Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????

[LittleBlackDevil]

Does anyone really believe polls are accurate?

Canadian polls seem to be more accurate than US ones, at least. As others have noted, last election they were pretty accurate.

It seems realistic, I don't think Erin O'Toole is making great inroads. And what is he going to campaign on? "The federal government should have locked you down more harshly!" and "I would get vaccines out faster!"

These just don't really seem likely to sway any LPC voters over to the CPC and may simply further alienate people who would usually vote CPC.

 

[Navy_Pete]

I wonder if anyone but the liberals or the bloc want a election this spring.

With having seen how the government effectively shuts down for decision making I would personally vote against the liberals if they called an election this spring while all the vaccine issues are up in the air.

I think that the approach they are taking to procuring the vaccines made sense, and the various contracts are fine, with the delay a direct result of no Canadian production facilities at the start (which is being ramped up and hopefully is maintained post COVID as a strategic asset). The rollout is a provincial responsibility, and we're a huge country, so not really surprised it's complicated and running into problems getting rolling, but that will get sorted out. The delay issue is really out of Canada's hands, and different parties in power would have hit the exact same issue with really no alternate options other than to ask nicely to keep shipping us vaccines.

The last thing we need is a federal or provincial election right now though; even though it doesn't change anything in terms of the civil servants in effective control, it really paralyzes Ottawa in getting decisions made, and sure it does the same in the provinces. Honestly one talking head politician in the top is the same as any other talking head at the top for what we're doing.

If one of the parties starts playing stupid games to trigger an election for political gain, I'd be happy to (figuratively) burn their political house down. I've seen similar sentiment expressed elsewhere, so not sure if there wouldn't be a significant backlash, especially outside the core group of party supporters whose votes are really the determining factor in the closely competed ridings.

 

[Altair]

With having seen how the government effectively shuts down for decision making I would personally vote against the liberals if they called an election this spring while all the vaccine issues are up in the air.

I think that the approach they are taking to procuring the vaccines made sense, and the various contracts are fine, with the delay a direct result of no Canadian production facilities at the start (which is being ramped up and hopefully is maintained post COVID as a strategic asset). The rollout is a provincial responsibility, and we're a huge country, so not really surprised it's complicated and running into problems getting rolling, but that will get sorted out. The delay issue is really out of Canada's hands, and different parties in power would have hit the exact same issue with really no alternate options other than to ask nicely to keep shipping us vaccines.

The last thing we need is a federal or provincial election right now though; even though it doesn't change anything in terms of the civil servants in effective control, it really paralyzes Ottawa in getting decisions made, and sure it does the same in the provinces. Honestly one talking head politician in the top is the same as any other talking head at the top for what we're doing.

If one of the parties starts playing stupid games to trigger an election for political gain, I'd be happy to (figuratively) burn their political house down. I've seen similar sentiment expressed elsewhere, so not sure if there wouldn't be a significant backlash, especially outside the core group of party supporters whose votes are really the determining factor in the closely competed ridings.

would a poison pill budget be considered a stupid game?

I assume the CPC would vote against any budget, maybe the bloc as well.

That leaves the NDP and if the Liberals don't give the NDP what they want, that may be enough to plunge the country into a election.

 

[Kilted]

I think that there is a very good chance that there will be an election this year. If. The government lasts till the fall, it will have been two years since the last election, which is around the timeframe that most minority government's last for. The thing is that no one wants to be the one who causes it.

 

[Altair]

I think that there is a very good chance that there will be an election this year. If. The government lasts till the fall, it will have been two years since the last election, which is around the timeframe that most minority government's last for. The thing is that no one wants to be the one who causes it.

There are going to be 2 distinct times for a election.

One centered around the budget, another in the fall if most canadians are vaccinated and the pandemic is at its end.

 

[Good2Golf]

If the NDP voted against the budget, they would give up the leverage they have now with the Liberals, assuming a Liberal majority win thereafter. It wouldn’t be very astute of the NDP to vote against....then again....

 

[Altair]

If the NDP voted against the budget, they would give up the leverage they have now with the Liberals, assuming a Liberal majority win thereafter. It wouldn’t be very astute of the NDP to vote against....then again....

But if they vote for a decidedly unprogressive budget, with goodies for their supporters, there is the green party right there as the alternative.

 

[RangerRay]

By anyone, you mean the public, because we're the only ones to whom it should matter? There's any number of parties that were punished at the polls because the public didn't want an election.

AFAIK the last government to be punished for this was the Pederson Liberals in Ontario a million years ago. But I could be wrong.

 

[Good2Golf]

All three Green MPs? There are more Independents as an ‘alternative’.

Voting FOR the budget keeps them alive as the necessary coalition partner in the minority Govt. Voting AGAINST essentially hands Liberals the win and the lose any real influence. Why would they vote against?

 

[Altair]

All three Green MPs? There are more Independents as an ‘alternative’.

Voting FOR the budget keeps them alive as the necessary coalition partner in the minority Govt. Voting AGAINST essentially hands Liberals the win and the lose any real influence. Why would they vote against?

Independents don't poll at 5 percent nationally.

I just think there are risks if the NDP are propping up the liberals without getting anything in return. Sure, it might save them from the polls for 5-7 months, but it also risks alienating their supporters.

The problem for the NDP is that they don't have any leverage right now. The only thing they have to offer the liberals is propping up their government and preventing a election. But the Liberals likely want a election. So why give any goodies?

 

[dapaterson]

As when things go off the rails n a large scale exercise, all the parties are trying to find someone else to blame the inevitable election on...

 

[Good2Golf]

The problem for the NDP is that they don't have any leverage right now.

They do. They can actually keep Canadians from going to the polls. They just vote with the LPC and the minority continues.

The only thing they have to offer the liberals is propping up their government and preventing a election. But the Liberals likely want a election. So why give any goodies?

See, you just confirmed that the NDP still have leverage, because the Liberals want an election, and the NDP can keep that from happening...at least via votes of confidence.

If the PM want to dissolve government without a poisoned Confidence Vote, he just needs to go to the Governor General Chief Justice Wagner and ask him to dissolve it....it would be a very flakey excuse for dissolution...other than blatant “we want the majority and it’s worth putting Canadians to the polls in the midst of a pandemic to secure it...”

Not nearly the slam dunk some think it will be...

 

[Altair]

They do. They can actually keep Canadians from going to the polls. They just vote with the LPC and the minority continues.


See, you just confirmed that the NDP still have leverage, because the Liberals want an election, and the NDP can keep that from happening...at least via votes of confidence.

If the PM want to dissolve government without a poisoned Confidence Vote, he just needs to go to the Governor General Chief Justice Wagner and ask him to dissolve it....it would be a very flakey excuse for dissolution...other than blatant “we want the majority and it’s worth putting Canadians to the polls in the midst of a pandemic to secure it...”

Not nearly the slam dunk some think it will be...

The NDP have no leverage to get what they want other than preventing a election.

Before they were able to get sick leave and extended CERB, this time all they could say is we prevented a election by completely supporting the liberals 100 percent without getting anything in return.

I'm not sure NDP supporters would be very impressed with that.

 

[Haggis]

The government lasts till the fall, it will have been two years since the last election, which is around the timeframe that most minority government's last for. The thing is that no one wants to be the one who causes it.

Except that this minority government is acting as if it has/will have a majority. The PM will force a vote of no confidence and it may be on what many consider to be a minor item (not the budget) so as to, once again, deflect blame onto someone else.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I think, Jagmeet and his party should think really hard about continued support for the liberals. People are becoming less than enthralled with their support of trudeau. It won't take much, one small slip or one too many supporting of liberal plans, and people will turn on a dime. I myself would like to see them consigned to the wilderness, along with trudeau and his party. The government push to socialism won't help them either. Socialism might be a real fear to people by election time. And the NDP has always been socialist, though we don't see it much anymore. However, an opposing campaign could make a lot of hay by refreshing peoples memories.

 

[Good2Golf]

I think, Jagmeet and his party should think really hard about continued support for the liberals. People are becoming less than enthralled with their support of trudeau. It won't take much, one small slip or one too many supporting of liberal plans, and people will turn on a dime. I myself would like to see them consigned to the wilderness, along with trudeau and his party. The government push to socialism won't help them either. Socialism might be a real fear to people by election time. And the NDP has always been socialist, though we don't see it much anymore. However, an opposing campaign could make a lot of hay by refreshing peoples memories.

where can the majority of the NDPers go? Go further left, or swing through the broad Left-Center band that is LPC land to the right?

 

[Eaglelord17]

where can the majority of the NDPers go? Go further left, or swing through the broad Left-Center band that is LPC land to the right?

The NDP is a party splitting in two. On one hand you have the traditional worker/blue collar based party, on the other you have the socialist/environmentalists. The traditional workers/blue collar guys are quickly shifting to the Conservatives due to how they are quickly abandoning their position as the protectors of the workers in exchange for the more left leaning policies. The socialists/environmentalists are not particularly loyal to the party, just using it as a means to a end, if the Green Party or Liberals offer a better chance of pushing their agendas they will follow them not stick to the NDP.

Could be a complete collapse of that party in a few years if they don't sort out who they want as their base as clearly they can't have both.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

where can the majority of the NDPers go? Go further left, or swing through the broad Left-Center band that is LPC land to the right?

I could give you a few ideas where they should go, however, you'll be overwhelmed with Report to Mods requests for my crucifixion.

 

[PuckChaser]

I could give you a few ideas where they should go, however, you'll be overwhelmed with Report to Mods requests for my crucifixion.

With the forum upgrade, we changed the admin measures scale. We tar and feather now, crucifixion is too barbaric.

- Milnet.ca Staff

 

[daftandbarmy]

where can the majority of the NDPers go? Go further left, or swing through the broad Left-Center band that is LPC land to the right?

They've lost their touch, sadly, with the death of Jack Layton.

I'm no 'leftie', but I can respect a guy who knows what he stands for; like workers rights. Ironically, this tends to pull the NDP into the 'heavy industry' camp, which might be one of the things they've not yet figured out how to play with an increasingly 'white collar' electorate.