Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

[Brad Sallows]

Probably lose a lot more than most people realize. The overspend for the deficit decade from '75 to '86 was about $70B; by the time of the 2008 recession total debt servicing charges were over $1T (yes, trillion). All nominal dollars, not adjusted, but a heckuva lot to pay for not very much additional spending.

 

[Blackadder1916]

A glimpse into the future of voting patterns, perhaps?

Student Vote Canada

studentvote.ca

Students elect Liberal minority government in national student parallel election​

More than 750,000 elementary and high school students across the country participated in Student Vote Canada, coinciding with the 2021 federal election.
After learning about democracy and elections, researching the parties and platforms, and debating the future of the country, students cast their ballots for the official candidates running in their school’s electoral district.
In total, 769,049 votes were reported from 5,674 schools, with results reported from all 338 federal electoral districts.

• The Liberal Party won 116 seats and 24% of the popular vote, forming a minority government. Justin Trudeau won in his seat in the riding of Papineau, QC.
• The NDP won 106 seats and took 29% of the popular vote, forming the official opposition. Jagmeet Singh won his seat in the riding of Burnaby South, BC.
• The Conservative Party won 92 seats and 25% of the popular vote. Erin O’Toole won his seat in the riding of Durham, ON.
• The Bloc Québecois won 20 seats and took 2% of the popular vote. Yves-François Blanchet lost his seat in the riding of Beloeil—Chambly, QC.
• The Green Party won 3 seats and 10% of the popular vote. Annamie Paul lost her seat in the riding of Toronto Centre, ON.

View the complete national results, results by riding, and results by school by visiting: https://studentvote.ca/results/canada2021

 

[Altair]

What is it that you think viable means?

Capable of winning the most seats of all parties and thus have a chance of winning the election.

I don't think a party that gets shut out of the 3 largest cities in Canada and is starting to lose the Urban centers of Alberta is viable.

 

[MilEME09]

Capable of winning the most seats of all parties and thus have a chance of winning the election.

I don't think a party that gets shut out of the 3 largest cities in Canada and is starting to lose the Urban centers of Alberta is viable.

This election should be a wakeup call to the CPC that they can't have their cake and eat it too. You can't try and cater to your old base and try to be centrist. Something has to be cut out in order to accommodate the shift. They need a consistent leader though, and know it's a minority again with another election in 18 months, the CPC can't afford another leadership race and a green leader, it's a recipe for a loss.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

When they are ready, Poliviere and/or Lewis will be formidable opponents. Pierre already has recognition and I suspect O'Toole will give a fair amount of exposure to Leslyn.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... I suspect O'Toole will give a fair amount of exposure to Leslyn.

A good presentation and good speaker, but he might be hesitant about being tooooooooooooooooo so-con forward, too (based on what he did during the election). It'll be interesting to see Team Blue's upcoming team picks re: critics/shadow cabinet.

 

[Haggis]

When they are ready, Poliviere and/or Lewis will be formidable opponents. Pierre already has recognition and I suspect O'Toole will give a fair amount of exposure to Leslyn.

Polievre is opposition leadership material, not prime minster material. He can do more damage to the LPC as O'Toole's diplomatic pitbull. Lewis is too conservative to be a successful CPC leader against Trudeau..

 

[FJAG]

How much has Canada’s military actually deterred the enemy? Deterrence, in our case, is achieved through our alliances. Also, given that since 1812, there hasn’t been a persistent, credible threat to Canada (or at least perceived), there is no interest, politically, to do more than the minimum necessary to keep our allies happy and our alliances intact.

We've had several credible threats to Canada the most relevant being the Fenian raids in 1866 and 1870-1 which were serious enough to trigger confederation as a defensive measure. At the time we had a standing Militia which reacted to the invasion and, despite mixed results, basically protected the nation. The latter invasion also was the root cause of why Canada created a permanent full-time standing force.

Again, the events in Manitoba a few years later required an emergency force to be sent out and protect the country. Even the formation of the North West Mounted Police was designed to protect Canada's western territories from incursions by Americans. Similar events in Mexico a few decades earlier resulted in Mexico loosing Texas and other territories to rambunctious Yanks who were in an expansionist mood.

The fact that it's quiet right now is a blessing but, deterrence is always necessary. What the "minimum necessary" is, is very subjective. If its to "keep our allies happy" then undoubtedly the minimum necessary is based on their subjective opinion. Right now our more important allies think we are freeloaders and they aren't happy with us. Whatever brownie points we might have earned in Germany and Bosnia and during Afghanistan are fast fading.

 

[Good2Golf]

Well, I guess we could just buy from a proven producer like Sikorsky. Their products arrive on time, on budget and meet the tech specs, right?

That’s a facile view of things.

That was a Liberal Government-induced fiasco to save Jean Chretien’s reputation from a huberistic and arrogant decision to cancel the EH-101. Paul Martin just benevolently and mistakenly tried to protect his father’s arch enemy’s reputation and ordered a “close enough” solution…the precursor to the “35-year old used Aussie Hornets solution” to a non-problem.

 

[dapaterson]

My entirely cynical view is that the Aussie Hornet purchase is all about keeping lines open with L3 in Mirabel.

 

[daftandbarmy]

My entirely cynical view is that the Aussie Hornet purchase is all about keeping lines open with L3 in Mirabel.

 

[brihard]

Polievre is opposition leadership material, not prime minster material. He can do more damage to the LPC as O'Toole's diplomatic pitbull. Lewis is too conservative to be a successful CPC leader against Trudeau..

I believe you’re right. Poilievre is a parliamentary bulldog, and gets some good sound bytes. He’s a skilled Parliamentarian. I’m not convinced he’s sell himself outside of the party.

Lewis is a So Con. Choosing her would bring in more of the votes the CPC doesn’t need, and throw away a lot more that it does. It would be a demographic regression, trading away younger votes for older ones. Want to throw away the centrists you’ve been fighting hard to bring onboard? That’s how you do it. I and many others would absolutely not vote for a CPC with an avowed Social Conservative at the helm. It would not be trustworthy.

Canada has shifted culturally and socially to be somewhat more progressive with the newest generation of voters. That must be taken into account. A lot of us miss progressive conservatism, and are happy to see a shift in that direction within the party under O’Toole.

 

[Good2Golf]

My entirely cynical view is that the Aussie Hornet purchase is all about keeping lines open with L3 in Mirabel.

That was a secondary effect.

The primary raison d’etre was to appear to be doing something to the state of the existing Hornet fleet that would take the heat off having to make a real decision about FFCP…

 

[MilEME09]

Canada has shifted culturally and socially to be somewhat more progressive with the newest generation of voters. That must be taken into account. A lot of us miss progressive conservatism, and are happy to see a shift in that direction within the party under O’Toole.

I think the fact the west was a fight between the CPC and NDP except a few ridings of CPC vs LPC, it shows a shift in Canada as younger canadians are getting out to vote, and coming of voting age with different values and outlooks on what they want for canada.

 

[Altair]

I believe you’re right. Poilievre is a parliamentary bulldog, and gets some good sound bytes. He’s a skilled Parliamentarian. I’m not convinced he’s sell himself outside of the party.

Lewis is a So Con. Choosing her would bring in more of the votes the CPC doesn’t need, and throw away a lot more that it does. It would be a demographic regression, trading away younger votes for older ones. Want to throw away the centrists you’ve been fighting hard to bring onboard? That’s how you do it. I and many others would absolutely not vote for a CPC with an avowed Social Conservative at the helm. It would not be trustworthy.

Canada has shifted culturally and socially to be somewhat more progressive with the newest generation of voters. That must be taken into account. A lot of us miss progressive conservatism, and are happy to see a shift in that direction within the party under O’Toole.

I'm very torn.

As a proud two time PPC voter, I want O'Toole to stay on so the PPC can continue to absorb disillusioned CPC voters.

On the other hand, if they pick a Leslyn Lewis type and go hard for the PPC vote, that leave the LPC in the advantageous position of being the not scary center party.

I feel like the former is has more staying power.

 

[MilEME09]

I'm very torn.

As a proud two time PPC voter, I want O'Toole to stay on so the PPC can continue to absorb disillusioned CPC voters.

On the other hand, if they pick a Leslyn Lewis type and go hard for the PPC vote, that leave the LPC in the advantageous position of being the not scary center party.

I feel like the former is has more staying power.

The creation of the PPC has created the blue divorce, the CPC as long as O'Toole remains leader will continue to shift to the center to be more attractive to left and right of center voters. There is far more votes to be gained there, then there is catering to the far right and the PPC. The CPC has 18 months until we will likely see another election, in that time the CPC needs a new strategy for the GTA, Montreal, and Vancover, if they can't make inroads in those areas, they have no chance.

 

[Altair]

The creation of the PPC has created the blue divorce, the CPC as long as O'Toole remains leader will continue to shift to the center to be more attractive to left and right of center voters. There is far more votes to be gained there, then there is catering to the far right and the PPC. The CPC has 18 months until we will likely see another election, in that time the CPC needs a new strategy for the GTA, Montreal, and Vancover, if they can't make inroads in those areas, they have no chance.

The CPC took a big step towards the center, but they are not quite there yet.

They need to stop being scary when it comes to abortion, and if that means whipping votes it means whipping votes.

They need to stop trying to undo LPC gun regulations. Just maintain the status quo.

They need to fully embrace fighting climate change. Reducing emissions targets is not going to fly in urban Canada. And leave the carbon tax alone, carbon credits it tacky. Look at the UK Conservative party and their climate crusade as a inspiration. In comparison, O'Toole and the CPC not once tweeted about climate. They definitely tweeted a lot about other topics.

And once childcare is in place, leave it alone.

Pretty much challenge/copy the LPC platform with a less tainted leader than Trudeau.

I think most of the country is more or less in line with what the LPC is proposing, at least in the urban centers, but are sick of Trudeau at this point.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

I kinda just have one question through all this.....so will all those that said during years 2016 to 2020 that President Trump shouldn't be Prez because he lost the popular vote now stand up and say the same thing about PM Trudeau??

Rhetorical...dont answer please

 

[Brad Sallows]

Capable of winning the most seats of all parties and thus have a chance of winning the election.

So, just something you made up, then.

 

[ballz]

The issues surrounding urban centres and their "affordability" reminds me very much of the issues Newfoundland faces.... except in the opposite direction.

That province is bleeding money trying to support people who feel entitled to live in a completely unsustainable living situation, and outnumber those in urban centres, and so the government panders to these little outports including some absolutely dirt policies such as providing a grant to these little towns to pay people to do nothing for 14 weeks so they can get EI for the rest of the year.

We see the same thing except it's Toronto. The country is literally subsidizing people who choose to live in Toronto despite how unsustainably unaffordable is. You like city living but don't want to pay Toronto or Vancouver prices? Move to Calgary or Edmonton. Don't like that idea? Why should everyone else have to pay for personal (stupid) choices?