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Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

Right now the CPC belongs to Mr Poilievre; I think his position as leader is unassailable. But see the many comments, some of which I have posted, about his general 'dislikability.'

I think there could be a charismatic LPC leader who could hold Mr Poilievre to a minority or even, almost miraculously, scrape up a weak Liberal minority but I'm afraid that (s)he is not in the current cabinet, maybe not even in the caucus.

My hunch is that Mr Poilievre will win a majority in 2025, not matter who leads the Liberals, with something just below 40% of the popular vote and will then turn out to be a disappointment to enough Canadians to allow the LPC to return to power, but with a minority, again, in 2029. Then, circa 2030, it will be time for both parties to get serious about selecting leaders.
I cant say Im really looking forward to a Liberal return to power so soon. They need a bigger timeout IMO. A couple CPC minority governments sound made to order
 
I think of lot of people share your view.
I dont normally vote CPC or Liberal although I made an exception in the last federal election and am likely to do the same in the next. One of the things that bothers me the most about this Liberal government is their seemingly complete lack of interest in governing. I dont think its too much to expect a Minister to read their emails
 
Right now the CPC belongs to Mr Poilievre; I think his position as leader is unassailable. But see the many comments, some of which I have posted, about his general 'dislikability.'

I think there could be a charismatic LPC leader who could hold Mr Poilievre to a minority or even, almost miraculously, scrape up a weak Liberal minority but I'm afraid that (s)he is not in the current cabinet, maybe not even in the caucus.

My hunch is that Mr Poilievre will win a majority in 2025, not matter who leads the Liberals, with something just below 40% of the popular vote and will then turn out to be a disappointment to enough Canadians to allow the LPC to return to power, but with a minority, again, in 2029. Then, circa 2030, it will be time for both parties to get serious about selecting leaders.
I think you’re right on the money save your LPC minority prediction for 2029. I just do my feel comfortable predicting that far out. But this election is still very up in the air in terms of what the balance of power will look like, even if it seems obvious who will get the first kick at the cat.

With the LPC, given how dreary their prospects are this time around, I think anyone waiting in the wings will probably wait a bit longer so that Trudeau eats the election loss before stepping down. I doubt anyone relishes their chances of mounting a leadership campaign and then a general election in quick succession under the LPC’s present circumstances.

I could be wrong though. There are always people attracted to power, even against long odds.
 
I think you’re right on the money save your LPC minority prediction for 2029. I just do my feel comfortable predicting that far out. But this election is still very up in the air in terms of what the balance of power will look like, even if it seems obvious who will get the first kick at the cat.

With the LPC, given how dreary their prospects are this time around, I think anyone waiting in the wings will probably wait a bit longer so that Trudeau eats the election loss before stepping down. I doubt anyone relishes their chances of mounting a leadership campaign and then a general election in quick succession under the LPC’s present circumstances.

I could be wrong though. There are always people attracted to power, even against long odds.
Im of the opinion he should eat the loss. Not foist it on an underling like Mulroney-Campbell
 
That man is so tone deaf it’s unbelievable. He literally is the dead weight of the LPC that is dragging the party down to the murky depths...
All my life I’ve pretty much been a centrist…slightly left on some issues and slightly right on others. I know a lot of folks here will never forgive Justin for his handling of the Covid crisis. Personally, however, I think it was perhaps his finest moment during some very very dark days, even though mistakes were made.

Having said that, the time for the LPC has come and gone. The party is either totally corrupt, totally at a loss for ideas or has lost touch with what most people are feeling…and it’s probably a combination of all three. The housing crisis is not just something the feds should be dealing with…it’s something the provincial and municipal leaders have long ignored. But the fact that the problem is happening clear across this great land screams for our national government to take the lead in solving it. Unfortunately they haven’t and the problem has now grown so complex with so many influencing factors that Justin and his ilk are running around like chickens with their heads cut off. They don’t have a clue what they should be doing.

The Temporary Foreign Workers fiasco along with the overall immigration and refugee policy are hugely unpopular with most Canadians, and deservedly so. Countless people—thugs and terrorists—have been allowed into the country with little to no security checks. I must say, I’ve never seen so many young people seemingly without much hope for the future. Not to mention so many people living on the streets…the Unhoused as they are now called…as if a new label makes things better.

On the international scene, I really don’t think that Justin wants Canada to have much of a military and the government is now beginning to throw some money in that direction only because our allies are pretty much forcing him to. A Churchill or a Zelenskyy he is definitely not. He is a pretty boy who tells us over and over that he is here for us but, when push comes to shove, never really proves it.

I could go on and on about what Justin, Freeland and the Liberals backing them have done to this country. And I wish I could say that I will vote for the LPC in the next election. But I won’t. I feel that Trudeau needs to have his sorry ass kicked out of office and the LPC is so out of control that it needs to be savagely defeated. Perhaps then it will re-think its raison d’être and re-build the party to be a true party of the people.

If I had a higher opinion of Poilievre and the party structure behind him I would gladly vote Conservative, especially if I felt it would be a minority government. When the election comes, knowing I won’t vote for the LPC candidate in my riding, I’m going to be losing quite a bit of sleep figuring out how I will vote.
 
All my life I’ve pretty much been a centrist…slightly left on some issues and slightly right on others. I know a lot of folks here will never forgive Justin for his handling of the Covid crisis. Personally, however, I think it was perhaps his finest moment during some very very dark days, even though mistakes were made.

Having said that, the time for the LPC has come and gone. The party is either totally corrupt, totally at a loss for ideas or has lost touch with what most people are feeling…and it’s probably a combination of all three. The housing crisis is not just something the feds should be dealing with…it’s something the provincial and municipal leaders have long ignored. But the fact that the problem is happening clear across this great land screams for our national government to take the lead in solving it. Unfortunately they haven’t and the problem has now grown so complex with so many influencing factors that Justin and his ilk are running around like chickens with their heads cut off. They don’t have a clue what they should be doing.

The Temporary Foreign Workers fiasco along with the overall immigration and refugee policy are hugely unpopular with most Canadians, and deservedly so. Countless people—thugs and terrorists—have been allowed into the country with little to no security checks. I must say, I’ve never seen so many young people seemingly without much hope for the future. Not to mention so many people living on the streets…the Unhoused as they are now called…as if a new label makes things better.

On the international scene, I really don’t think that Justin wants Canada to have much of a military and the government is now beginning to throw some money in that direction only because our allies are pretty much forcing him to. A Churchill or a Zelenskyy he is definitely not. He is a pretty boy who tells us over and over that he is here for us but, when push comes to shove, never really proves it.

I could go on and on about what Justin, Freeland and the Liberals backing them have done to this country. And I wish I could say that I will vote for the LPC in the next election. But I won’t. I feel that Trudeau needs to have his sorry ass kicked out of office and the LPC is so out of control that it needs to be savagely defeated. Perhaps then it will re-think its raison d’être and re-build the party to be a true party of the people.

If I had a higher opinion of Poilievre and the party structure behind him I would gladly vote Conservative, especially if I felt it would be a minority government. When the election comes, knowing I won’t vote for the LPC candidate in my riding, I’m going to be losing quite a bit of sleep figuring out how I will vote.
Hopefully the Canada Future Party runs a candidate in your riding. I’m hoping one runs in mine.
 
There’s nothing saying Trudeau has to step down if he loses…the LPC is now pretty much his cult.
Respectfully, no, that’s inaccurate. The Liberal party constitution requires a “Leadership Endorsement Ballot” no later than the first party convention after any general election in which their leader fails to become or remain the PM. This is essentially a confidence referendum on leadership open to all registered party members, with some sort of results weighting formula. If the current leader does not win the endorsement ballot, that triggers a leadership election.

So, if the Liberals lose the election, at a minimum the membership of the party will get a confidence vote in Trudeau. More likely, IMO, that he’d announce a more structured path to leadership transition that would involve him stepping down on a schedule some time past the election to allow an orderly leadership transition, without the new leader having to ride out the full term right from the first year, and allowing him to probably retire from Parliament not immediately after the election. Obviously this part is me speculating.
 
Respectfully, no, that’s inaccurate. The Liberal party constitution requires a “Leadership Endorsement Ballot” no later than the first party convention after any general election in which their leader fails to become or remain the PM. This is essentially a confidence referendum on leadership open to all registered party members, with some sort of results weighting formula. If the current leader does not win the endorsement ballot, that triggers a leadership election.

So, if the Liberals lose the election, at a minimum the membership of the party will get a confidence vote in Trudeau. More likely, IMO, that he’d announce a more structured path to leadership transition that would involve him stepping down on a schedule some time past the election to allow an orderly leadership transition, without the new leader having to ride out the full term right from the first year, and allowing him to probably retire from Parliament not immediately after the election. Obviously this part is me speculating.
with his ego I would more imagine him leaving on the first available chartered jet. "I will just take my bat and go home, so there". And he will blame all Canadians for not being mature enough to see his vision for Canada when he does it. Your way would be the 'adult' way to do it.
 
The Liberals are a gang. They have shown bobble headed, trained seals behavior for the past 9 years. Zero Ministerial accountability, ethics', what ethics, word salad responses, etc. The fifth estate has failed in their responsibility. Plus, they should get out of Toronto/Ottawa and feel the rest of Canada.

PP will have one hell of a time trying to get Canada into shape. Just the debt that Trudeau blew money into, more than all the PMs of Canda combined. The media will be in to PP immediately. If you think $16 orange juice was a "scandal", just wait. The media is just salivating waiting for PP to be in government.

Can't wait for Trudeau to depart to never never land or Timbuktu especially when he finds out his aircraft is not available at his beck and call.

Just as an aside, Harris went from below zero in an instant thanks to the media. I don't think she has the chops, but what is the alternative?
 
Another excellent video from Northern Perspective that shows Liberal MP Karina Gould (who has very low polling approval in her own riding) not answering questions or changing the questions to give fluffy answers she wants to

And of course lets invoke the "right extremist" boogeyman

 
Putting this here because of the politics involved more than discussing the ISR-Hamas fight.

Only just heard of this via this podcast (discussion starts around minute 53) earlier this evening - seems some of Team Red's political hires, whose job is to politic for their ministers, don't want to politic because of Canada's position on Israel ...
The Liberal Party of Canada is facing a revolt by ministerial staffers, mostly of Arab and Muslim origin, over the Trudeau government's handling of the war in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict generally.

Fifty-two Arab and Muslim staffers working in the Liberal government signed a letter addressed to "the leader of the Liberal Party" that says they will not participate in its byelection campaign to hold on to the seat of Lasalle–Émard–Verdun, left vacant by the resignation of former Liberal justice minister David Lametti.

Referring to "the increasing push for Liberal staff members to phone bank and door knock," the letter obtained by CBC News warns that "while many of us started our political careers in elections as volunteers, we can no longer in good conscience campaign for a party that excludes us and our values." ...
... and are getting some help from friends of the cause
... Staffers are not acting alone. They have also asked for and received the support of a group of influential Arab and Muslim donors to the Liberal Party known as the Network 100-GTA, London, Ottawa, Montreal.

Back in November, the Network announced it was pulling out of the Liberal Party's top donor ranks over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's disinclination at the time to call for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict ...
You know it's bad when the people you hire, literally, to fly Team Red's colours does shit that helps (in this case) Team Blue instead of the home team.

One National Post columnist, while disagreeing with the stance, likes the "shit or get off the pot" push by the political operators ....
NP piece also here if original link doesn't work.
 
John Ibbitson, who is remarkably well connected to both the CPC and LPC braintrusts, writing in the Globe and Mail, says that the Palestinian situation, writ large, is tearing the Liberal party apart:

----------

Liberal staffers’ rebellion reveals growing tension over party’s stand on Gaza conflict​

More than 50 Liberal ministerial staffers, mostly of Muslim and Arab origin, are refusing to volunteer in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election because they object to their own party’s stand on the conflict in Gaza, revealing how deeply that conflict is tearing at the Liberal Party.

And while this speaks to the internal division of a tired government, it also reveals how starkly polarized Canadians have become over the Middle East.

Evan Dyer and Raffy Boudjikanian reported for CBC News last week that 52 Liberal staffers working in ministers’ offices had sent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a letter saying they refused to work as volunteers in the Montreal riding because they objected to their own party’s and their own government’s position on the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

“While many of us started our political careers in elections as volunteers, we can no longer in good conscience campaign for a party that excludes us and our values,” they wrote, demanding that the Liberal government condemn Israel’s actions and recognize Palestine as a state.

I have to say I have never heard of anything like this at any level of government, ever. Ministerial staffers are not public servants. They are hired to work for, and promote, their minister and their government. During elections and by-elections, they leave their job and work on the campaign. They are party partisans. These partisans have gone on strike.

Former MP Marlene Jennings was one of a number of Liberal loyalists who publicly expressed their outrage at the mutiny. “If those staffers actually had the little bit of democratic values/fundamental ethics, they would have resigned en masse,” she tweeted. “But they don’t, do they!”

All this is dismal news for the Liberals. LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is typically a safe seat for them. But so was Toronto-St. Paul’s, which the Conservatives snatched away in a by-election in June. And the NDP and Bloc Québécois both think they have a shot at stealing the riding away from the Grits on Sept. 16. There will be other volunteers available, but the optics are appalling.

A prime minister who faces open rebellion from within the ranks of his own party’s staffers should think long and hard about taking a walk in the autumn leaves.

But this rebellion also speaks to deepening fissures within Canada itself over the Middle East. The Conservatives have always stood four-square with Israel. “I am a friend of the State of Israel, and I will be a friend of the State of Israel everywhere I go,” Pierre Poilievre declared at a synagogue in Montreal in April.

The NDP is more supportive of the rights of Palestinians. In March, the party put forward in the House a non-binding motion to recognize a Palestinian state and to ban the sale of military goods and technology to Israel. The Liberals were able to get their supply-and-confidence partners to water down the motion’s wording, which eventually passed with the support of both parties and the Bloc Québécois.

But three Liberal MPs voted against the motion, deeming it too critical of Israel. Now Muslim and Arab staffers are protesting that their party is too supportive of Israel.

The Liberal government has condemned the horrific Hamas attacks of Oct. 7. It supports Israel’s right to defend itself. It is alarmed by the civilian casualties in Gaza. It promotes a ceasefire, the return of hostages and the resumption of negotiations aimed at seeking a two-state solution to the decades of strife.

That is the position of most Western governments, and I suspect of most Canadians.

Perhaps a less tired government, a more experienced foreign minister (Mélanie Joly is the Liberals’ fifth), a more statesmanlike prime minister would be able to contain and even reconcile those tensions within the party and the country. These Liberals cannot.

Ugly things are happening in our land. Palestinian supporters are harassing, intimidating and frightening Jewish Canadians on campuses and in their community. Political parties are polarizing around pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli sentiments.

And the one party that has always tried to achieve balance in this decades-old dispute, that was a leading contributor to the creation of the state of Israel, that helped broker an end to the Suez Crisis and contributed peacekeepers to the region for decades, is no longer able to contain the tensions here at home, or even within itself.

----------

Mr Ibbitson quite clearly is, and I believe we all should be, worried by the polarization that the Palestinian conflicts - the plural matters, I think - are having on the Canadian body politic and on Canadian society at large.

I believe that most Conservative supporters (but that's less than 35% of Canadians) are also pro-Israel; I think most NDP supporters (< 15%) are pro-Palestinian or, more likely anti-Semitic and anti-Israel; many Liberals seem to me to be deeply conflicted by the Palestinian - Israel/Jewish questions (again, I think the plural matters a lot) - just like the 50%± of the country at large.
 
John Ibbitson, who is remarkably well connected to both the CPC and LPC braintrusts, writing in the Globe and Mail, says that the Palestinian situation, writ large, is tearing the Liberal party apart:

----------

Liberal staffers’ rebellion reveals growing tension over party’s stand on Gaza conflict​

More than 50 Liberal ministerial staffers, mostly of Muslim and Arab origin, are refusing to volunteer in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election because they object to their own party’s stand on the conflict in Gaza, revealing how deeply that conflict is tearing at the Liberal Party.

And while this speaks to the internal division of a tired government, it also reveals how starkly polarized Canadians have become over the Middle East.

Evan Dyer and Raffy Boudjikanian reported for CBC News last week that 52 Liberal staffers working in ministers’ offices had sent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a letter saying they refused to work as volunteers in the Montreal riding because they objected to their own party’s and their own government’s position on the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

“While many of us started our political careers in elections as volunteers, we can no longer in good conscience campaign for a party that excludes us and our values,” they wrote, demanding that the Liberal government condemn Israel’s actions and recognize Palestine as a state.

I have to say I have never heard of anything like this at any level of government, ever. Ministerial staffers are not public servants. They are hired to work for, and promote, their minister and their government. During elections and by-elections, they leave their job and work on the campaign. They are party partisans. These partisans have gone on strike.

Former MP Marlene Jennings was one of a number of Liberal loyalists who publicly expressed their outrage at the mutiny. “If those staffers actually had the little bit of democratic values/fundamental ethics, they would have resigned en masse,” she tweeted. “But they don’t, do they!”

All this is dismal news for the Liberals. LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is typically a safe seat for them. But so was Toronto-St. Paul’s, which the Conservatives snatched away in a by-election in June. And the NDP and Bloc Québécois both think they have a shot at stealing the riding away from the Grits on Sept. 16. There will be other volunteers available, but the optics are appalling.

A prime minister who faces open rebellion from within the ranks of his own party’s staffers should think long and hard about taking a walk in the autumn leaves.

But this rebellion also speaks to deepening fissures within Canada itself over the Middle East. The Conservatives have always stood four-square with Israel. “I am a friend of the State of Israel, and I will be a friend of the State of Israel everywhere I go,” Pierre Poilievre declared at a synagogue in Montreal in April.

The NDP is more supportive of the rights of Palestinians. In March, the party put forward in the House a non-binding motion to recognize a Palestinian state and to ban the sale of military goods and technology to Israel. The Liberals were able to get their supply-and-confidence partners to water down the motion’s wording, which eventually passed with the support of both parties and the Bloc Québécois.

But three Liberal MPs voted against the motion, deeming it too critical of Israel. Now Muslim and Arab staffers are protesting that their party is too supportive of Israel.

The Liberal government has condemned the horrific Hamas attacks of Oct. 7. It supports Israel’s right to defend itself. It is alarmed by the civilian casualties in Gaza. It promotes a ceasefire, the return of hostages and the resumption of negotiations aimed at seeking a two-state solution to the decades of strife.

That is the position of most Western governments, and I suspect of most Canadians.

Perhaps a less tired government, a more experienced foreign minister (Mélanie Joly is the Liberals’ fifth), a more statesmanlike prime minister would be able to contain and even reconcile those tensions within the party and the country. These Liberals cannot.

Ugly things are happening in our land. Palestinian supporters are harassing, intimidating and frightening Jewish Canadians on campuses and in their community. Political parties are polarizing around pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli sentiments.

And the one party that has always tried to achieve balance in this decades-old dispute, that was a leading contributor to the creation of the state of Israel, that helped broker an end to the Suez Crisis and contributed peacekeepers to the region for decades, is no longer able to contain the tensions here at home, or even within itself.

----------

Mr Ibbitson quite clearly is, and I believe we all should be, worried by the polarization that the Palestinian conflicts - the plural matters, I think - are having on the Canadian body politic and on Canadian society at large.

I believe that most Conservative supporters (but that's less than 35% of Canadians) are also pro-Israel; I think most NDP supporters (< 15%) are pro-Palestinian or, more likely anti-Semitic and anti-Israel; many Liberals seem to me to be deeply conflicted by the Palestinian - Israel/Jewish questions (again, I think the plural matters a lot) - just like the 50%± of the country at large.

Thats Good Finding Nemo GIF
 
John Ibbitson, who is remarkably well connected to both the CPC and LPC braintrusts, writing in the Globe and Mail, says that the Palestinian situation, writ large, is tearing the Liberal party apart:

----------

Liberal staffers’ rebellion reveals growing tension over party’s stand on Gaza conflict​

More than 50 Liberal ministerial staffers, mostly of Muslim and Arab origin, are refusing to volunteer in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election because they object to their own party’s stand on the conflict in Gaza, revealing how deeply that conflict is tearing at the Liberal Party.

And while this speaks to the internal division of a tired government, it also reveals how starkly polarized Canadians have become over the Middle East.

Evan Dyer and Raffy Boudjikanian reported for CBC News last week that 52 Liberal staffers working in ministers’ offices had sent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a letter saying they refused to work as volunteers in the Montreal riding because they objected to their own party’s and their own government’s position on the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

“While many of us started our political careers in elections as volunteers, we can no longer in good conscience campaign for a party that excludes us and our values,” they wrote, demanding that the Liberal government condemn Israel’s actions and recognize Palestine as a state.

I have to say I have never heard of anything like this at any level of government, ever. Ministerial staffers are not public servants. They are hired to work for, and promote, their minister and their government. During elections and by-elections, they leave their job and work on the campaign. They are party partisans. These partisans have gone on strike.

Former MP Marlene Jennings was one of a number of Liberal loyalists who publicly expressed their outrage at the mutiny. “If those staffers actually had the little bit of democratic values/fundamental ethics, they would have resigned en masse,” she tweeted. “But they don’t, do they!”

All this is dismal news for the Liberals. LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is typically a safe seat for them. But so was Toronto-St. Paul’s, which the Conservatives snatched away in a by-election in June. And the NDP and Bloc Québécois both think they have a shot at stealing the riding away from the Grits on Sept. 16. There will be other volunteers available, but the optics are appalling.

A prime minister who faces open rebellion from within the ranks of his own party’s staffers should think long and hard about taking a walk in the autumn leaves.

But this rebellion also speaks to deepening fissures within Canada itself over the Middle East. The Conservatives have always stood four-square with Israel. “I am a friend of the State of Israel, and I will be a friend of the State of Israel everywhere I go,” Pierre Poilievre declared at a synagogue in Montreal in April.

The NDP is more supportive of the rights of Palestinians. In March, the party put forward in the House a non-binding motion to recognize a Palestinian state and to ban the sale of military goods and technology to Israel. The Liberals were able to get their supply-and-confidence partners to water down the motion’s wording, which eventually passed with the support of both parties and the Bloc Québécois.

But three Liberal MPs voted against the motion, deeming it too critical of Israel. Now Muslim and Arab staffers are protesting that their party is too supportive of Israel.

The Liberal government has condemned the horrific Hamas attacks of Oct. 7. It supports Israel’s right to defend itself. It is alarmed by the civilian casualties in Gaza. It promotes a ceasefire, the return of hostages and the resumption of negotiations aimed at seeking a two-state solution to the decades of strife.

That is the position of most Western governments, and I suspect of most Canadians.

Perhaps a less tired government, a more experienced foreign minister (Mélanie Joly is the Liberals’ fifth), a more statesmanlike prime minister would be able to contain and even reconcile those tensions within the party and the country. These Liberals cannot.

Ugly things are happening in our land. Palestinian supporters are harassing, intimidating and frightening Jewish Canadians on campuses and in their community. Political parties are polarizing around pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli sentiments.

And the one party that has always tried to achieve balance in this decades-old dispute, that was a leading contributor to the creation of the state of Israel, that helped broker an end to the Suez Crisis and contributed peacekeepers to the region for decades, is no longer able to contain the tensions here at home, or even within itself.

----------

Mr Ibbitson quite clearly is, and I believe we all should be, worried by the polarization that the Palestinian conflicts - the plural matters, I think - are having on the Canadian body politic and on Canadian society at large.

I believe that most Conservative supporters (but that's less than 35% of Canadians) are also pro-Israel; I think most NDP supporters (< 15%) are pro-Palestinian or, more likely anti-Semitic and anti-Israel; many Liberals seem to me to be deeply conflicted by the Palestinian - Israel/Jewish questions (again, I think the plural matters a lot) - just like the 50%± of the country at large.
I'm definitely not sad to see that the LPC is reaping the whirlwind... They mastered the art of wedge politics, now that wedge is being driven into their own party.
 
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