump hails ‘cherished alliance’ with Japan after gas deal​

Donald Trump has expressed confidence that America’s relationship with Japan will flourish after he agreed a major energy deal the Asian economy.

Japan will soon begin importing a record amount of new shipments of American liquefied natural gas, he said.

“We’ve opened the sale of LNG immediately,” he said. “Japan in particular, we’re very happy that they’re going to start immediately,” he said.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Japan was also interested in importing bio ethanol, ammonia and other resources at what he called a stable price.

Last year, Joe Biden blocked new permits for LNG exports, a move cheered by climate activists.

The business case for Canadian LNG. Sell natural gas to the Americans and let them profit from its sale to Japan.

In 2022, total annual U.S. natural gas exports were 6.90 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)—

In 2022, total annual U.S. natural gas imports were about 3.02 Tcf (8.28 Bcf/d), which was about 8% more than in 2021 and the highest volume since 2017. Some of this imported natural gas may have been exported.

In 2022, about 99% of U.S. total annual natural gas imports were from Canada and nearly all by pipeline.

Natural gas imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sources of U.S. natural gas imports and destinations of U.S. natural gas exports, and import and export volumes by pipelines and trucks and as LNG.

www.eia.gov

US exported 7 Tcf of Natural Gas after buying 3 Tcf of Natural Gas from Canada.

The US had a surplus of 4 Tcf. They didn't need our 3 Tcf. That merely added to their surplus available to export at a profit.

Gas sells at 16.60 in the Netherlands (TTF) and 14.52 in Japan.
The market price in the US 3.31
The market price in Canada is 2.09.

The US can buy Canadian gas cheaper than they can produce it themselves and pocket the change.

Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com

Oilprices from around the world.

oilprice.com

 

[Good2Golf]

Trump hails ‘cherished alliance’ with Japan after gas deal​

Donald Trump has expressed confidence that America’s relationship with Japan will flourish after he agreed a major energy deal the Asian economy.

Japan will soon begin importing a record amount of new shipments of American liquefied natural gas, he said.

“We’ve opened the sale of LNG immediately,” he said. “Japan in particular, we’re very happy that they’re going to start immediately,” he said.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Japan was also interested in importing bio ethanol, ammonia and other resources at what he called a stable price.

Last year, Joe Biden blocked new permits for LNG exports, a move cheered by climate activists.

Almost as happy as he was after that fantastic deal he championed with his exemplary negotiating skills with Canada and Mexico, back in 2018.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The business case for Canadian LNG. Sell natural gas to the Americans and let them profit from its sale to Japan.

Natural gas imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Sources of U.S. natural gas imports and destinations of U.S. natural gas exports, and import and export volumes by pipelines and trucks and as LNG.

www.eia.gov

US exported 7 Tcf of Natural Gas after buying 3 Tcf of Natural Gas from Canada.

The US had a surplus of 4 Tcf. They didn't need our 3 Tcf. That merely added to their surplus available to export at a profit.

Gas sells at 16.60 in the Netherlands (TTF) and 14.52 in Japan.
The market price in the US 3.31
The market price in Canada is 2.09.

The US can buy Canadian gas cheaper than they can produce it themselves and pocket the change.

Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com

Oilprices from around the world.

oilprice.com

But isn't that where we are with our crude oil?

We'll have to do something. Even when PP gains power, it'll take years for us to catch up on infrastructure alone. Is the world willing to wait while we fiddle and fuck around?

 

[lenaitch]

Sarnia is an awkward location to reach as the pipeline must go through Michigan or (to stay in Canada) the long way around Lake Huron. Reasonable if the objective is to connect to existing refinery infrastructure. If the intent is just to put product on boats, maybe aim for Cornwall.

It would also depend on whether Sarnia has spare capacity and, if not, is their room for expansion (I doubt it - they're pretty hemmed in). There is also Nanticoke. I don't know about their capacity or space to expand.

Building a refinery from scratch is about $10Bn and would probably take a decade (although probably cheaper and shorter than expanding the Seaway). Do we build on as a nation (I thought PET's PetroCan was a bad idea) or expect the private market to build one which, up until now, none seem too interested. Maybe the people that fund and build these things don't see the long term return.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It would also depend on whether Sarnia has spare capacity and, if not, is their room for expansion (I doubt it - they're pretty hemmed in). There is also Nanticoke. I don't know about their capacity or space to expand.

Building a refinery from scratch is about $10Bn and would probably take a decade (although probably cheaper and shorter than expanding the Seaway). Do we build on as a nation (I thought PET's PetroCan was a bad idea) or expect the private market to build one which, up until now, none seem too interested. Maybe the people that fund and build these things don't see the long term return.

Betcha if you gave Irving a piece of it they could build it faster than they build our ships.