Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[Kilted]

It’s much more complicated than “he’s in a minority therefore he’s running” in this situation. He can step down at anytime and pass the reins when ever he so chooses given his current arrangement. That is exactly how it can work.

Can his deal be scuttled and we end up in an election he has to run in? Sure. But the NDP are far too comfortable with this deal. Trudeau wanted a majority to cement his legacy. He tried and Canadians refused to give it to him so he has the next best thing. He’s in a minority situation and able to govern as a majority.

I won’t repeat ad nauseam again why I think he won’t run. But I could see an announcement in early 2023 and either a coronation or a one sided short leadership campaign. Then the new leader arranges an engineered election “ie the new leader wants a new mandate or something like that” but not before he or she has had time to make their name known enough and that the conditions are right.

Your last point is noted though. But trudeau wouldn’t have to be the sitting PM at that time. Brian Mulroney stepped down and didn’t run. I’m sure that Trudeau would be more than happy to remain undefeated.

But, this is just theory crafting at this point in my part. If I get it wrong I get it wrong.

No, Kim Campbell, the sitting Prime Minister ran in the election.

 

[Remius]

No, Kim Campbell, the sitting Prime Minister ran in the election.

After Mulroney stepped down. Of course every sitting PM runs. I didn’t argue that point.

You are missing the part where I said Trudeau won’t be the sitting PM when next election happens.

 

[GR66]

It’s much more complicated than “he’s in a minority therefore he’s running” in this situation. He can step down at anytime and pass the reins when ever he so chooses given his current arrangement. That is exactly how it can work.

Can his deal be scuttled and we end up in an election he has to run in? Sure. But the NDP are far too comfortable with this deal. Trudeau wanted a majority to cement his legacy. He tried and Canadians refused to give it to him so he has the next best thing. He’s in a minority situation and able to govern as a majority.

I won’t repeat ad nauseam again why I think he won’t run. But I could see an announcement in early 2023 and either a coronation or a one sided short leadership campaign. Then the new leader arranges an engineered election “ie the new leader wants a new mandate or something like that” but not before he or she has had time to make their name known enough and that the conditions are right.

Your last point is noted though. But trudeau wouldn’t have to be the sitting PM at that time. Brian Mulroney stepped down and didn’t run. I’m sure that Trudeau would be more than happy to remain undefeated.

But, this is just theory crafting at this point in my part. If I get it wrong I get it wrong.

Maybe if Singh and the NDP were smart they'd see the Conservatives choosing an unpopular leader and the Liberals sitting with an unpopular Trudeau and decide that they should force an election while they have the best chance of maintaining their seats...or even gaining a couple.

Why give the Liberals a chance to put a more popular leader in place giving a place for the anti-Trudeau middle to put their votes? If people are tired of Trudeau and PP isn't trusted by the voters in the middle then the NDP could get the disaffected moderate votes. If the NDP however lets the Liberals put a more popular leader in place then many of those votes could go Liberal instead.

 

[Remius]

I think Singh has realised he will never be PM and his party will only get things done when they have the balance of power with liberal government in power. They will never work with a CPC government and certainly not one with PP at the helm.

The thing is that there won’t be a more “popular” leader running. Seemingly competent? Remains to be seen.

 

[suffolkowner]

It’s much more complicated than “he’s in a minority therefore he’s running” in this situation. He can step down at anytime and pass the reins when ever he so chooses given his current arrangement. That is exactly how it can work.


Your last point is noted though. But trudeau wouldn’t have to be the sitting PM at that time. Brian Mulroney stepped down and didn’t run. I’m sure that Trudeau would be more than happy to remain undefeated.

Is this correct? Will there not have to be a leadership election/convention at least in theory? Was Kim Campbell not elected/chosen by the PC's as Mulroney's succesor?

To me for Trudeau to do to his successor what Mulroney did to Campbell would taint his "legacy" and put the Liberals in a bad position likely for 2 elections.

I think he runs again as he is the Liberals best hope to continue in government. To retain the PM/government all the Liberals have to do is limit the CPC to a non majority. The CPC isn't forming a minority government in this era unless they approach 170 seats. There is no Jack Layton to weaken the Liberal count or for that manner even a viable Green Party to siphon off protest votes.

If the housing market doesn't crash and/or economy tank and thats a big if then I believe Trudeau will be PM again

 

[Remius]

Is this correct? Will there not have to be a leadership election/convention at least in theory? Was Kim Campbell not elected/chosen by the PC's as Mulroney's succesor?

To me for Trudeau to do to his successor what Mulroney did to Campbell would taint his "legacy" and put the Liberals in a bad position likely for 2 elections.

I think he runs again as he is the Liberals best hope to continue in government. To retain the PM/government all the Liberals have to do is limit the CPC to a non majority. The CPC isn't forming a minority government in this era unless they approach 170 seats. There is no Jack Layton to weaken the Liberal count or for that manner even a viable Green Party to siphon off protest votes.

If the housing market doesn't crash and/or economy tank and thats a big if then I believe Trudeau will be PM again

Not I was suggesting. If you read back a bit I see him announcing his intention to step down after either a coronation or relatively easy leadership race. He hands it off. The new leader governs for say 6 months then engineers an election at a time of their choosing.

Good points about the CPC but I suspect that Trudeau is now a liability for the LPC. There is enough depth on the LPC bench to run a new leader I think.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Here's a story about Canadians being shitty.

A PEI pub's staff took pictures with Trudeau when he visited. When they posted the pictures on Facebook they immediately received a backlash of negative comments and threats from Canadians. The pub took the pictures down but the abuse continued, including having one of their delivery vans damaged. Terrible behavior.


Typically, Team Trudeau (MP Heath MacDonald in this case) blames right-wing extremism.

Is the message here that any Anti-Trudeau sentiment has to be right-wing extremists? Is it possible the people behaving shitty towards this pub are just Canadians fed up with Trudeau and not having a more productive or intelligent way of showing it?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Canadians are fed up with leaders who are just people who were born with a running start in life and do a lot to protect the positions of themselves and their peers.

 

[suffolkowner]

Not I was suggesting. If you read back a bit I see him announcing his intention to step down after either a coronation or relatively easy leadership race. He hands it off. The new leader governs for say 6 months then engineers an election at a time of their choosing.

Good points about the CPC but I suspect that Trudeau is now a liability for the LPC. There is enough depth on the LPC bench to run a new leader I think.

Ok I understand better. Still to me he/they better get hopping 2.5 yrs goes by pretty quick and other than Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney I dont have an idea who would be the front runner and what the party membership would favour.

I still think the temptation to win a 4th term and beat PP would be great. I just think how disturbed my conservative friends would be by a Pierre Polievre defeat would be and how potentially disastrous it would be to the CPC party

 

[RangerRay]

If people are tired of Trudeau and PP isn't trusted by the voters in the middle then the NDP could get the disaffected moderate votes. If the NDP however lets the Liberals put a more popular leader in place then many of those votes could go Liberal instead.

I can’t ever see the NDP appealing to moderates, at least not at the federal level. They constantly attempt to appeal to the left fringe of the Liberals, even when the Liberals are appealing to soft NDP support.

 

[TacticalTea]

I can’t ever see the NDP appealing to moderates, at least not at the federal level. They constantly attempt to appeal to the left fringe of the Liberals, even when the Liberals are appealing to soft NDP support.

Not at this time, for sure. Back under Layton? Yeah probably. He was great and left us too soon.

At this point, as Remius indicated, Singh is in about the same position as Trudeau: knows it's only downhill from here, thus attempting to cement their legacy before time runs out.

It would be in Canada's best interest to see both replaced.

 

[RangerRay]

Not at this time, for sure. Back under Layton? Yeah probably. He was great and left us too soon.

At this point, as Remius indicated, Singh is in about the same position as Trudeau: knows it's only downhill from here, thus attempting to cement their legacy before time runs out.

It would be in Canada's best interest to see both replaced.

Except Layton sold himself short, trying to position himself as where ABC should park their vote. What the NDP should do is go after the Liberals hard for their hypocrisy and internal contradictions. When they attack the Tories, leftists get scared and vote Liberal as the “sure thing” against the Tories.

Harper tried to destroy the Liberals, making it a binary choice between Conservatives and NDP. Problem was, Layton didn’t see that and played the same card the NDP always had. What helped them in 2011 was an ineffective Liberal leader and an ineffective Bloq.

 

[Furniture]

Typically, Team Trudeau (MP Heath MacDonald in this case) blames right-wing extremism.

Is the message here that any Anti-Trudeau sentiment has to be right-wing extremists? Is it possible the people behaving shitty towards this pub are just Canadians fed up with Trudeau and not having a more productive or intelligent way of showing it?

I can understand people going after the business online, it's been normalized over the course of the last several years by both sides doing the same thing elsewhere in Canada and the US. In Ottawa people were trying to ruin the businesses that supported the convoy when it first arrived. It's not right, but it is predictable...

 

[Brad Sallows]

Layton was playing a long game to squeeze out the LPC between the NDP and CPC. Did well in one federal election, led the LPC under Dion into an almost successful bid to form a coalition. Probably would not have panicked like Mulcair did if tolerating another CPC minority would have furthered the destruction of the LPC.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Trudeau has been a busy bee last month.

120 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide into the environment, ouch.

Prime minister spent all but 11 days last month in the air ​

OTTAWA — As the prime minister and his family kick off August with a two-week Costa Rica vacation, he leaves behind a July with more time spent in the air than he did during the entirety of last summer — including a 5,500 km flight to spend six hours at the Calgary Stampede.

Data collected from online flight tracker websites show Justin Trudeau spent all but 11 days of July aboard CANFORCE ONE, flying a total of 26,238 km across 20 flights, all within Canada.

That’s compared to 26,059 km flown between June 1 and Aug. 31, 2021 — including last summer’s G7 summit in the U.K., as well as the June 13-15 NATO summit in Belgium.

 

[Remius]

Trudeau has been a busy bee last month.

120 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide into the environment, ouch.

Prime minister spent all but 11 days last month in the air​

Like I said. He’s on his legacy tour. He’s more popular abroad than at home.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Like I said. He’s on his legacy tour. He’s more popular abroad than at home.

Possible, but all those 26,000KMs flying & burning fossile fuel were spent inside Canada.

 

[Remius]

Possible, but all those 26,000KMs flying & burning fossile fuel were spent inside Canada.

I wonder how much of that was following the pope lol

 

[Halifax Tar]

Possible, but all those 26,000KMs flying & burning fossile fuel were spent inside Canada.

Rules for thee but not for me

 

[Jarnhamar]

I wonder how much of that was following the pope lol

Equilivant of flying 3 times around the planet. Maybe the Pope was hiding evidence all over Canada and the PM was going behind him and collecting it.

On the bright side it looks like Trudeau may have finally learned a lesson or two. I'm reading he checked with the ethics commissioner before going on vacation just to make sure he wasn't breaking any rules.