I still have faith Ont and Que will with a small push from the Maritimes will ensure our vaunted leader keeps his gov.
I think Trudeau sees himself as the guardian from on high holding back some Mongol hoard.
I'm not sure how Trudeau sees himself, but I am 99.99% sure that literally millions of Canadians - not all of the 5.5 million who voted
Liberal in 2021, but a lot of them - really
fear a
Tory government. There are two problems that I see:
1. while the progressive media has not tempered its attacks on the Conservatives, fewer and fewer Canadians are paying attention; and
2. despite relentless media attacks, both Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole gathered more votes, albeit much, much less efficiently, that did Prime Minister Trudeau in 2019 and 2021.
Both those issues are big problem for the
Liberal Party.
A bigger problem is the Andrew Leslie effect - fewer and fewer good
Liberals (and unlike some of my friends, I think there are quite a few) are willing to stand for election because of, inter alia,
"ethical things." The Trudeau brand is tainted and this time it goes well beyond prairie populist discontent.
Another problem is that
I think that Canadians, about 30 years ago, decided that eight to 10 years is the unwritten but generally accepted "term limit" for any prime minister. If Prime Minister Trudeau is serious about running in the next election then he will do so just as his "best-before-date" is about to come up.
My guess is that many Canadians, including many
progressive and even some
Liberal Canadians, are just tired of Justin Trudeau and their political ennui will outweigh their distaste for the
Conservatives.