Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[McG]

I’d love to hear from those closer to the spreadsheets on that too. My intuitive guess is yes because they report to the defence minister, but happy to be corrected.

The latest report on NATO spending dropped just before the weekend: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2025/8/pdf/250827-def-exp-2025-en.pdf

Page 16 makes clear what coast guard costs can be counted. It doesn't matter if it is or is not part of a defence budget. The only coast guard costs that can be counted toward the 3.5% GDP are expenditures "only in proportion to the forces that are trained in military tactics, are equipped as a military force, can operate under direct military authority in deployed operations, and can, realistically, be deployed outside national territory in support of a military force."

That "deployed outside national territory in support of a military force" element could be satisfied as part of a combined task force in the Caribbean or the waters of Greenland. So, Canada could check that box without putting the coast guard on operations on the far side of the Atlantic. But, I have not seen indications that the CCG will be trained in military tactics or equipped as a military force.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The latest report on NATO spending dropped just before the weekend: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2025/8/pdf/250827-def-exp-2025-en.pdf

Page 16 makes clear what coast guard costs can be counted. It doesn't matter if it is or is not part of a defence budget. The only coast guard costs that can be counted toward the 3.5% GDP are expenditures "only in proportion to the forces that are trained in military tactics, are equipped as a military force, can operate under direct military authority in deployed operations, and can, realistically, be deployed outside national territory in support of a military force."

That "deployed outside national territory in support of a military force" element could be satisfied as part of a combined task force in the Caribbean or the waters of Greenland. So, Canada could check that box without putting the coast guard on operations on the far side of the Atlantic. But, I have not seen indications that the CCG will be trained in military tactics or equipped as a military force.

I was asking about the CSE thing, but thanks for this re: how MUCH of the Coast Guard $ contributes to Canada's NATO table stakes.

And I suspect that bit I highlighted in yellow may eventually come to pass, too, if it hasn't already.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Mic drop by Davie on the CDC.

Have a read of Noah’s page for more info.

 

[Furniture]

Mic drop by Davie on the CDC.

Have a read of Noah’s page for more info.

Est-ce qu'il y a un link?

 

[brihard]

Est-ce qu'il y a un link?

Voila: Davie shows first look at potential CDC candidate.

 

[daftandbarmy]

The latest report on NATO spending dropped just before the weekend: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2025/8/pdf/250827-def-exp-2025-en.pdf

Page 16 makes clear what coast guard costs can be counted. It doesn't matter if it is or is not part of a defence budget. The only coast guard costs that can be counted toward the 3.5% GDP are expenditures "only in proportion to the forces that are trained in military tactics, are equipped as a military force, can operate under direct military authority in deployed operations, and can, realistically, be deployed outside national territory in support of a military force."

That "deployed outside national territory in support of a military force" element could be satisfied as part of a combined task force in the Caribbean or the waters of Greenland. So, Canada could check that box without putting the coast guard on operations on the far side of the Atlantic. But, I have not seen indications that the CCG will be trained in military tactics or equipped as a military force.

So we're screwed, right?

 

[OldSolduer]

What will this actually mean? What’s the ‘so what’ in real national defence terms?

We slag the RCN just a bit less.

 

[Underway]

The cost of running the Coast Guard can be wrapped into our 2-5% NATO contribution?
Creative book keeping by the banker?

Its' been included to some extent since Harper agreed to 2% in 2014. Now they are spending the money on upgrades and changing the mission to make it match the accounting. Radar upgrades and secure comms mean they can properly perform the surveillance and intelligence gathering mission. Which directly feeds the beast in Trinity and NORAD

That "deployed outside national territory in support of a military force" element could be satisfied as part of a combined task force in the Caribbean or the waters of Greenland. So, Canada could check that box without putting the coast guard on operations on the far side of the Atlantic. But, I have not seen indications that the CCG will be trained in military tactics or equipped as a military force.

If they are equipped with Crypto, use high level radars and are trained to report contacts and intelligence correctly, then yes, they are trained in (para)military tactics. It's not super high speed by any sense. but meets the minimum definition.

CCG is pretty much a rounding error in the 2% reach though. Which given its actual capabilities and expectations I wouldn't think that its a big cost.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Mic drop by Davie on the CDC.

Have a read of Noah’s page for more info.

A CDC with ice class, frees up the RCD for Pacific and Atlantic, while the CDC support the AOP's. Not the biggest fan of Davie, but if they can pull off a ice class CDC without giving up to much for that, then I can support it.

 

[Underway]

A CDC with ice class, frees up the RCD for Pacific and Atlantic, while the CDC support the AOP's. Not the biggest fan of Davie, but if they can pull off a ice class CDC without giving up to much for that, then I can support it.

Standby for Seaspan to come out with their ship. Right now these are all essentially skins for a video game. Also that 120 is likely the Arctic Amphib they were talking about not a version of the CDC.

 

[YZT580]

Standby for Seaspan to come out with their ship. Right now these are all essentially skins for a video game. Also that 120 is likely the Arctic Amphib they were talking about not a version of the CDC.

and the delivery date from Davie would be??? They were selected to produce ice breakers and that alone should keep them busy for the next decade or more. They have positioned themselves really well for that but introducing a second line will only delay the first. If they have any spare yard time they can use it to fill international orders: they have purchased the reputation and the facilities to be the go-to yard for that. Maybe they should start building ice-capable freighters and tankers to meet the requirements for Churchill and other northern ports

 

[McG]

Maybe they should start building ice-capable freighters and tankers to meet the requirements for Churchill and other northern ports

Normally, in a capitalist market, companies supply things for which demand exists. Who is clamouring to buy ice-capable freighters?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Normally, in a capitalist market, companies supply things for which demand exists. Who is clamouring to buy ice-capable freighters?

Normally industry clamours for the government to provide the infrastructure and then tax benefits, prior to committing to a project and then says "Oh we could have done it better", but they didn't when they had the opportunity.

 

[KevinB]

Normally industry clamours for the government to provide the infrastructure and then tax benefits, prior to committing to a project and then says "Oh we could have done it better", but they didn't when they had the opportunity.

That and @McG ’s post sums up the difference between Canada and the US as far as business approaches quite well.

 

[Kilted]

Now that the CCG is part of DND, it is likely only a matter of time before we eventually see them merged into the CAF. The government may few times before it happens, but I think that we will eventually see it.

 

[KevinB]

Now that the CCG is part of DND, it is likely only a matter of time before we eventually see them merged into the CAF. The government may few times before it happens, but I think that we will eventually see it.

Doubt, while Canada doesn't have laws about the CAF conducting Law Enforcement activities, moving them into the CAF would probably not be something the RCN wants or the CCG wants. Umbrella under DND makes sense for a lot of reasons, but making it a specific Armed Service would create a lot of issues with the unions me thinks...

 

[Kilted]

Doubt, while Canada doesn't have laws about the CAF conducting Law Enforcement activities, moving them into the CAF would probably not be something the RCN wants or the CCG wants. Umbrella under DND makes sense for a lot of reasons, but making it a specific Armed Service would create a lot of issues with the unions me thinks...

Well, once it was merged, the union would exist anymore, or it would be an illegal organization.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Now that the CCG is part of DND, it is likely only a matter of time before we eventually see them merged into the CAF. The government may few times before it happens, but I think that we will eventually see it.

My nephew worked for the Regional director of Pacific region, CCG is coming over to DND as a SOA and still must provide vessels for DFO and Science who are their primary clients. I foresee a clash of cultures for the next few years as "This is the way we do thing things" meets "We have always done it this way"