Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[suffolkowner]

Right now the CPC belongs to Mr Poilievre; I think his position as leader is unassailable. But see the many comments, some of which I have posted, about his general 'dislikability.'

I think there could be a charismatic LPC leader who could hold Mr Poilievre to a minority or even, almost miraculously, scrape up a weak Liberal minority but I'm afraid that (s)he is not in the current cabinet, maybe not even in the caucus.

My hunch is that Mr Poilievre will win a majority in 2025, not matter who leads the Liberals, with something just below 40% of the popular vote and will then turn out to be a disappointment to enough Canadians to allow the LPC to return to power, but with a minority, again, in 2029. Then, circa 2030, it will be time for both parties to get serious about selecting leaders.

I cant say Im really looking forward to a Liberal return to power so soon. They need a bigger timeout IMO. A couple CPC minority governments sound made to order

 

[Edward Campbell]

I cant say Im really looking forward to a Liberal return to power so soon. They need a bigger timeout IMO. A couple CPC minority governments sound made to order

I think of lot of people share your view.

 

[suffolkowner]

I think of lot of people share your view.

I dont normally vote CPC or Liberal although I made an exception in the last federal election and am likely to do the same in the next. One of the things that bothers me the most about this Liberal government is their seemingly complete lack of interest in governing. I dont think its too much to expect a Minister to read their emails

 

[brihard]

Right now the CPC belongs to Mr Poilievre; I think his position as leader is unassailable. But see the many comments, some of which I have posted, about his general 'dislikability.'

I think there could be a charismatic LPC leader who could hold Mr Poilievre to a minority or even, almost miraculously, scrape up a weak Liberal minority but I'm afraid that (s)he is not in the current cabinet, maybe not even in the caucus.

My hunch is that Mr Poilievre will win a majority in 2025, not matter who leads the Liberals, with something just below 40% of the popular vote and will then turn out to be a disappointment to enough Canadians to allow the LPC to return to power, but with a minority, again, in 2029. Then, circa 2030, it will be time for both parties to get serious about selecting leaders.

I think you’re right on the money save your LPC minority prediction for 2029. I just do my feel comfortable predicting that far out. But this election is still very up in the air in terms of what the balance of power will look like, even if it seems obvious who will get the first kick at the cat.

With the LPC, given how dreary their prospects are this time around, I think anyone waiting in the wings will probably wait a bit longer so that Trudeau eats the election loss before stepping down. I doubt anyone relishes their chances of mounting a leadership campaign and then a general election in quick succession under the LPC’s present circumstances.

I could be wrong though. There are always people attracted to power, even against long odds.

 

[suffolkowner]

I think you’re right on the money save your LPC minority prediction for 2029. I just do my feel comfortable predicting that far out. But this election is still very up in the air in terms of what the balance of power will look like, even if it seems obvious who will get the first kick at the cat.

With the LPC, given how dreary their prospects are this time around, I think anyone waiting in the wings will probably wait a bit longer so that Trudeau eats the election loss before stepping down. I doubt anyone relishes their chances of mounting a leadership campaign and then a general election in quick succession under the LPC’s present circumstances.

I could be wrong though. There are always people attracted to power, even against long odds.

Im of the opinion he should eat the loss. Not foist it on an underling like Mulroney-Campbell

 

[The Bread Guy]

Im of the opinion he should eat the loss. Not foist it on an underling like Mulroney-Campbell

In a just world, for sure - we'll see. My guess is his ego may keep him there until the bitter end.

 

[JLB50]

That man is so tone deaf it’s unbelievable. He literally is the dead weight of the LPC that is dragging the party down to the murky depths...

All my life I’ve pretty much been a centrist…slightly left on some issues and slightly right on others. I know a lot of folks here will never forgive Justin for his handling of the Covid crisis. Personally, however, I think it was perhaps his finest moment during some very very dark days, even though mistakes were made.

Having said that, the time for the LPC has come and gone. The party is either totally corrupt, totally at a loss for ideas or has lost touch with what most people are feeling…and it’s probably a combination of all three. The housing crisis is not just something the feds should be dealing with…it’s something the provincial and municipal leaders have long ignored. But the fact that the problem is happening clear across this great land screams for our national government to take the lead in solving it. Unfortunately they haven’t and the problem has now grown so complex with so many influencing factors that Justin and his ilk are running around like chickens with their heads cut off. They don’t have a clue what they should be doing.

The Temporary Foreign Workers fiasco along with the overall immigration and refugee policy are hugely unpopular with most Canadians, and deservedly so. Countless people—thugs and terrorists—have been allowed into the country with little to no security checks. I must say, I’ve never seen so many young people seemingly without much hope for the future. Not to mention so many people living on the streets…the Unhoused as they are now called…as if a new label makes things better.

On the international scene, I really don’t think that Justin wants Canada to have much of a military and the government is now beginning to throw some money in that direction only because our allies are pretty much forcing him to. A Churchill or a Zelenskyy he is definitely not. He is a pretty boy who tells us over and over that he is here for us but, when push comes to shove, never really proves it.

I could go on and on about what Justin, Freeland and the Liberals backing them have done to this country. And I wish I could say that I will vote for the LPC in the next election. But I won’t. I feel that Trudeau needs to have his sorry ass kicked out of office and the LPC is so out of control that it needs to be savagely defeated. Perhaps then it will re-think its raison d’être and re-build the party to be a true party of the people.

If I had a higher opinion of Poilievre and the party structure behind him I would gladly vote Conservative, especially if I felt it would be a minority government. When the election comes, knowing I won’t vote for the LPC candidate in my riding, I’m going to be losing quite a bit of sleep figuring out how I will vote.

 

[Remius]

All my life I’ve pretty much been a centrist…slightly left on some issues and slightly right on others. I know a lot of folks here will never forgive Justin for his handling of the Covid crisis. Personally, however, I think it was perhaps his finest moment during some very very dark days, even though mistakes were made.

Having said that, the time for the LPC has come and gone. The party is either totally corrupt, totally at a loss for ideas or has lost touch with what most people are feeling…and it’s probably a combination of all three. The housing crisis is not just something the feds should be dealing with…it’s something the provincial and municipal leaders have long ignored. But the fact that the problem is happening clear across this great land screams for our national government to take the lead in solving it. Unfortunately they haven’t and the problem has now grown so complex with so many influencing factors that Justin and his ilk are running around like chickens with their heads cut off. They don’t have a clue what they should be doing.

The Temporary Foreign Workers fiasco along with the overall immigration and refugee policy are hugely unpopular with most Canadians, and deservedly so. Countless people—thugs and terrorists—have been allowed into the country with little to no security checks. I must say, I’ve never seen so many young people seemingly without much hope for the future. Not to mention so many people living on the streets…the Unhoused as they are now called…as if a new label makes things better.

On the international scene, I really don’t think that Justin wants Canada to have much of a military and the government is now beginning to throw some money in that direction only because our allies are pretty much forcing him to. A Churchill or a Zelenskyy he is definitely not. He is a pretty boy who tells us over and over that he is here for us but, when push comes to shove, never really proves it.

I could go on and on about what Justin, Freeland and the Liberals backing them have done to this country. And I wish I could say that I will vote for the LPC in the next election. But I won’t. I feel that Trudeau needs to have his sorry ass kicked out of office and the LPC is so out of control that it needs to be savagely defeated. Perhaps then it will re-think its raison d’être and re-build the party to be a true party of the people.

If I had a higher opinion of Poilievre and the party structure behind him I would gladly vote Conservative, especially if I felt it would be a minority government. When the election comes, knowing I won’t vote for the LPC candidate in my riding, I’m going to be losing quite a bit of sleep figuring out how I will vote.

Hopefully the Canada Future Party runs a candidate in your riding. I’m hoping one runs in mine.

 

[RangerRay]

There’s nothing saying Trudeau has to step down if he loses…the LPC is now pretty much his cult.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Which prominent House Liberals who are realistic leadership contenders have established positions of standing apart from the Trudeau PMO sufficiently to claim to be "different"?

 

[brihard]

There’s nothing saying Trudeau has to step down if he loses…the LPC is now pretty much his cult.

Respectfully, no, that’s inaccurate. The Liberal party constitution requires a “Leadership Endorsement Ballot” no later than the first party convention after any general election in which their leader fails to become or remain the PM. This is essentially a confidence referendum on leadership open to all registered party members, with some sort of results weighting formula. If the current leader does not win the endorsement ballot, that triggers a leadership election.

So, if the Liberals lose the election, at a minimum the membership of the party will get a confidence vote in Trudeau. More likely, IMO, that he’d announce a more structured path to leadership transition that would involve him stepping down on a schedule some time past the election to allow an orderly leadership transition, without the new leader having to ride out the full term right from the first year, and allowing him to probably retire from Parliament not immediately after the election. Obviously this part is me speculating.

 

[YZT580]

Respectfully, no, that’s inaccurate. The Liberal party constitution requires a “Leadership Endorsement Ballot” no later than the first party convention after any general election in which their leader fails to become or remain the PM. This is essentially a confidence referendum on leadership open to all registered party members, with some sort of results weighting formula. If the current leader does not win the endorsement ballot, that triggers a leadership election.

So, if the Liberals lose the election, at a minimum the membership of the party will get a confidence vote in Trudeau. More likely, IMO, that he’d announce a more structured path to leadership transition that would involve him stepping down on a schedule some time past the election to allow an orderly leadership transition, without the new leader having to ride out the full term right from the first year, and allowing him to probably retire from Parliament not immediately after the election. Obviously this part is me speculating.

with his ego I would more imagine him leaving on the first available chartered jet. "I will just take my bat and go home, so there". And he will blame all Canadians for not being mature enough to see his vision for Canada when he does it. Your way would be the 'adult' way to do it.

 

[Rifleman62]

The Liberals are a gang. They have shown bobble headed, trained seals behavior for the past 9 years. Zero Ministerial accountability, ethics', what ethics, word salad responses, etc. The fifth estate has failed in their responsibility. Plus, they should get out of Toronto/Ottawa and feel the rest of Canada.

PP will have one hell of a time trying to get Canada into shape. Just the debt that Trudeau blew money into, more than all the PMs of Canda combined. The media will be in to PP immediately. If you think $16 orange juice was a "scandal", just wait. The media is just salivating waiting for PP to be in government.

Can't wait for Trudeau to depart to never never land or Timbuktu especially when he finds out his aircraft is not available at his beck and call.

Just as an aside, Harris went from below zero in an instant thanks to the media. I don't think she has the chops, but what is the alternative?

 

[ArmyRick]

Another excellent video from Northern Perspective that shows Liberal MP Karina Gould (who has very low polling approval in her own riding) not answering questions or changing the questions to give fluffy answers she wants to

And of course lets invoke the "right extremist" boogeyman

 

[Halifax Tar]

Interesting little exchange

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830028664265740355

 

[The Bread Guy]

Putting this here because of the politics involved more than discussing the ISR-Hamas fight.

Only just heard of this via this podcast (discussion starts around minute 53) earlier this evening - seems some of Team Red's political hires, whose job is to politic for their ministers, don't want to politic because of Canada's position on Israel ...

The Liberal Party of Canada is facing a revolt by ministerial staffers, mostly of Arab and Muslim origin, over the Trudeau government's handling of the war in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict generally.

Fifty-two Arab and Muslim staffers working in the Liberal government signed a letter addressed to "the leader of the Liberal Party" that says they will not participate in its byelection campaign to hold on to the seat of Lasalle–Émard–Verdun, left vacant by the resignation of former Liberal justice minister David Lametti.

Referring to "the increasing push for Liberal staff members to phone bank and door knock," the letter obtained by CBC News warns that "while many of us started our political careers in elections as volunteers, we can no longer in good conscience campaign for a party that excludes us and our values." ...

... and are getting some help from friends of the cause

... Staffers are not acting alone. They have also asked for and received the support of a group of influential Arab and Muslim donors to the Liberal Party known as the Network 100-GTA, London, Ottawa, Montreal.

Back in November, the Network announced it was pulling out of the Liberal Party's top donor ranks over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's disinclination at the time to call for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict ...

You know it's bad when the people you hire, literally, to fly Team Red's colours does shit that helps (in this case) Team Blue instead of the home team.

One National Post columnist, while disagreeing with the stance, likes the "shit or get off the pot" push by the political operators ....

Chris Selley: Cheers to the Liberal backroom renegades, even if I disagree

The party still seems to think it can somehow split the difference on Israel and Gaza. It can't.

nationalpost.com

NP piece also here if original link doesn't work.