Hybrid Electric Vehicles

[Good2Golf]

I'm waiting for the R3X which was demoed.

You could put a reservation on the R2 and pivot your reservation into the R3X when it starts taking reservations. My neighbor reserved his R1T 2-1/2 years ago, so an R3X will be a while out.

 

[ytz]

You could put a reservation on the R2 and pivot your reservation into the R3X when it starts taking reservations. My neighbor reserved his R1T 2-1/2 years ago, so an R3X will be a while out.

Or I could wait for the R3X launch while I payoff my current car and then simply buy one when it's readily available and I have the room to make car payments. I like cars. But I also like not having more car payments than I need. Admittedly an old fashioned trait given how many people these days are happy to just lease in perpetuity.

 

[Good2Golf]

Or I could wait for the R3X launch while I payoff my current car and then simply buy one when it's readily available and I have the room to make car payments. I like cars. But I also like not having more car payments than I need. Admittedly an old fashioned trait given how many people these days are happy to just lease in perpetuity.

Yeah, not a lease fan either, I tend to be that drive-pay it off-give it a funeral kind of guy. I have to say, the R1T looks really nice…if my travel reqr wanes, I would give another look at a R1T (or R2 if it’s available then).

 

[childs56]

Can't beat the cost savings. And whoever electrifies first can use the savings to undercut competitors.

Once the subsidies go away (which they are) the costs start piling up. The average citizen realizes they don't have the money to buy, operate and maintain one.

And that number will be substantially higher by 2035 (the year I originally stated). They are basically replacing vehicles 1:1 as they retire them. Obviously it's going to take a decade.

Not really, but sort of in a round about way. Most of the large fleets of delivery are running electric motorcycles and or three wheelers over seas. Great idea, but far from the replacement of 1 for 1 your talking about. That's an entire discussion on economics and geographic locations.

As I've consistently said before, nobody needs to answer these questions on here.

If your trying to convince the "heads" or lack of competent people here of any part of your discussion these are questions the avrage joe is asking. Has yet to be given an answer by those "experts" out there.
I have a couple of friends who work for BC Hydro at the executive level. They jumped on the green band wagon themselves. But they actually do not know how with current power production and current future projects they have planned are going to be able to provide power for all the vehicle chargers, let alone all the electric powered heat pumps. To the point they have asked for slow down if not stop to many of the plans of the BC government going forward with their elimination of ICE vehicles. When asked about the installation of power lines and sub stations, they were pretty mute on the point.

Nor are most of the folks here even capable of competently discussing the issue.

LOL.

I have a graduate certificate in the topic, that I did on side, during a sponsored PG at an American service academy. And even I'm not going to pretend to answer with 100% certainty.

All one has to do is look at current infrastructure installed, limits of power generation currently. Compare that to what is required for new house builds requiring heat pumps, double that for vehicle chargers and one is in the ball park. Then look at the Peak load of the system, one has to wonder how many brownouts there will be in the near future.

I am sure I'm the only one here who has actually spent time studying the topic, listening to the scientists and technologists developing the tech and getting the guest lectures from those utility CEOs to see how they view these topics.

Assumptions are funny aren't they. I don't doubt your expertise in the matter, but I tend to sway away from those who stand to gain substantially from these projects. those technologists and scientists are similar to an Architect who design a house/ building. Looks great, works well on the simulations. Until you put it all together and piece A doesn't fit into piece D with out re doing C,D,E,F and G. those weren't accounted for in the original build. He was a design architect not a electrical, fluid engineer.

And if they aren't worried about the types of questions you posted, I don't see why I should be. As pointed out before, it takes 20+ years for a car fleet to roll over. The demand draw is on average about the same as a home AC unit. Utilities have expanded to meet demand before. And they'll do it again.

I am curious where you got your figure on 20 years for car fleets to roll over. Electric vehicle's have been around for 100 years, I guess were a bit slow on that roll over.
The Green movement is the only reason why many are switching over.

I'm sure you're particularly interested in sensible discussion.

Many others on here also.

I mean the circle jerk here really speaks to intellectual openness.

It's alright. Let's just watch the market. And we'll see who's right in 5 years and 10 years.

Forced, needed or wanted. Difference in how things move.

If you want something thought provoking watch this:

When I have time I will look at that.

 

[ytz]

Once the subsidies go away (which they are) the costs start piling up.

The starting assumption of all critics. Based on their perspective from here. And fundamentally misunderstanding how volume pricing works. We now have decades worth of data that shows for every doubling of global battery manufacturing capacity, the price drops about 8%. This is a classic learning curve (Wright's Law). The subsidies have aimed to increase production to bring prices down here to the same level as China by matching volumes in the West. Our subsidies go away and all that happens is that our prices stay where they are. It doesn't move global battery price trends. The Rest of the World will keep building battery plants and cutting prices.

Not really, but sort of in a round about way. Most of the large fleets of delivery are running electric motorcycles and or three wheelers over seas. Great idea, but far from the replacement of 1 for 1 your talking about. That's an entire discussion on economics and geographic locations.

Not sure what your point is. A switch from a motorcycle to an electric one is still a switch. And the fact that they are already at 38% for last mile, going to 60% by 2030 for all their last mile operations around the world should tell you something. This is a company that literally bought a company that made electric delivery vehicles to ensure they had a steady supply in Europe.

I tend to sway away from those who stand to gain substantially from these projects

Yes yes. The modern world where everybody is their own doctor, own home inspector, own lawyer, own virologist, etc.

I am curious where you got your figure on 20 years for car fleets to roll over.

The average car is on the road for 10.5 years in Canada and 12.6 years in the US.

Why’s Canadian average vehicle age so low? - Auto Service World

And there are real dangers being posed to the Canadian auto care sector specifically with this trend

www.autoserviceworld.com

So even if we hit 100% electric sales tomorrow, it would take 10-15 years to convert the fleet on the road. And since adoption will be faster in some vehicle categories than others (say faster in sedans than pickups), it will naturally mean that conversion will take 20-30 years. Ergo, this panic over the grid supposedly collapsing because everybody will switch to an EV overnight is ignorant chicken little nonsense.

 

[ytz]

...

 

[childs56]

The starting assumption of all critics. Based on their perspective from here. And fundamentally misunderstanding how volume pricing works. We now have decades worth of data that shows for every doubling of global battery manufacturing capacity, the price drops about 8%. This is a classic learning curve (Wright's Law).

LOL, yet vehicle prices across the board have increased.

The subsidies have aimed to increase production to bring prices down here to the same level as China by matching volumes in the West.

LOL, matching volumes seems silly.

Our subsidies go away and all that happens is that our prices stay where they are.

out of the price range for most, coupled with the actual cost of usage will limit those further. With out extremely large subsidies the electric vehicle market is a no go for many consumers. We are seeing the trend in Europe of plummeting electric vehicle sales due to the loss of subsidies.

It doesn't move global battery price trends. The Rest of the World will keep building battery plants and cutting prices.

If you say so. Any trend I have witnessed with my pocket book over the past 40 years has been increases to products, not decreases.

Not sure what your point is. A switch from a motorcycle to an electric one is still a switch. And the fact that they are already at 38% for last mile, going to 60% by 2030 for all their last mile operations around the world should tell you something. This is a company that literally bought a company that made electric delivery vehicles to ensure they had a steady supply in Europe.

It tells me they are heavily subsidized at this point. I wonder once the real cost beyond the subsidies disappear what their cost reward shall be.
I have read a few of reports from the big courier companies on operating costs that make you wonder why the switch. Until you read the parts on subsidies and environmental speech. It does not make sense over all.
Things like switching from using vans to smaller three wheel vehicles and motorcycles does in congested cities. Those plans have been on the books for decades before the electric car frenzy. What made them viable is governments allowing many import vehicles into their countries as part of the green wave. The down side is the disposal of such vehicles at their end of useful life cycle.

Yes yes. The modern world where everybody is their own doctor, own home inspector, own lawyer, own virologist, etc.

WTF are you even talking about? It has been proven time and time again. If your pay check relies on saying yes it will work, then it will work 99 out of 100 with a probable error of +10% you will say it will work.
If you realize the reasons it wont work and bring those concerns forward, then the boss says here is another $100,000,000 to make it work. You will come back with it definitely works. Even though it still has issues and needs other supports. But hey you got your money. time and research out of the project you need for the time being. (you usually go work for the other guy making the things to make the original project work).

The average car is on the road for 10.5 years in Canada and 12.6 years in the US.

Why’s Canadian average vehicle age so low? - Auto Service World

And there are real dangers being posed to the Canadian auto care sector specifically with this trend

www.autoserviceworld.com

So even if we hit 100% electric sales tomorrow, it would take 10-15 years to convert the fleet on the road.

That is a hard metric to look at. The big cities in Canada have stated they will be ICE free by 2025, then 2030, then 2035. As a person who lives in one of those cities I would be avoiding buying anything ICE while the local government gets their poop in a group.

I disagree with it taking 10-15 years to convert over. 5 years max if they really could make it work. But they can't for a number of reasons.
1. people don't want it
2. people cant afford the cars to replace what they currently own to downgrade performance.
3. people don't care
4. people are not going to spend the money to upgrade their house.
5. people are not going to pay significantly more tax's to upgrade the electrical system required for every home to be able to charge their cars. When they are already facing brownouts through out critical times of the year.
6. Government has no clue how to actually make it work.
7. Dreams to convert over to a completely environmentally friendly source of transportation such as fully electric vehicles are just dreams.

And since adoption will be faster in some vehicle categories than others (say faster in sedans than pickups), it will naturally mean that conversion will take 20-30 years.

Ergo, this panic over the grid supposedly collapsing because everybody will switch to an EV overnight is ignorant chicken little nonsense.

When the grid and infrastructure is already taxed and limits placed on heat pumps and vehicle chargers. Is not chicken little ignorance. It is called reality.
One part of the equation the "experts" placed little to any value in. They thought if we build it, they will come. It didn't happen, then the experts tried to force us. Still has not happened. Its almost as if the experts had an agenda with no plan. Go figure a bunch of engineers, scientists and experts sitting around a table coming up with what's best for me and my environment. Forgetting the basis of what they need to make it happen. Power generation and transmission.
Who would have thought in order to charge an electric car you would need to install wires and stuff.

Pretty funny when during high power demands the utility providers and government are asking people to stop charging their cars and turn off their A/C and or heating.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The effects of subsidies (of anything) are straightforward. When demand-side subsidies (ie. for buyers) are removed, demand drops. Suppliers have options, including reduced prices, reduced production, shaved costs, acceptance of pinched profit margin, going out of business.

When supply-side subsidies (ie. for sellers) are removed, they lose a source of revenue which may or may not be computed based on output (production). Same options apply.

Going out of business is uncommon, but it happens occasionally when enterprises have been started up pretty much only for the purpose of milking subsidies (ie. the subsidy is the entirety of what makes the enterprise profitable).

Subsidies often have the effect of pulling future consumption into the present. Having pocketed tomorrow's sales today, suppliers end up having to adjust to sales slumps when subsidies end or are reduced.

 

[ytz]

LOL, yet vehicle prices across the board have increased.

Inflation does that.

LOL, matching volumes seems silly.

Not really. Price is a function of volume produced. At its core, battery manufacturing is advanced materials manufacturing, no different than industrial films or advanced plastics. And this means that the more you manufacture, the better you get at making batteries and the lower the price. This learning doesn't go away if subsidies go away. What I describe becomes really obvious if you plot battery prices and cumulative production on a log-log plot (last graph):

Hence the interest in matching volumes.

The big cities in Canada have stated they will be ICE free by 2025

Can you link to any official policy that states they will ban ICEVs in 2025. I have never seen this. No FUD. Link to actual official policy.